Blog

In-brief analysis

Oct 9, 2025

We estimate crude oil inventories in China increased by about 900,000 barrels per day (b/d) between January and August this year, essentially acting as a source of demand by removing barrels from the global markets. The stock builds in China limited the downward price pressure we would otherwise expect to see with growing inventories, keeping the Brent crude oil spot prices in a relatively tight range around $68 per barrel (b) in the second and third quarters of 2025.

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In-brief analysis

Oct 7, 2025

The United States is well stocked with propane heading into the winter. For the week ending September 26, U.S. propane inventory was 103 million barrels, about 13 million barrels more than the previous five-year average for this time of year, based on data in our Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

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In-brief analysis

Oct 6, 2025

Data source: CME Group, Bloomberg L.P.
Note: 3Q25=third quarter of 2025

Crude oil prices were relatively stable in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), ending the quarter just 9 cents per barrel (b) less than they started, while refinery margins increased to their highest levels so far this year. In this quarterly update, we review petroleum markets price developments in 3Q25, covering crude oil prices and refinery margins.

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In-brief analysis

Oct 3, 2025

The value of all energy trade between the United States and Mexico was estimated to be $57 billion in 2024, down from nearly $72 billion in 2023, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. A combination of lower petroleum output from Mexico and lower fuel prices, particularly for petroleum products that make up the bulk of the cross-border energy trade between the two countries, drove most of the decrease.

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In-brief analysis

Oct 1, 2025

In 2023, Texas consumed more energy than any other state. Total energy consumption in Texas was twice as much as in California, the second-highest consuming state, and more than three times as much as in Florida, the third-highest consuming state, according to recently released data in our State Energy Data System (SEDS). U.S. total energy use peaked in 2007, and between 2007 and 2023, Texas’s energy consumption increased 21%, while U.S. energy use decreased 5%. According to our SEDS data, most of the energy consumption growth in Texas is attributable to increased industrial activity, population, and electricity demand.

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In-brief analysis

Sep 29, 2025

Two electricity markets in the Midwest still generate more electricity from coal than from natural gas in at least some months of the year: Southwest Power Pool (SPP) and the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO). We expect these two regions will generate more electricity from coal than from natural gas in some upcoming winter months, based on forecasts in our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.

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In-brief analysis

Sep 26, 2025

Growth in distributed solar generation capacity has driven growth in total electricity generation capacity in Brazil since 2019. Distributed solar generation capacity grew from less than 1 gigawatt (GW) in 2018 to 40 GW in 2025 through June, accounting for 43% of all electricity capacity additions over that period.

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In-brief analysis

Sep 24, 2025

In our September Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. total distillate inventories to end 2025 and 2026 at lower levels than previous years because of significant inventory draws in 2025, strong export demand, and domestic production declines stemming from refinery closures. In the weeks since the publication of this forecast, U.S. distillate inventories have increased substantially, but they remain relatively low. Distillate fuel oil includes both diesel fuel used in vehicles and home heating oil. Lower distillate inventories elevate the risk of higher prices and price volatility from supply disruptions, especially during periods of high demand like the autumn harvest and winter heating season.

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In-brief analysis

Sep 22, 2025

In our annual survey of power plant activity, we ask operators of utility-scale batteries how they are using their systems, and one use case is increasingly prevalent: price arbitrage. Arbitrage involves buying electricity when prices are relatively low and selling that electricity when prices are high.

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In-brief analysis

Sep 19, 2025

Over the past few years, net electricity inflows from Canada into New York (New York Independent System Operator, or NYISO) and New England (Independent System Operator of New England, or ISO-NE) have decreased. We identified this trend in an analysis in 2024, and the trend has continued through the first eight months of 2025. From January through August 2025, daily net electricity imports from Canada into ISO-NE averaged less than 40% of those occurring over the same months in 2022. During the same period, NYISO and Canada net trade fell to 25% what it was during the same months of 2022.

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In-brief analysis

Sep 17, 2025

Data source: Vortexa Analytics
Note: Europe includes countries in the European Union, Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.

In early 2023, the European Union implemented a ban on seaborne imports of diesel fuel, commonly called gasoil, from Russia following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine the previous year. The ban reoriented trade flows as Europe imported more diesel from the Middle East and the United States rather than Russia. This summer, Europe’s increased reliance on imports from the Middle East, coupled with conflict-related disruptions to refineries and escalating geopolitical tensions, contributed to a tightened global diesel market.

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In-brief analysis

Sep 15, 2025

Per capita CO₂ emissions from primary energy consumption decreased in every state from 2005 to 2023, according to recently released data in our State Energy Data System. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions in the United States fell 20% over that time, and the population grew by 14%, leading to a 30% decrease in per capita CO₂ emissions.

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In-brief analysis

Sep 11, 2025

Data source: Natural Gas Intelligence
Note: Prices are adjusted for inflation based on June 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index data.

Monthly average natural gas spot prices in the northwestern United States reached historic lows in 2025, as ample supply from Canada coincided with subdued regional demand for natural gas-fired electricity. At Northwest Sumas, a key pricing hub for natural gas in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, the daily spot price averaged $1.59 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025 through August and reached its lowest ever monthly average price of $0.56/MMBtu in June, according to data from Natural Gas Intelligence. The monthly average price for the first eight months of this year is the lowest for this period of any year since at least 1999, and it is about 17% lower than in this same period in 2024.

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In-brief analysis

Sep 9, 2025

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics database; The Energy Institute’s 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy
Note: The natural gas balance estimate is calculated by subtracting each country’s annual natural gas consumption from its respective annual natural gas production.

In August 2025, Egyptian firm Blue Ocean Energy struck a $35 billion deal with partners in the Chevron-operated Leviathan field offshore of Israel to import more natural gas from Israel, the latest move by Egypt to meet natural gas demand that is outpacing domestic production. In our latest update to the Eastern Mediterranean Energy briefing, we discuss the drivers behind Egypt’s dwindling natural gas supply and analyze the natural gas dynamics in the region.

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In-brief analysis

Sep 4, 2025

U.S. imports of biodiesel and renewable diesel significantly decreased in the first half of 2025 (1H25) compared with the same period in previous years. This decline is primarily due to the loss of tax credits for imported biofuels and generally lower domestic consumption of these fuels.

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