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  • OBR productivity forecast may add £20bn to Budget hole

    OBR productivity forecast may add £20bn to Budget hole

    The chancellor is facing a larger-than-expected gap in initial Budget numbers as a result of long-running poor productivity in the UK economy.

    The downgrade to productivity performance from the government’s official forecaster could lead to a £20bn gap in the public finances on its own, the BBC understands.

    The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will deliver its final draft forecast, showing the output of the economy per hour worked, to the Treasury on Friday.

    The Treasury declined to comment on “speculation” ahead of the OBR’s final forecast, which will be published on 26 November.

    It comes as speculation is growing over what choices Chancellor Rachel Reeves will take for tax and spending in the run up to her Autumn Budget.

    The OBR previously assumed a partial bounce back in productivity growth, but it has never materialised.

    This productivity assumption is essential to long-term growth prospects and so, under the current system, even a fraction of a percentage point change can alter how much money a Budget needs to raise by several billion pounds.

    The OBR is understood to have downgraded this by 0.3 percentage points – a figure first reported by the Financial Times – bringing its assumption closer to that of the Bank of England.

    The Institute for Fiscal Studies think-tank has calculated that for every 0.1 percentage point downgrade in the productivity forecast, public sector net borrowing would increase by £7bn in 2029-30 – meaning a 0.3 point cut could add £21bn to the Budget hole.

    The changes open up an initial gap of some £20bn, rather than the £10-£14bn widely anticipated.

    Such a hole could be plugged by hiking taxes, reducing public spending or increasing government borrowing.

    Reeves admitted on Monday to business leaders in Saudi Arabia that the OBR was “likely to downgrade productivity” which has been “very poor since the financial crisis and Brexit”.

    The OBR is expected to explain the decision in detail, but some ministers have privately pointed out that if it had done this earlier, different choices could have been made at this summer’s Spending Review.

    There are many other moving parts in the Budget which may lean in the other direction, such as the decline in the interest rates paid on government debt.

    However, with other pressures such as the U-turns on welfare spending and a desire to rebuild a bigger buffer in the public finances, speculation is pointing towards significant tax rises including some possible breaches of manifesto commitments, points towards significant tax rises, including possible breaches of manifesto commitments like income tax.

    The Treasury will inform the OBR of its first draft Budget measures next week.

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  • ‘Impossible’ Life Found Beneath Arctic Ice Could Alter Climate Models : ScienceAlert

    ‘Impossible’ Life Found Beneath Arctic Ice Could Alter Climate Models : ScienceAlert

    Scientists have discovered special life forms thriving under Arctic sea ice. Until now, their presence in these dark and frigid conditions wasn’t thought possible, and the findings could have global implications for the climate.

    Nitrogen gas…

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  • Brendan Rodgers resigns as Celtic manager – France 24

    1. Brendan Rodgers resigns as Celtic manager  France 24
    2. Celtic: Brendan Rodgers resigns as manager amid Dermot Desmond criticism; Martin O’Neill returns  BBC
    3. Brendan Rodgers leaves Celtic Football Club  Celtic FC
    4. Chris Sutton calls for Ange Postecoglou…

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  • Microsoft WSUS attacks hit ‘multiple’ orgs, Google warns • The Register

    Microsoft WSUS attacks hit ‘multiple’ orgs, Google warns • The Register

    More threat intel teams are sounding the alarm about a critical Windows Server Update Services (WSUS) remote code execution vulnerability, tracked as CVE-2025-59287 and now under active exploitation, just days after Microsoft pushed an emergency…

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  • Trump describes Russia’s new cruise missile test as ‘not appropriate’ | Russia

    Trump describes Russia’s new cruise missile test as ‘not appropriate’ | Russia

    Donald Trump has described Vladimir Putin’s announcement of a nuclear-powered cruise missile test as “not appropriate” amid growing tensions between Moscow and Washington.

    Putin said on Sunday that Russia had successfully tested its…

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  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 set to continue run above 50,000 as Trump meets Takaichi

    Japan’s Nikkei 225 set to continue run above 50,000 as Trump meets Takaichi

    U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Japan’s Emperor Naruhito at the Imperial Palace in Tokyo on Oct. 27, 2025.

    Kazuhiro Nogi | Afp | Getty Images

    Japan’s Nikkei 225 is set to continue its record-breaking climb above the 50,000 mark on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump is set to meet with newly minted Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

    Futures signaled further gains for Tokyo stocks, with the Nikkei contract in Chicago at 50,700 and its Osaka counterpart at 50,520, compared with Monday’s close of 50,512.32.

    Trump met Japan’s Emperor Naruhito after arriving in Tokyo on Monday and will be the first foreign leader to hold talks with Takaichi since she took office.

    Other Asia-Pacific markets are set to open mixed on Tuesday, despite gains on Wall Street that saw all three major U.S. indexes reach record closing highs.

    Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures were at 26,534, higher than the HSI’s last close of 26,433.7.

    Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 started the day down 0.21%.

    Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 climbed 1.23% to 6,875.16, its first close ever above the 6,800 level.

    The Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.86% to 23,637.46, bolstered by a rise in Nvidia and other chip stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 337.47 points, or 0.71% to 47,544.59. 

    Key market catalysts loom ahead this week, including Big Tech earnings, a Federal Reserve rate decision and a potential China trade deal.

    — CNBC’s John Melloy, Sean Conlon and Liz Napolitano contributed to this report.

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  • Norrie eager for Alcaraz test: 'I'm going to take it to him' – ATP Tour

    1. Norrie eager for Alcaraz test: ‘I’m going to take it to him’  ATP Tour
    2. Carlos Alcaraz vs Cameron Norrie Prediction: Can Norrie’s Grit Challenge Alcaraz’s Indoor Firepower?  Telecom Asia Sport
    3. Paris Masters Round-Up: Andrey Rublev snaps losing…

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  • LIFE-BTK: 3-Year Data Keep Dissolving Scaffold’s Durability Hopes Alive in CLTI

    LIFE-BTK: 3-Year Data Keep Dissolving Scaffold’s Durability Hopes Alive in CLTI

    The everolimus scaffold, which had mostly disappeared by 3 years, was still associated with fewer reinterventions than PTA.

    A drug-eluting resorbable scaffold continues to keep many patients with below-the-knee (BTK) chronic limb-threatening ischemia (CLTI) free from repeat procedures, even after most of the device’s structure has completely dissolved, 3-year data from the LIFE-BTK trial show.

    The combined primary efficacy endpoint—freedom from above-ankle amputation in the index limb, occlusion of the target vessel, binary restenosis of the target lesion, and clinically driven target lesion revascularization—was 59.5% in those treated with the everolimus-eluting Esprit BTK (Abbott) and 44.8% in percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) patients (P = 0.025).

    According to LIFE-BTK principal investigator Sahil Parikh, MD (NewYork-Presbyterian/Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY), who presented the findings in a late-breaking clinical science session at TCT 2025, the 3-year observations indicate that the scaffold is mostly dissolved, with visible remnants remaining in some patients.

    “There is little evidence that it was there,” he told TCTMD. “There was a little bit of concern over what happens when the structure collapses with time and the answer is nothing. . . . It should behave like a normal artery, including with respect to reintervention.”

    The scaffold consists of a bioresorbable poly-L lactide backbone with thin struts equivalent to contemporary coronary DES and a coating of everolimus. It was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration in 2024 and received CE Mark in 2025 on the basis of the 1-year results from LIFE-BTK, and it remains the only completely dissolvable therapy for peripheral interventions. The 2-year data showed that the percentage of patients who had more than one clinically driven TLR was nearly doubled in the PTA arm compared with the scaffold (4.7% vs 2.4%)

    No safety issues have been seen throughout the 3 years in patients who received the scaffold versus those treated with PTA, with no evidence that the dissolving scaffold elicits any sort of inflammatory process or scaffold thrombosis, Parikh added.

    The 3-year mark signifies the end of the protocol-mandated imaging follow-up for patients in LIFE-BTK, but clinical follow-up will continue for the surviving patients at years 4 and 5.

    Following the presentation, discussant Eric Secemsky, MD (Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA), said LIFE-BTK is “revolutionary” for below-the-knee interventions for several reasons.

    Having data suggesting a greater than 50% chance that patients will be alive with a patent vessel and without needing an amputation at 3 years, “completely changes how we train our fellows and how we take care of this disease pathology,” he said.

    Beyond favorable angiographic and duplex ultrasound endpoints, Secemsky said LIFE-BTK provides tangible hope for patients that the scaffold can help them avoid repeat peripheral procedures, something that is especially important for younger, working patients who need to stay out of the hospital and in their jobs.

    Results at 3-Year Follow-up

    LIFE-BTK trial enrolled 261 patients (mean age 72.6 years; 32% female) with Rutherford class 4 or 5 CLTI and infrapopliteal artery stenosis or occlusion who were randomly assigned to receive the everolimus-eluting resorbable scaffold or PTA. The protocol mandated that all lesions be located in separate arteries in the proximal two-thirds of the infrapopliteal space and have runoff to the ankle free of clinically significant disease. Participants in both arms had high rates of smoking, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and prior PAD.

    The mean treated lesion length was 43.7 mm in the scaffold group and 44.7 mm in the angioplasty group, with a total scaffold length per patient of 170 mm or less in a single lesion or split among two target lesions. Most patients had mild/no calcification, with more than one-quarter in both arms having moderate calcification, while 3% in the scaffold group and 2% in the PTA group had severe calcification.

    At 3 years, binary restenosis of the target lesion had occurred in 49% of the PTA group versus 38% of the scaffold group (Log-rank P = 0.018).

    Clinically driven TLR  occurred in 18.4% of the PTA group versus 10.2% of the scaffold group (log-rank P = 0.052), while major adverse limb events occurred in 94.2% of PTA patients and 90.8% of scaffold patients (Log-rank P = 0.23).

    In his presentation, Parikh presented evidence from duplex ultrasound showing that patients who receive the scaffold experience some degree of restoration of natural arterial compliance over time. To TCTMD, he said the investigators hope to learn more about pathophysiologic changes and real-world outcomes in a postapproval study at 50 US sites that has almost completed enrollment.

    At 3 years we have evidence of a biological effect that’s durable. Sahil Parikh

    “At 3 years we have evidence of a biological effect that’s durable,” Parikh added. He expects to see longer lesions in the real-world population, as well as greater degrees of calcification than were allowed in the trial, which will require more intense lesion preparation.

    “That’s going to be important because we don’t really have a good sense of how lesion preparation factors into this yet,” he said. While the trial didn’t allow  atherectomy or other aggressive lesion preparation technologies, operators are bound to want to pair some of those with the scaffold in some cases.

    Thus far, the scaffold reflects the positive early experiences of a similar device, the Absorb bioresorbable vascular scaffold (Abbott), which was approved by the FDA in 2016 and gained CE Mark approval 5 year prior. Over time, though, the emergence of scaffold thrombosis in various trials and meta-analyses ended its run in the coronary space.

    In a press conference prior to the presentation, Sanjum Sethi, MD (NewYork-Presbyterian/Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY), said the scaffold treatment represents an attractive option for patients with lesion subtypes similar to those enrolled in LIFE-BTK. He noted that between years 1 and 2, the scaffold group had sustained benefits for the composite of limb salvage and primary patency compared with the PTA group, but then “there was  a little hint that at 3 years these patients may be accruing events from their disease as the device is resorbing.”

    To TCTMD, Parikh said the investigators don’t consider the small amount of catch-up to be clinically concerning at this point, particularly in light of the imaging evidence of arterial improvements.


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  • Patient-Derived Xenograft Mouse Model of a Rare Gynecologic Malignancy: Personalized Medicine for the Treatment of Mesonephric-Like Adenocarcinoma

    Patient-Derived Xenograft Mouse Model of a Rare Gynecologic Malignancy: Personalized Medicine for the Treatment of Mesonephric-Like Adenocarcinoma

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  • Obesity’s health risks shift with age and sex, new genetic study reveals

    Obesity’s health risks shift with age and sex, new genetic study reveals

    A massive UK Biobank analysis reveals that the health risks of obesity shift over time, peaking at different ages for men and women, and that midlife preventive care may blunt its cardiovascular damage.

    Study: Time-resolved…

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