Blog

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Oil prices held steady on Thursday as investors assessed a potential trade truce between the United States and China after U.S. President Donald Trump lowered tariffs on China following a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea. Brent futures rose 8 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $65.00 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 9 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $60.57. Trump agreed to reduce tariffs on China to 47% from 57% in a one-year deal in exchange for Beijing resuming U.S. soybean purchases, keeping rare earths exports flowing and cracking down on the illicit fentanyl trade. PVM analyst Tamas Varga said investors see the announced agreement between China and the U.S. as more of a de-escalation of tension than a structural change in the relationship.

Oil majors Shell and TotalEnergies posted quarterly profit falls of 10% and 2% respectively on Thursday, dragged down by lower oil prices, though Shell beat expectations, helped by better trading results in its huge gas division. FED RATE CUT LIFTS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Also helping to boost the economic outlook, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered interest rates on Wednesday, in line with market expectations. However, it signalled that it might be the last cut of the year as the ongoing government shutdown threatens data availability. Lower interest rates reduce consumer borrowing costs and could boost economic growth and oil demand. “The Fed’s decision underscores a broader turn in its policy cycle – one that favours gradual reflation and support over restraint, providing a tailwind to commodities sensitive to economic activity,” Rystad Energy’s chief economist Claudio Galimberti said in a note. In Europe and Asia, meanwhile, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged. The euro zone economy grew a touch more quickly than expected in the third quarter, lifted by buoyant growth in France and Spain that more than offset faltering exports and persistent struggles in Germany’s oversized industrial sector. In Germany, however, gross domestic product stagnated in the third quarter, data showed on Thursday, highlighting the struggle Europe’s biggest economy faces in regaining momentum as exports dwindle. OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS Both crude benchmarks were on track to decline by around 3% in October, which would be their third consecutive month of losses following concerns about oversupply. In the U.S., crude output hit a weekly record high of around 13.6 million barrels per day (bpd) last week. Investors said they were looking ahead to an OPEC+ meeting scheduled for November 2, where the alliance will likely announce another 137,000 bpd supply hike for December. OPEC+ includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies like Russia. In a series of monthly increases, eight OPEC+ members had boosted output targets by a total of more than 2.7 million bpd – or about 2.5% of global supply. In Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, the budget deficit widened to 88.5 billion riyals ($23.60 billion) in the third quarter, a 160% rise from the previous quarter as spending increased and revenues fell, the finance ministry said on Thursday.

($1 = 3.7504 riyals)

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York, Enes Tunagur in London, Mohi Narayan in New Delhi and Colleen Howe in Beijing; Editing by Edwina Gibbs, Jamie Freed, Bernadette Baum, Jane Merriman, Joe Bavier and Diane Craft)