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The rising costs of coffee beans are keeping roasters and their customers on edge.
Retail coffee prices jumped nearly 21% in August compared to the same time last year, and the Trump administration’s tariffs are partially to blame: In July, Brazil was slapped with one of the highest duties, at 50%, while Vietnam has 20% tariffs and Colombia has 10% tariffs.
America imports more than 99% of its coffee, according to the National Coffee Association. Most of it comes from Brazil — 30.7% of US coffee imports based on net weight, according to the UN Comtrade Database — Colombia (18.3%) and Vietnam (6.6%).
The average price of regular coffee at restaurants in August was 10 cents more than the same time last year, according to data from Toast, a restaurant management software provider. The increase brought the average price to $3.52.
Some relief may be on the way. In September, Rep. Don Bacon, a Republican from Nebraska, and Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna of California, introduced the bipartisan “No Coffee Tax Act” to exempt coffee products from tariffs.
Price hikes may cause some consumers to start brewing their coffee at home, but they will likely continue buying cups from local shops as occasional indulgences.
“(Consumers) may change brands, or they may shop for deals, or perhaps go down in quality — or what they perceive as a quality level — in order to save a little bit of money,” said Erin McLaughlin, a senior economist at the Conference Board, a nonprofit research group.
Coffee drinkers in the nation’s capital are seeing more expensive drip and espressos these days. According to data from Toast, a regular hot coffee in Washington, DC, averaged $4.21 in August, up 4% from last year. And the average price of a cold brew costs $5.35, up 3.7% year-over-year.
Swing’s Coffee Roasters, which was founded in 1916 and has three locations in Virginia and Washington, DC, has been hit with higher-than-usual costs. Owner Mark Warmuth told CNN that Trump’s tariffs caused a “really difficult situation across the board” when combined with environmental and labor factors that make coffee more expensive.
“Consumers are footing the bill for it,” Warmuth said, adding that “the only loser here is the consumer.”
The cost of a single cup could go up about 10 or 15 cents, Warmuth warned. Even if importing beans costs 50% more, it’s unlikely a single cup would also increase 50%.
DC coffee drinkers may wince at the price, but they aren’t likely to give up their caffeine fix.
“(Coffee is) kind of considered an affordable luxury. While it might go from $3 a cup to $3.50 a cup, that may not be enough in downtown DC to cause somebody to change their consumption habits,” he added.
Chris Vigilante, owner of Vigilante Coffee Company, which has two locations in California and Maryland, said an average pound of coffee has gone up from about $4 to as much as $6. And a 12-ounce bag of beans could increase by 50 cents to $1 for customers, he said.
Vigilante imports much of its coffee from Brazil, and other beans come from countries including Indonesia, Ethiopia and Colombia. Amid federal layoffs and other pressures affecting DC residents, he said Vigilante Coffee Company has considered importing coffee from other countries to “diversify our offerings and keep certain price points for our customer base.”
Despite price increases, Vigilante said he’s optimistic that there are still ways “folks can continue to enjoy great specialty coffee (that) works for their wallet.”
The 50% tariff on top US exporter Brazil, which has seen its coffee bean supply shrink due to a drought, weighs the heaviest on businesses.
Doug Ilg, the owner of Celtic Cup Coffee Roasting in Silver Spring, Maryland, has avoided Brazilian coffee because of the huge tariffs. He doesn’t import coffee himself but buys primarily from third parties and has noticed costs rise in the last eight months.
Trump’s tariffs “definitely changed things,” Ilg said.
For instance, customers now may pay roughly 63 cents more per pound of beans compared to January because of the additional cost of tariffs this year, he said.
The additional costs also put more pressure on small and medium-sized businesses that invest more upfront, said McLaughlin of the Conference Board.
Joel Finkelstein, the owner of Qualia Coffee, which sells at farmers’ markets around DC, said it’s “really hard” to anticipate where his business will be in a year or two because of factors such as uncertainty about pricing.
“Every small business, unless you’re in a very fortunate position, is constantly assessing whether it makes sense to stay open,” Finkelstein said.
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