New data from the Phase 3 BRAVE-AA-PEDS trial highlights baricitinib’s strong performance in adolescents facing severe alopecia areata. Incyte (INCY) and Eli Lilly now plan to pursue global approvals for expanded use based on these results.
See our latest analysis for Incyte.
Incyte’s momentum has really picked up this year thanks to positive trial results and recent pipeline updates, such as its advances in atopic dermatitis and cancer immunotherapies. The stock’s strong 31% share price return since January, along with a 40% total shareholder return over the past year, signals renewed optimism about both its near-term growth and long-term potential.
If Incyte’s clinical breakthroughs have you thinking bigger, this could be a smart time to discover See the full list for free.
With such a run-up in the share price and a fresh wave of optimism, investors have to ask: does Incyte still offer significant upside from here, or has the market already priced in the expected growth?
The most popular narrative among analysts puts Incyte’s fair value at $84.76, which is almost $6.50 below the recent closing price. This signals a view that current market optimism has gone a little too far. Let’s examine one of the biggest factors feeding this analyst consensus.
Recent price target increases highlight optimism about Incyte’s commercial execution, particularly following positive updates on flagship therapies and confidence expressed by new leadership.
Read the complete narrative.
Want the story behind this valuation? Dive in for analysts’ bold projections on future profit margins, share growth, and a crucial earnings target that could make or break the investment case. The real surprise: see how a future multiple drives everything.
Result: Fair Value of $84.76 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, overreliance on Jakafi and regulatory or competitive pressures could still cast doubt on Incyte’s long-term growth narrative.
Find out about the key risks to this Incyte narrative.
While analyst consensus sees Incyte as expensive at current prices, a fresh look using our SWS DCF model tells a different story. The DCF suggests Incyte could be significantly undervalued, with shares trading at a steep 44% discount to estimated fair value. Are the market and the model seeing something different, or is there an opportunity hiding in plain sight?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
