Blog

More than a million ChatGPT users each week send messages that include “explicit indicators of potential suicidal planning or intent”, according to a blogpost published by OpenAI on Monday. The finding, part of an update on how the chatbot handles sensitive conversations, is one of the most direct statements from the artificial intelligence giant on the scale of how AI can exacerbate mental health issues.

In addition to its estimates on suicidal ideations and related interactions, OpenAI also said that about 0.07 of users active in a given week – about 560,000 of its touted 800m weekly users – show “possible signs of mental health emergencies related to psychosis or mania”. The post cautioned that these conversations were difficult to detect or measure, and that this was an initial analysis.

As OpenAI releases data on mental health issues related to its marquee product, the company is facing increased scrutiny following a highly publicized lawsuit from the family of a teenage boy who died by suicide after extensive engagement with ChatGPT. The Federal Trade Commission last month additionally launched a broad investigation into companies that create AI chatbots, including OpenAI, to find how they measure negative impacts on children and teens.

OpenAI claimed in its post that its recent GPT-5 update reduced the number of undesirable behaviors from its product and improved user safety in a model evaluation involving more than 1,000 self-harm and suicide conversations. The company did not immediately return a request for comment.

“Our new automated evaluations score the new GPT‑5 model at 91% compliant with our desired behaviors, compared to 77% for the previous GPT‑5 model,” the company’s post reads.

OpenAI stated that GPT-5 expanded access to crisis hotlines and added reminders for users to take breaks during long sessions. To make improvements to the model, the company said it enlisted 170 clinicians from its Global Physician Network of health care experts to assist its research over recent months, which included rating the safety of its model’s responses and helping write the chatbot’s answers to mental-health related questions.

“As part of this work, psychiatrists and psychologists reviewed more than 1,800 model responses involving serious mental health situations and compared responses from the new GPT‑5 chat model to previous models,” OpenAI said. The company’s definition of “desirable” involved determining whether a group of its experts reached the same conclusion about what would be an appropriate response in certain situations.

AI researchers and public health advocates have long been wary of chatbots’ propensity to affirm users’ decisions or delusions regardless of whether they may be harmful, an issue known as sycophancy. Mental health experts have also been concerned about people using AI chatbots for psychological support and warned how it could harm vulnerable users.

The language in OpenAI’s post distances the company from any potential causal links between its product and the mental health crises that its users are experiencing.

skip past newsletter promotion

after newsletter promotion

“Mental health symptoms and emotional distress are universally present in human societies, and an increasing user base means that some portion of ChatGPT conversations include these situations,” OpenAI’s post stated.

OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman earlier this month claimed in a post on X that the company had made advancements in treating mental health issues, announcing that OpenAI would ease restrictions and soon begin to allow adults to create erotic content.

“We made ChatGPT pretty restrictive to make sure we were being careful with mental health issues. We realize this made it less useful/enjoyable to many users who had no mental health problems, but given the seriousness of the issue we wanted to get this right,” Altman posted. “Now that we have been able to mitigate the serious mental health issues and have new tools, we are going to be able to safely relax the restrictions in most cases.”

The UK domestic airline Eastern Airways has suspended operations and all of its flights have been cancelled.

Customers of the airline, which operated regional services from airports across the UK, are urged not to go to the airport as flights will not be operating, the UK Civil Aviation Authority said.

The airline flew to destinations including Aberdeen, Humberside, Gatwick, Newquay, Teesside International and Wick John O’Groats, according to its website.

On Monday morning the company filed a notice of intention to appoint an administrator at the insolvency and companies court within the high court.

Selina Chadha, consumer and markets director at the UK Civil Aviation Authority, said: “We urge passengers planning to fly with this airline not to go to the airport as all Eastern Airways flights are cancelled.

“Eastern Airways customers should visit the Civil Aviation Authority’s website for the latest information.”

In response to the suspension of Eastern Airways operations, London North Eastern Railway, ScotRail, TransPennine Express and Northern would offer free standard-class travel to Eastern Airways staff and customers on 28 and 29 October on suitable routes operated, the UK Civil Aviation Authority said.

To access this support, people should show an Eastern Airways employee ID, boarding pass or flight confirmation to station staff.

Explore this week’s Macro Trends insights from Macrobond with the first installment below.

The US government remains in shutdown, leaving markets with very limited access to official economic data. Still, there is broad expectation that the Fed will move ahead with a rate cut this week:

• ​Data Blackout: With official releases paused, investors rely on alternative data sources to gauge the state of the US economy.​
• ​New Fed Voice: Recently appointed Fed member Stephen Miran has argued for significant rate cuts, potentially pushing the Committee toward a more dovish stance.​
• ​Bull Steepening: As the Fed shifts toward easing, short-term yields have dropped faster than long-term rates. ​How should investors position for this new dynamic?

Markets brace for a Fed rate cut as the US data blackout leaves investors searching for signals.

Diverging Views on the Path of Rates

Insights:

Markets are fully pricing a 25 bp rate cut, with attention shifting to forward guidance rather than the decision itself. ​

​The Fed’s dot plot still signals a gradual easing path, while Fed funds futures expect a faster decline toward ~3% by 2026. That divergence will drive the market reaction.

‍

The Miran Effect

Insights:

Stephen Miran was sworn in as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on September 16, 2025. ​
​
With Miran joining the FOMC, the dot plot took on a new shape — as he stood out as the only member projecting a Fed funds rate below 3%, signaling significant cuts. ​

​The new Fed governor will likely attract extra attention, especially as discussions around Powell’s eventual successor gain momentum.

‍

Bull or Bear Steepener?

Insights:

The Federal Reserve is in a rate-cutting cycle, while Trump’s fiscal policies are pushing longer-term yields higher through expectations of larger deficits and increased Treasury issuance. This mix of monetary easing and fiscal expansion is steepening the yield curve.​

​A key debate now is whether the steepening will be bearish or bullish:​

• A bear steepener if long-term yields rise faster due to inflation and fiscal concerns​
• A bull steepener if short-term rates fall more sharply as markets price in deeper Fed cuts

‍

Average Asset Performance Across Yield Curve Regimes

Insights:

The direction this steepening takes will be crucial for market positioning, as equity valuations and fixed-income returns tend to react very differently under bear versus bull steepening regimes. ​

​In this chart, you can see the historical performance of various equity sectors, fixed income, and gold across these different yield-curve environments.

‍

‍

Alternative Data Takes the Lead on U.S. Labor Trends

Insights

With the U.S. government shutdown halting operations at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), official labor market data — including the monthly Nonfarm Payrolls report — will not be released. ​​This data blackout leaves policymakers and markets without one of their most important economic indicators. In the absence of BLS data, attention will turn to ADP’s private-sector employment report as a key alternative gauge of labor market momentum ahead of the Fed’s upcoming policy decisions.

‍

Inflation Holds Firm Amid Policy Uncertainty

Insights

Last Friday, despite the ongoing government shutdown, markets received fresh economic data — the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September. ​
​
The report showed that inflation remains stubbornly high at 3 percent, reinforcing concerns that price pressures are proving more persistent than the Federal Reserve had hoped. ​

​This resilience in inflation is likely to weigh on the Fed’s upcoming policy discussions, as it complicates the path toward potential rate cuts and raises questions about how long restrictive monetary conditions will need to stay in place.