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Vietnam’s upgrade to Emerging Market status by FTSE Russell is a green flag for global investors and a step towards greater financial market integration. The 2025-2027 reforms can translate into easier capital access and disclosure transparency for businesses looking at a long-term foothold in Vietnam.

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FTSE Russell announced on October 7, 2025, that Vietnam will be upgraded from Frontier to Secondary Emerging Market (EM) status, from September 21, 2026, after a final review scheduled for March 2026. The decision comes after nearly seven years of gradual reform since Vietnam was first placed on the FTSE watchlist in 2018.

Vietnam’s upgrade to Secondary Emerging Market status places it alongside China, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Qatar. It ranks below Advanced Emerging Markets such as Thailand and Malaysia, and Developed Markets like Singapore.

Understanding the FTSE classification and upgrade process

FTSE Russell’s Equity Country Classification Framework evaluates markets based on a set of quantitative and qualitative indicators that measure openness and regulatory quality.

The Secondary Emerging Market status hinges on countries satisfying these primary criteria:

• Market accessibility for foreign investors;
• Settlement and custody infrastructure;
• Transaction transparency and liquidity; and
• Market size, free float, and institutional participation.

Vietnam successfully met all these conditions and addressed many longstanding barriers that were limiting investor participation. The country addressed two critical technical barriers that previously prevented the upgrade, including:

• Settlement cycle and pre-funding requirements

In November 2024, the Ministry of Finance issued Circular 68/2024/TT-BTC, which introduced the Non-Pre-funding Solution (NPS) model. Before, foreign institutional investors were required to fully pre-fund equity purchases before execution, a rule that discouraged global funds accustomed to T+2 settlement systems. Under the NPS, securities firms now bear the responsibility of assessing and managing payment risk under the contracts.

• Failed trade processing mechanism

Vietnam implemented a mechanism for handling settlement failures to improve transparency in post-trade activities. It ensures the timely resolution of settlement failures and brings Vietnam’s back-office procedures closer to international standards.

Interim review and pending conditions

Although Vietnam has met the requirements for EM classification, the March 2026 interim review will evaluate one remaining area, which is direct access for global brokerage firms.

FTSE Russell noted that this is not a mandatory criterion for maintaining EM status, but it remains crucial for Vietnam’s index and for aiding participation by major global institutional investors.

Projected capital inflows and portfolio effects

The upgrade is expected to catalyze a lot of foreign capital inflows. Analysts have made various investment projections, some of which like:

• FTSE Russell estimates inflows of around US$6 billion from passive index trackers that replicate the FTSE Emerging Market Index;
• The World Bank projects short-term inflows of approximately US$5 billion before and after the upgrade from passive and active investors, and long-term potential inflows could reach $25 billion by 2030; and
• HSBC forecasts range from US$3.4 billion (active funds) to US$10.4 billion (total including passive funds).

Vietnam is expected to account for approximately 0.5 percent of the FTSE Emerging Market Index once the reclassification takes effect.

Active fund participation

According to HSBC, approximately 38 percent of Asia-focused funds and 30 percent of global emerging market funds already hold Vietnamese equities, which suggests that beyond passive index flows, Vietnam could attract new active fund allocations too.

Liquidity, valuation, and trading depth

Vietnam’s stock market has demonstrated strong liquidity in 2025. In July 2025, average daily trading volume reached over 1,422 million shares as average daily turnover reached VND 34,993 billion (US$1.32 billion). The market hit historic liquidity records with total trading value on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE) as it approached VND 78.2 trillion (US$2.9 billion) in early August 2025. As of May 2025, Vietnam Exchange posted nearly US$18 billion in monthly trading value, overtaking Malaysia (US$12.1 billion) and Indonesia (US$15.3 billion)

Anticipation of the FTSE announcement has already influenced domestic equity performance. The VN-Index has risen from 1,100 points in April 2025 to nearly 1,700 points by October 2025, which is a 50 percent jump and a 33 percent year-to-date gain; thus, Vietnam has become the best-performing market in Southeast Asia.

HSBC analysts, however, caution that front-loading, the tendency of investors to buy in anticipation of future reclassification, may limit further short-term upside. Profit-taking could occur after the announcement, as observed in other markets following index upgrades. Nevertheless, most research expects active funds to disburse gradually between March and September 2026.

Domestic reforms enabling the upgrade

Vietnam’s reclassification is a cumulative result of regulatory and structural reforms that have improved its foreign access.

Central counterparty and post-trade reforms

The State Securities Commission (SSC) has given a roadmap to launch a central counterparty (CCP) system for Vietnam’s equity market by Q1 2027. Milestones on the way are:

• Q1-Q2 2026: SSC and the Vietnam Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation (VSDC) will issue a new circular to replace Circular 119/2020/TT-BTC on registration, custody, and settlement;
• Q3 2025-Q1 2026: Establishment of a VSDC subsidiary to handle CCP functions;
• Q3 2025-Q4 2026: Introduction of a revised accounting framework to replace Circular 89/2019/TT-BTC;
• 2026: IT system upgrades, staff training, and simulation testing; and
• Q1 2027: Full-scale operation of the CCP.

CCP will help foreign institutional investors reduce currency risk during the payment cycle and provide safer mechanisms against payment risks.

Technology infrastructure modernization

Vietnam launched the KRX trading platform on May 5, 2025, in partnership with the Korea Exchange (KRX). The platform addresses several bottlenecks and expands derivative products available to investors with these new features:

• Same-day trading (T+0) and short selling;
• Faster settlement processing; and
• Support for options contracts and CCP clearing.

Disclosure and transparency

From January 1, 2025, all VN30 companies (the 30 largest listed firms) have been required to publish disclosures in Vietnamese as well as English. By the end of 2026, all approximately 2,000 listed and registered trading companies must complete the transition to English-language disclosures. Currently, only about 25-30 percent of listed companies provide complete English disclosures.

Other reforms

Other transformative reforms include:

• Removal of pre-funding obligations: As noted above, Circular 68/2024/TT-BTC eliminated the full pre-funding requirement for foreign investors.
• Foreign ownership liberalization: Decree 245/2025/ND-CP, issued on September 11, 2025, removed provisions that allowed listed companies to set foreign ownership limits below the legal maximum. All public companies must now publicly disclose their maximum allowable foreign ownership ratio within 12 months of the decree’s coming into force.
• Simplified trading code issuance: Foreign investors can now receive an electronic securities trading code (ESTC) and commence trading immediately without submitting physical paperwork.
• Accelerated IPO and listing timelines: The period for securities to be traded after listing approval was shortened from 90 days to 30 days, and the overall listing process was reduced by 3-6 months.

Remaining reform gaps

Despite its upgrade, Vietnam continues to face structural challenges that must be addressed to sustain investor confidence.

• Currency convertibility: The Vietnamese Dong is not freely convertible and cannot be remitted overseas. Foreign exchange transactions remain subject to State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) controls.
• Global broker access: The March 2026 interim review will specifically assess progress in this area.
• ESG disclosure: Only 25 percent of listed companies publish environmental, social, and governance (ESG) reports, most without external assurance.

Integration with global finance

The FTSE upgrade is a part of a series of efforts Vietnam is taking for global financial integration and capital market openness. Vietnam’s Finance Minister Nguyen Van Thang stated that “the official recognition and upgrade of Vietnam’s securities market is clear evidence of the country’s sound development path and its growing capacity to integrate deeply into the global financial system”.​

The government has set an ambitious target of 8 percent GDP growth for 2025 and aims to achieve double-digit growth between 2026 and 2030. The present roadmap for Vietnam’s stock market development goes up to 2030. The market can aim for medium-term targets for MSCI Emerging Market upgrade between 2026 and 2027 and can have long-term goals for FTSE Advanced Emerging Market status by 2029 and 2030.

Monetary and currency management

Vietnam’s GDP growth recorded an 8.23 percent year-on-year rise in Q3 2025, the fastest since 2022. The Purchasing Manager’s Index was 50.4 in September 2025, and total trade volume reached US$680 billion, with exports up 14.8 percent to US$262.44 billion.

The SBV maintains an inflation target of 4.5 percent for 2025. As of mid-year, consumer prices rose 3.27 percent, and core inflation stood at 3.16 percent. Refinancing rates remain at 4.5 percent (at an accommodative policy stance).

The Federal Reserve’s rate cuts in 2025 have provided room for Vietnam to maintain low domestic interest rates without pressuring the dong. As we noted, the Vietnamese Dong is not freely convertible as foreign exchange transactions still are subject to SBV controls.

Vietnam’s sovereign credit ratings remain below investment grade but stable:

• Standard & Poor‘s BB+ with stable outlook (affirmed August 2025);
• Fitch’s BB+ with stable outlook (affirmed June 2025); and
• Moody’s: Ba2 with stable outlook (unchanged since 2022).

The EM reclassification could fuel investor appetite for Vietnamese sovereign bonds, which could potentially lower long-term borrowing costs. Vietnam now stands at the threshold of deeper global integration. Despite global headwinds, Vietnam’s domestic reforms and foreign investors’ belief in its robustness can provide a much-needed boost for double-digit growth.

Read more: Vietnam’s Rising Purchasing Power: 2024 Household Living Standards Survey

(US$1 = VND 26,349.5)

 

It’s known to be China’s biggest online shopping event – taking place on 11 November each year.

But this year, Single’s Day sales have already begun in mid-October, as part of efforts by Chinese retailers to boost spending in a sluggish market.

China has been plagued with issues like growing youth unemployment , a prolonged property crisis, steep government debt and an ongoing trade war with the US – all of which is making the country’s consumers cut back on spending.

The Chinese government has been spending billions – through family subsidies, more wages and discounts for consumer goods in a bid to counter this, but retail sales growth is still failing to meet expectations.

Originally created by Alibaba as a Chinese shopping festival, Singles’ Day is akin to Amazon’s Prime Day or Black Friday promotions elsewhere in the world.

A major revenue driver in the final quarter of the year, the event is marked with deep discounts online and in stores, with most retailers in the country competing for sales.

Over the years, the sales window has evolved from a single day to one of the year’s biggest shopping events, often ushered in with extravagant opening events featuring popstars like Jessie J.

But this year, retailers launched their sales campaigns in October, coinciding with the end of China’s Golden Week holiday.

Platforms like Taobao, JD.com and Douyin are actively promoting “11.11” sales, with banners on their apps showing discounts and vouchers.

Alibaba, which runs e-commerce platforms Taobao, Tmall and AliExpress, said in its newshub that it is kicking off this years “11.11 Global Shopping Festival” on 15 October.

The firm is also tapping artificial intelligence in its search and recommendation tools to make it easier for shoppers to navigate its sprawling sites and suggest relevant products.

Chinese consumers have adopted more cautious spending habits since the Covid-19 pandemic – a trend that has continued as the country continues to battle deflation.

The spending crunch has hit high-end retailers especially hard. Fashion brands like Louis Vuitton and Burberry reported a drop in sales in recent months in China, which accounts for around a third of global luxury sales.

However, investors seem optimistic about a rebound in China’s market, as shares of luxury brands like LVMH and Moncler rose this week, lifted by signs of improved demand in the region.

This article was first published in The Business Times on October 9, 2025. It was co-authored with Julia Bingler, Fellow at the Council on Economic Policies.

Authorities must revise capital frameworks and integrate resilience into monetary operations to tackle challenges

In just the last few months, novel risks have crystallized across ASEAN+3.

Grab merchants in Singapore began accepting stablecoin payments; Typhoon Bualoi flooded Philippine and Vietnamese ports and factories, paralyzing entire provinces; and US tariff increases are forcing regional economies to recalibrate supply chains.

These disruptions share a common thread: traditional economic frameworks cannot keep pace. Digital assets are reshaping monetary systems, social tensions are threatening political and economic stability, climate extremes are disrupting supply chains, and geopolitical shifts are upending trade patterns.

Policymakers must now simultaneously respond swiftly to immediate crises, such as rising living costs, geopolitical pressures and extreme weather events, while steering deeper structural changes involving demographic shifts, digital currencies, artificial intelligence (AI) and the transition to sustainable economies.

The prosperity of ASEAN+3 economies–the 10 Southeast Asian nations plus China (including Hong Kong), Japan and South Korea–hinges on whether policymakers, central banks and financial supervisors can navigate an increasingly complex landscape of novel risks that cut across food security, labor markets and infrastructure resilience, potentially undermining economic welfare and financial stability.

The rising likelihood of compound shocks adds complexity. But if tackled strategically, such policies can become catalysts for sustainable prosperity.

New risks require new approaches

Novel risks are not simply variations of known shocks. Most are cross-border, systemic and fraught with deep uncertainties, with a high likelihood of materializing concurrently.

Because they challenge conventional governance and risk management approaches, these risks require more adaptive and targeted instruments to safeguard financial stability, as well as to ensure price stability and sustainable long-term prosperity.

Conventional financial risk assessment models based on historical data and unrealistic assumptions cannot capture novel risks appropriately. Backward-looking stress testing is increasingly unviable. By their nature, these are risks that economies have not faced before, making forward-looking risk management and analysis essential.

Global systemic challenges at this level cannot be hedged or diversified away. When they crystallize, there will be wide cross-border implications.

Novel risks also put monetary policy under pressure. Stablecoins and climate change weaken monetary transmission channels and exacerbate existing vulnerabilities.

While fully pegged stablecoins promote financial inclusion for the under-banked and bridge traditional finance with the digital economy, they also amplify currency devaluation and weaken central banks’ ability to set monetary policy in line with domestic economic conditions. They could trigger capital flow volatility, liquidity shortfalls, and sudden devaluations that wipe out savings.

Climate change, meanwhile, will damage productive capacity, alter investment patterns and create inflationary pressures through supply shocks.

Financial authorities must step up

Finance ministers, central bankers and financial supervisors need new approaches to address these challenges.

Price and financial stability must now take into account forces that threaten stability beyond traditional business cycles. Without such adaptation, economic and financial governance frameworks risk losing their effectiveness.

Novel risks demand strategically recalibrated monetary policy, resilience-focused financial regulation and forward-looking supervision. Policymakers, central banks and financial regulators already possess powerful tools that – if deployed early and strategically – can help financial markets navigate these risks more effectively.

Several ASEAN+3 central banks are already leading the way with initiatives to manage the digitalization of financial services, strengthen regional payment systems, develop human capital, promote financial inclusion and support the transition to climate-resilient economies.

The Bank of Korea has created a virtual asset committee to monitor crypto developments and support legislation; the Bank of Thailand has completed consultation on its AI risk management policy; and the Monetary Authority of Singapore is developing a generative AI risk framework through Project MindForge. Japan has amended the Payment Services Act to introduce stablecoin licensing requirements, and Bank Negara Malaysia has launched a Climate Finance Innovation Lab while integrating climate risks into supervision.

However, these initiatives remain fragmented and often modest in scale relative to the magnitude of the risks ahead. The time has come to scale up, systematize the implementation of these measures and regionalize them.

Supervisors and regulators need to revise capital adequacy frameworks to reflect novel risks, and issue explicit guidance on how institutions must incorporate them into strategies.

Disclosures must deliver decision-useful, forward-looking information. Systemic capital buffers need calibration to reflect the likelihood of risks materializing simultaneously. Regional collaboration will be critical to avoid regulatory arbitrage and fragmentation.

For monetary policy, central banks need to integrate resilience directly into refinancing operations and asset purchase programs. They must reflect novel risks in collateral frameworks and balance sheet management, including foreign reserve holdings.

Regional cooperation essential

ASEAN+3, as a region of diverse economies bound by deep interdependence, faces unique challenges.

Risk spillovers are inevitable, and no single nation’s measures will suffice. A prolonged heatwave in one country disrupts food supply chains in another. Capital mispriced in one jurisdiction creates vulnerabilities across the regional financial system. A rapid shift to US dollar stablecoins could weaken monetary policy effectiveness and create sudden liquidity shortfalls.

To deal with these risks, both individually and simultaneously, the region must monitor developments, meet regularly to coordinate policy actions, and develop internal capacity to understand and manage them.

By pooling expertise as well as developing common standards and interoperable regulatory frameworks, ASEAN+3 policymakers can transform a patchwork of responses into a regional architecture of resilience.

Finance ministries and central banks have long been the guardians of economic and financial stability. In this new age, they must also become architects of resilience and enablers of economic transitions.

Aligning financial supervision and monetary policy with novel risks is not a technocratic exercise. It is a strategic choice that will define whether regional economies can achieve sustained growth, mitigate emerging risks, enhance social welfare, and benefit from climate-resilient prosperity in the decades ahead.

ASEAN+3 can provide an example of global best practice, leading in setting the framework and institutional arrangements necessary to monitor and manage novel risks.