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Fed Meeting in Focus: Cut Likely, Guidance Will Drive Dollar Response

Traders are now squarely focused on Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision and accompanying statement. While a quarter-point cut to a 3.75%–4.00% target range is fully priced in, market reaction will hinge on forward guidance and Chair Powell’s tone in the post-meeting press conference.

With job growth slowing and inflation moderating, the Fed is under pressure to support labor conditions without reigniting price risks. The central bank’s challenge is compounded by limited data visibility, as the shutdown has delayed key labor and spending reports.

If the Fed signals additional cuts are likely, that would increase downside pressure on the dollar. Conversely, any effort to downplay further easing could offer near-term support to the index.

Treasury Yields Reflect Cautious Policy Outlook

Bond markets echoed this sentiment shift. The benchmark 10-year yield retreated below 4% to close near 3.966%, while shorter maturities showed similar declines.

With the Fed now weighing labor market deterioration more heavily than inflation risks, fixed income traders are positioning for a slower policy path through year-end. This cautious tone limited dollar upside, even as international rate expectations trended lower.

Technical Picture: Tight Weekly Range Signals Impending Break

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) shares have seen some volatility recently, catching the attention of investors watching the electric vehicle sector. The company has delivered mixed short-term returns; however, its longer-term performance tells a different story.

See our latest analysis for Rivian Automotive.

After a choppy stretch this year, Rivian’s share price has recently lost momentum, sliding 16.7% over the past month. However, when you take a step back, the one-year total shareholder return is an impressive 24.2%, even after accounting for big swings since last year’s lows.

If you’re curious what else is out there in electric vehicles and autos, now’s the perfect time to check out See the full list for free.

But with Rivian’s shares now trading below analyst targets after a period of turbulence, the key question remains: is this a genuine buying opportunity, or has the market already factored in all the future growth?

Rivian’s most widely followed narrative currently places its fair value at $14.48, which is about 10% above the last close of $12.98. This disconnect between the share price and narrative fair value sharpens focus on key drivers supporting this bullish view.

Vertical integration in technology, especially in autonomy, battery, and software, combined with growing software and services revenue (including licensing via partnerships like with Volkswagen) is expected to open new high-margin revenue streams and diversify earnings. This could potentially strengthen EBITDA and net margins over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know why high-tech partnerships and vertical integration are central to Rivian’s future? There’s a set of bold assumptions powering this target valuation, including game-changing revenue projections and margin shifts few expect. Curious about what the consensus is betting on beneath the surface? Unpack the narrative to see what’s driving the models and which financial levers matter most.

Result: Fair Value of $14.48 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, persistent cash burn and policy changes, such as tariff shifts or tax credit reductions, could quickly undermine these optimistic forecasts for Rivian’s future.

Find out about the key risks to this Rivian Automotive narrative.

Looking at Rivian through the lens of price-to-sales, things appear less optimistic. The company’s ratio stands at 3.1x, which is quite a bit higher than both the US Auto industry average of 1.3x and the peer average of 1.5x. Even our fair ratio estimate is just 1.4x, suggesting the market is paying a premium. Does this premium signal belief in future breakthroughs or simply extra valuation risk?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

If you see things differently or believe a deeper dive could reveal more, you can quickly assemble your own narrative and test your insights in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Rivian Automotive research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include RIVN.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

Story Continues

Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) start-up Stellerus Technology aims to be the world’s first provider of satellite-enabled three-dimensional wind data to help wind power, transport and insurance firms boost revenues, cut costs and manage risks, according to its founders.

Stellerus, founded in 2023 by the university’s academics, would leverage China’s cost competitiveness in satellite manufacturing to make global 3D wind data collection economically viable, said Su Hui, the chairwoman and co-founder.

3D wind data – wind direction and speed and their changes with altitude – is crucial for improving weather forecasting, especially severe climate events.

“After I came to Hong Kong, I realised the technology for implementing such a project in mainland China was quite developed and the cost would be much lower than overseas,” Su said. “In the US, such a satellite could cost US$100 million to build, compared with 20 million yuan [US$2.8 million] in China.”

Su, a hydraulic expert, joined the HKUST’s department of civil and environmental engineering in 2022 as chair professor. She was formerly a principal scientist and weather programme manager at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory at Nasa.