Blog

Light crude oil futures settled at $61.50 on Thursday, up $0.62 or 1.02% for the week so far, with one trading day remaining. The move capped a choppy week marked by cautious optimism surrounding OPEC+ supply restraint, geopolitical developments in the Middle East, and persistent oversupply concerns in the U.S. and global markets. The bullish and bearish factors largely neutralized each other, but near-term direction remains uncertain as traders weigh competing signals heading into next week.

OPEC+ Maintains Cautious Output Path Despite Surplus Risks

A key bullish catalyst during the week was OPEC+’s decision to raise production by just 137,000 barrels per day in November—matching October’s increase and falling below market expectations. Some had anticipated a much larger hike, particularly from Saudi Arabia, which reportedly advocated for a more aggressive supply return to regain market share. In contrast, Russia favored a conservative approach to avoid triggering another wave of price pressure.

The restrained increase signaled internal divisions but ultimately supported prices early in the week. Analysts said the move showed the group’s continued desire to manage the market carefully amid growing forecasts for a global crude surplus in the fourth quarter. However, with OPEC+ production already up by 2.7 million bpd year-to-date, concerns remain that the collective output path could still outpace demand growth going forward.

Geopolitical Developments…

Light crude oil futures settled at $61.50 on Thursday, up $0.62 or 1.02% for the week so far, with one trading day remaining. The move capped a choppy week marked by cautious optimism surrounding OPEC+ supply restraint, geopolitical developments in the Middle East, and persistent oversupply concerns in the U.S. and global markets. The bullish and bearish factors largely neutralized each other, but near-term direction remains uncertain as traders weigh competing signals heading into next week.

OPEC+ Maintains Cautious Output Path Despite Surplus Risks

A key bullish catalyst during the week was OPEC+’s decision to raise production by just 137,000 barrels per day in November—matching October’s increase and falling below market expectations. Some had anticipated a much larger hike, particularly from Saudi Arabia, which reportedly advocated for a more aggressive supply return to regain market share. In contrast, Russia favored a conservative approach to avoid triggering another wave of price pressure.

The restrained increase signaled internal divisions but ultimately supported prices early in the week. Analysts said the move showed the group’s continued desire to manage the market carefully amid growing forecasts for a global crude surplus in the fourth quarter. However, with OPEC+ production already up by 2.7 million bpd year-to-date, concerns remain that the collective output path could still outpace demand growth going forward.

Geopolitical Developments Add Complexity to Supply Outlook

Geopolitical risk added further support to crude prices midweek, with a reported drone strike and fire at Russia’s Kirishi refinery forcing the shutdown of its top distillation unit. The incident is expected to halt operations for up to a month, sidelining meaningful output. Although the disruption had not triggered a sustained rally, it underscored how fragile supply remains in key regions.

Later in the week, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas introduced a potential easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While this development led to a pullback in crude prices into Thursday’s close, the broader implications could be supportive longer term. Analysts highlighted the potential for reduced attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes and renewed talks on Iran’s nuclear program—both of which could significantly impact regional oil supply.

China’s Strategic Stockpiling Offers Medium-Term Support

Also lending structural support to the market was confirmation that China is expanding its strategic petroleum reserve. The country plans to add 169 million barrels of storage capacity across 11 new sites operated by state firms such as Sinopec and PetroChina. Though officially classified as commercial, these reserves are widely seen as part of Beijing’s emergency stockpiling strategy.

Traders noted that while this expansion is unlikely to offset near-term surplus conditions, it could help absorb some global oversupply over time. The effort reflects China’s long-term energy security planning and may serve as a demand backstop during future periods of weak consumption or elevated exports.

Bearish Forces: U.S. Production and Inventories Climb

On the bearish side, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its 2025 crude production forecast to 13.53 million bpd—an all-time high—up from a prior estimate of 13.44 million. The increase was driven by stronger-than-expected offshore production and a resilient showing from the shale sector earlier in the year.

Inventory data also trended bearish. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a weekly crude stock build of 2.78 million barrels, significantly exceeding expectations. Although gasoline and distillate supplies declined, the overall rise in crude stocks reinforced fears of a supply glut heading into the final quarter of the year. The EIA projects global inventories will build by roughly 2 million bpd through the end of the year and into the first half of 2026, keeping pressure on prices.

Oil Majors Respond to Price Pressures with Payout Cuts

Adding to the bearish tone were signs that major oil producers are beginning to scale back shareholder returns in response to falling prices. Chevron, BP, and TotalEnergies have all reduced share buybacks, citing payout strategies that are unsustainable below $80 Brent. TotalEnergies also announced $7.5 billion in cost cuts, highlighting the margin squeeze facing the industry. Capital discipline and workforce reductions are also gaining traction, reflecting expectations for a lower-price environment ahead.

Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures

Trend Indicator Analysis

Light crude oil futures bounced back this week from the previous week’s steep loss, however, the market posted an inside move, suggesting trader indecision and impending volatility.

The market remains in a weak position, facing a headwind at the 52-week moving average at $62.96. As of Thursday’s close, the high of the week is $62.92.

A rally through the 52-week moving average will indicate the presence of buyers with the long-term 50% level at $64.21 the next target. Upside momentum could increase on a sustained move over this level with initial resistance the main top at $66.42. This price appears to be the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

The initial support is the previous week’s low at $60.40, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $59.91. This indicator is the trigger point for a steep break into the nearest main bottom at $55.74.

Weekly Technical Forecast

The direction of the Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures market the week ending October 17 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 52-week moving average at $62.96.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $62.96 will signal the return of buyers. This won’t change the trend, but if this creates enough upside momentum, we could see a retest of a long-term pivot at $64.21. Overcoming this level will signal strong short-covering, which could lead to a test of $66.42.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under the 52-week moving average at $62.96 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could fuel lead to a quick test of $60.40 to $59.91. The latter is a potential trigger point for a potential plunge into the late May swing bottom at $55.74.

Weekly Outlook: Bearish Tilt as Supply Headwinds Persist

Looking ahead, the oil market faces a bearish tilt into next week. While OPEC+ supply restraint and geopolitical flashpoints continue to offer periodic support, these factors have so far failed to reverse the broader pressure from rising inventories and record U.S. output. Without a meaningful demand rebound or further supply disruption, market sentiment is expected to remain defensive. Crude futures may struggle to extend gains unless bullish catalysts emerge that materially shift the current fundamental balance.

Technically, trader reaction to the 52-week moving average at $62.96 will set the tone. Currently, the market is trading on the weak side of this indicator, giving it a bearish tone as we head into the week-end.