Keefe, Bruyette & Woods downgraded Berkshire Hathaway to underperform, warning that Warren Buffett’s succession risk and a slew of business-specific headwinds could weigh on the conglomerate’s earnings and share performance over the next year. The brokerage slashed its rating to the equivalent of sell from neutral, and cut its price target for Berkshire’s Class A shares to $700,000 from $740,000, implying a 5% downside from Friday’s close of $738,500. “Beyond our ongoing concerns surrounding macro uncertainty and Berkshire’s historically unique succession risk … we think the shares will underperform as earnings challenges emerge and/or persist,” analysts led by Meyer Shields wrote in a note to clients. KBW said the company’s core businesses — from auto insurer Geico to railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe — are likely to face simultaneous pressures in the year ahead, reflecting a mix of cyclical and structural challenges across the conglomerate’s portfolio. The analysts pointed to softer insurance investment income, weaker railroad growth and shrinking energy tax credits as mounting headwinds for Berkshire’s sprawling operations. The Omaha-based conglomerate has underperformed the S & P 500 this year as the stock tumbled double digits from all-time highs after the 95-year-old Buffett in May announced he’s stepping down as CEO at the year-end after six legendary decades. The sell-off partially reflects the so-called Buffett premium, or the extra price investors are willing to pay because of the billionaire’s unmatched record and exceptional capital allocation skills. BRK.A YTD mountain Berkshire Hathaway year to date Berkshire’s succession uncertainty reflects “Warren Buffett’s likely unrivaled reputation and what we see as unfortunately inadequate disclosure that will probably deter investors once they can no longer rely on Mr. Buffett’s presence at Berkshire Hathaway,” KBW said in the note titled “Many Things Moving in the Wrong Direction.” Berkshire’s B shares are up 8.6%. in 2024 as of Friday, compared to the 15.5% year-to-date gain for the S & P 500. The stock is lagging the equity benchmark by 6.9 percentage points, marking the largest gap it’s been all year. Moving in the Wrong Direction? For the second quarter, Berkshire’s operating profit dipped 4% year over year to $11.16 billion, impacted by a decline in insurance underwriting. KBW expects insurance profitability to weaken further as Geico lowers personal auto rates and ramps up marketing spending in an effort to regain market share. Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group is also facing a less favorable backdrop, the firm said. A mild hurricane season has weighed on property-catastrophe reinsurance pricing, a trend that could reduce both premium volumes and profitability in the coming quarters, KBW said. Investment income, a key earnings driver in recent years, is expected to soften as well. With short-term interest rates declining, returns on Berkshire’s massive cash and Treasury portfolio are likely to come under pressure, limiting a source of steady income that has bolstered recent results. Buffett’s cash hoard of $344.1 billion remained near a record high at the end of June. At the railroad division, Burlington Northern Santa Fe’s inflation-adjusted revenue has historically moved in tandem with U.S.–China trade activity. KBW cautioned that persistent tariff pressures and weaker trade flows could continue to constrain growth. Berkshire Hathaway Energy also may see its profitability erode as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” accelerates the phase-out of clean-energy tax credits, KBW said. The policy shift could diminish the returns of future renewable projects and weigh on the conglomerate’s long-term energy earnings, it said. The conglomerate is set to report third-quarter earnings Saturday morning.
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(Reuters) -Qualcomm on Monday unveiled two artificial intelligence chips for data centers, with commercial availability from next year, as it pushes to diversify beyond smartphones and expand into the fast-growing AI infrastructure market.
Shares of Qualcomm surged nearly 15% on the news.
The new chips, called AI200 and AI250, are designed for improved memory capacity and running AI applications, or inference, and will be available in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
Global investment in AI chips has soared as cloud providers, chipmakers and enterprises rush to build infrastructure capable of supporting complex, large language models, chatbots and other generative AI tools.
Nvidia chips, however, underpin much of the current AI boom.
Qualcomm, to strengthen its AI portfolio, agreed to buy Alphawave in June, which designs semiconductor tech for data centers, for about $2.4 billion.
In May, Qualcomm also said it would make custom data center central processing units that use technology from Nvidia to connect to the firm’s artificial intelligence chips.
Qualcomm said the new chips support common AI frameworks and tools, with advanced software support, and added they will lower the total cost of ownership for enterprises.
The San Diego-based company also unveiled accelerator cards and racks based on the new chips.
Earlier this month, peer Intel announced a new artificial intelligence chip called Crescent Island for the data center that it plans to launch next year.
(Reporting by Harshita Mary Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore)
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Donald Trump is on course to push US debt levels above those of Italy and Greece by the end of the decade after wide-ranging tax cuts and increased defence spending, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts.
Illustrating the rising debt levels in Washington and efforts made by Rome and Athens to bring spending under control after the 2008 financial crash and Covid-19 pandemic, the IMF predicts the US will see its debts climb from 125% to 143% of annual income by 2030, while Italy’s will flatline at about 137%.
Greece is on track to cut the ratio of debt to gross domestic product (GDP) from 146% to 130% over the same period. According to IMF data, Athens has tackled a budget overspend that raced to 210% as a proportion of GDP in 2020.
Amid tax cuts for high earners, the US is expected to run annual budget deficits of more than 7% over the next five years, while Italy is due to cut its spending shortfall this year to 2.9%, allowing it to meet a 3% limit set by Brussels a year early, in analysis first reported in the Financial Times.
Trump increased US government spending and cut federal taxes in the “big, beautiful bill”, passed by Congress in the summer, forcing the White House to rely more heavily on borrowing to fund annual spending.
The US president reversed efforts under the previous Biden administration to limit the size of the US deficit, offering tax cuts that will benefit mostly middle and high income groups. He has also pledged to build a “golden dome” defence shield, which could cost almost $1tn.
Spending increases could push the budget deficit higher by $7tn a year by the time Trump is due to leave office in January 2029.
Both Italy and Greece have committed to maintaining primary budget surpluses, which entail cuts in spending to below the incomes from tax receipts.
Italy’s growth rate is expected to average 0.5% over the next couple of years. Its population is falling due to a declining birthrate and a level of emigration that hit 200,000 last year, but Italy has seen average household incomes recover.
Lorenzo Codogno, the head of Lorenzo Codogno Macro Advisors and a former chief economist at Italy’s treasury department, said there was pressure on Giorgia Meloni’s government to increase spending in the wake of Trump’s tariffs and his demands for bigger European defence budgets.
He said: “The economy and public finances remain vulnerable to a sudden negative shift in the global scenario.”
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Mahmood Pradhan, head of global macro at the Amundi Investment Institute, told the FT: “It is a symbolic moment, and according to the Congressional Budget Office the projections are for US debt to carry on rising – that is the impact of running perpetual deficits.
“But Italy has a weaker growth outlook than the US, so this should not be read as meaning Italy is out of the woods.”
James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, said: “Many US politicians and investors look down somewhat on Europe and its slow growth and struggling economies, but when you have metrics like this, the conversation changes.”
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