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American Express (AXP) recently posted impressive third-quarter earnings, which has driven a fresh wave of market optimism. The company has raised its full-year revenue and EPS guidance. This decision signals management’s upbeat outlook on ongoing business momentum.

See our latest analysis for American Express.

American Express shares have rallied this year, recently closing at $357.56 after a series of upbeat announcements, including stronger-than-expected third-quarter results, the launch of a refreshed platinum card, and a successful $2 billion bond offering. With a 19.8% share price return so far in 2025 and an impressive five-year total shareholder return of 316.9%, momentum appears to be building as the company doubles down on premium products and deepens its moat.

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With American Express stock hovering near all-time highs after stellar results, investors may wonder if the recent rally has left little room for upside, or if there is still a compelling opportunity to buy before further growth is fully priced in.

With American Express’s fair value currently pegged below the last close, the most popular narrative points to the shares trading at a premium. The story behind this valuation involves both the company’s track record and its future growth blueprint.

“Sustained momentum in acquiring younger (Millennial and Gen Z) cardholders, with these groups showing strong spend growth and lower delinquency rates compared to industry averages, suggests a successful strategy in capturing the next generation of affluent consumers, which should drive future billed business and support earnings stability.”

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what powers this rich price tag? The narrative revolves around bold, double-digit top-line projections, robust profit margins, and a future earnings multiple that tops industry norms. Find out which financial levers analysts are betting on, and whether they are realistic or too optimistic.

Result: Fair Value of $338.24 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, there are still clear risks, including intensifying competition and shifting consumer payment preferences, which could challenge American Express’s premium growth trajectory.

Find out about the key risks to this American Express narrative.

Looking at American Express through the lens of its price-to-earnings ratio paints a mixed picture. Although it trades at 23.7x earnings, this is lower than similar peers averaging 29.4x. However, it is notably higher than the broader industry average of 10.1x and above the fair ratio of 21.5x analysts believe the market could eventually reflect. This gap suggests investors are paying a premium for quality and track record, but also raises questions about potential downside if growth expectations are not met. Is the premium justified, or is caution warranted?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

If you see things differently or want to dig into the numbers on your own, there’s nothing stopping you from drawing your own conclusions in just a few minutes, and Do it your way

A great starting point for your American Express research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include AXP.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

Kirin Holdings Company (TSE:2503) shares have edged higher over the past month, drawing attention from investors interested in the food and beverage sector. The stock’s upward trend raises questions about what is driving recent sentiment.

See our latest analysis for Kirin Holdings Company.

Kirin’s share price has climbed 11.3% over the past three months, reflecting a wave of renewed optimism about its growth outlook, while the total shareholder return over the past year sits at 1.5%. Investors watching this steady uptrend may be sensing improving fundamentals and a potential rerating on valuation, especially as the sector sees pockets of positive momentum.

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The question now is whether Kirin’s recent rally still offers attractive value for new investors, or if the market has already factored in the company’s potential for future growth. Is there a buying opportunity left?

Kirin Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.4 times, which is notably higher than both its industry average and the fair multiple suggested by valuation models. The current share price of ¥2,221.5 puts this premium in focus.

The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio measures how much investors are willing to pay for each unit of the company’s earnings. For an established food and beverage group like Kirin, this number reflects market expectations for profit stability, future growth, and sector competitiveness. However, such a high P/E raises the question of whether recent optimism is running ahead of underlying performance.

Compared to the Asian Beverage industry average of 19.6x, Kirin’s stock is expensive. It also exceeds the company’s own estimated fair P/E of 30.5x, suggesting the stock could be priced for stronger growth or efficiency gains than currently forecast. If expectations reset, the market could drive the multiple closer to this fair ratio in the future.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for Kirin Holdings Company

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 33.4x (OVERVALUED)

However, slower revenue growth or shifts in market sentiment could quickly cool enthusiasm and put downward pressure on Kirin’s current valuation premium.

Find out about the key risks to this Kirin Holdings Company narrative.

While Kirin looks expensive based on its price-to-earnings ratio, the SWS DCF model offers a very different takeaway. According to this approach, the stock is trading at a steep 60% discount to its estimated fair value of ¥5,552.77. This suggests that, even after its recent run, the market may be overlooking longer-term cash flow potential. Could investors be underestimating Kirin’s future growth, or is there something the DCF is not capturing?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Kirin Holdings Company for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.

If you have a different perspective or want to draw your own conclusions, you can easily explore the details and build your own story in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Kirin Holdings Company research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include 2503.T.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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