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By Bill Peters

Goldman analysts upgrade Estee Lauder’s stock, saying a sales rebound could happen sooner than investors think

Goldman Sachs analysts see “an upcoming fundamental inflection” for Estee Lauder as the cosmetics maker tries to turn its fortunes around.

Cosmetics giant Estee Lauder Cos.’s rebound could take hold sooner than expected, Goldman Sachs analysts said on Monday, as trends firm up in the U.S. and China and the company puts more focus on newer and higher-end products and sales through TikTok and Amazon.

The Goldman analysts upgraded shares of Estee Lauder (EL) to a buy rating. That upgrade helped send the stock 5.8% higher on Monday.

The analysts, in a research note, said they saw “an upcoming fundamental inflection” for Estee Lauder, which is known for brands like Clinique and Aveda, along with its namesake products. They added that the company could return to sales growth as soon as its fiscal first quarter, which ran through last month.

“Ultimately, we believe investors need evidence of sustainable toplinegrowth and share gains, and we believe this could happen earlierthan expected (possibly FQ1), and with continued progress on improved profitability, this should drive a re-rating in the stock,” the analysts said.

Higher costs of living, competition, tariffs and an online ecosystem that has sped up trend cycles have weighed on beauty-industry heavyweights. Estee Lauder this year has slashed thousands of jobs and announced plans to accelerate new-product development and take steps to be a bigger player in more upscale beauty products.

In February, Chief Executive Stéphane de La Faverie said that Estee Lauder had been “too slow to seize new opportunities” and that the company planned to deliver nearly a third of its product launches in under 12 months. In August, he called the moves “the biggest organizational transformation that we have done in our history.”

However, management in August said it expected better sales trends for mainland China – a key market that the Goldman analysts said makes up around a quarter of Estee Lauder’s sales – and at places like airport duty-free shops and cruise-ship terminals. Those trends were reasons to be optimistic, the analysts said.

“While there has been some debate around the elevated competition from local brands,” the analysts said of the backdrop in China, “we believe rising urban consumption should support [Estee Lauder’s] growth and the steps it is taking as part of its strategic vision should support further market share gains ahead.”

The analysts also said that while Estee Lauder’s business in North America lost a lot of ground over recent years, it is more diversified today. They said the company has less than one-third of its overall exposure to department stores. The rest, they said, was spread out across Amazon, Estee Lauder’s direct-to-consumer business, and other stores.

That current composition of its business, the analysts said, “should allow the company to reach its consumers in a more effective manner.”

The analysts noted that Estee Lauder first launched Clinique on Amazon in the U.S. last year, which has helped that brand pick up a bigger slice of the market. They said Estee Lauder currently has 11 brands on Amazon in the U.S. The company also recently launched two brands on TikTok Shop.

“Notably, [management] views these platforms as an important part of its new media model wherein these platforms serve the purpose of amplifying demand for its brands as consumers predominantly search for beauty products across these platforms,” the analysts said.

“While department stores will likely get even smaller over time as other growth channels pick-up in the mix,” they added, “we believe department stores remain an important channel to drive trial and certain categories will likely thrive in brick-and-mortar, such as fragrances and luxury skincare.”

-Bill Peters

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  10-13-25 2011ET
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