Hochschild Mining’s stock narrative has shifted, as the Fair Value Estimate has been raised from £3.63 to £4.21 per share. This significant upward revision is driven by recent analyst activity. The change comes amid a modest drop in the Discount Rate and an improved outlook for revenue growth. Stay tuned to discover how investors can keep abreast of these evolving forecasts and what it means for the future of Hochschild Mining.
Analyst sentiment on Hochschild Mining has been notably active, with significant price target revisions in recent months. Commentary from leading firms has highlighted both optimism and caution around the company’s valuation and outlook.
🐂 Bullish Takeaways
Berenberg recently raised its price target on Hochschild Mining to 380 GBp from 280 GBp. This reflects renewed confidence in the company’s upside potential.
Canaccord continues to maintain a Buy rating on the shares with a new price target of 350 GBp, signaling belief in Hochschild’s underlying growth drivers and execution quality.
The upward adjustment in price targets underscores analysts’ recognition of revenue growth momentum and a positive shift in fundamentals.
Key drivers identified by analysts include improving cost control and stronger operational transparency.
Despite the bullish outlook, some reservations remain regarding valuation levels and the extent to which near-term upside is already priced into the stock.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
JPMorgan, represented by analyst Patrick Jones, lowered its price target to 370 GBp from 390 GBp. This reflects a more cautious stance even while maintaining an Overweight rating.
Berenberg has also demonstrated caution by previously lowering its price target from 300 GBp to 280 GBp, highlighting persistent concerns.
Bearish commentary centers on elevated valuation and the risks associated with near-term headwinds.
Some analysts caution that while operational improvements are evident, much of the positive outlook may now be reflected in the share price, limiting further short-term upside.
Overall, while analysts acknowledge progress in Hochschild Mining’s growth and execution, opinions remain split. Ongoing valuation risks and priced-in optimism temper some of the renewed enthusiasm even as select firms raise their targets.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!
LSE:HOC Community Fair Values as at Oct 2025
Hochschild Mining reported unaudited operating results for the first half of 2025, revealing a decline in silver production to 4,624 thousand ounces from 5,016 thousand ounces in the previous year. Gold production increased to 131.74 thousand ounces compared with 120.16 thousand ounces year-over-year.
The company’s total silver equivalent production rose to 15,559 thousand ounces, up from 14,989 thousand ounces in the same period last year. Total gold equivalent production also climbed to 187.45 thousand ounces from last year’s 180.59 thousand ounces.
Hochschild revised its 2025 Mara Rosa production target downward and now expects 35,000 to 45,000 ounces compared to the previous forecast of 94,000 to 104,000 ounces.
The company lowered its 2025 operations attributable production guidance, now projecting 291,000 to 319,000 gold equivalent ounces. This is a reduction from the earlier guidance of 350,000 to 378,000 ounces.
The Fair Value Estimate has increased from £3.63 to £4.21 per share, reflecting a notable upward revision.
The Discount Rate has fallen slightly, moving from 7.87% to 7.86%.
The Revenue Growth Forecast has risen from 6.86% to 7.41%.
The Net Profit Margin is now projected at 16.27%, up from the previous 15.70% estimate.
The Future Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio has climbed from 15.3x to 16.8x.
Narratives are a powerful way to invest smarter. They combine the story and outlook for a company with real financial forecasts and fair value estimates, all in one place. On Simply Wall St’s Community, millions of investors use Narratives to see how new information, from news to earnings, changes the outlook for a business. By comparing updated Fair Value to the current share price, you get a clear view on when to buy or sell, with everything dynamically refreshed as new events unfold.
Read the original Hochschild Mining Narrative to keep ahead of key company moves, including:
Operational improvements and new project launches are expected to boost output, extend mine life, and reduce risk.
Learn how strong demand for gold and silver, along with upgraded ESG credentials, is contributing to greater value and increased investor appeal.
Understand the risks and critical milestones that could shape Hochschild’s growth story in the years ahead.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include HOC.L.
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Geopolitical rivalries have reshaped the global economy and have led to a resurgence of trade sanctions worldwide (Mohr and Trebesch 2025, Clayton et al. 2023, 2024). One common form of sanction is the export control, which restricts sales of certain items to specific destinations, usually geopolitical rivals. The stated purpose of export controls is to constrain the technological progress and military capacity of rivals. However, a key question surrounds such policies: do they inadvertently spur domestic innovation in rivals? In this column and a recent working paper, we bring granular firm-level evidence from China to this debate (Liu et al. 2025).
We study the ‘China Military Catch-All Rule’, implemented in 2007 by the US Bureau of Industry and Security, which tightened export rules for certain dual-use items to China. When first proposed, the policy covered 77 HS six-digit categories; after an inter-agency review, 18 were removed. We exploit this change to estimate the policy’s causal effects on imports and innovation. Our baseline difference-in-differences strategy compares firms that imported controlled items before 2007 with firms that imported only the excluded items, which serve as our control group. We corroborate our results with propensity-score matching and synthetic difference-in-differences. To trace both trade and innovation responses, we link transaction-level Chinese customs data, firm surveys, value-added tax (VAT) invoice data on interfirm linkages within China, and the universe of Chinese patent applications.
Large and persistent declines in controlled imports
We find that the policy generated an immediate contraction in targeted trade (see Figure 1). Relative to control firms, pre-period importers of controlled goods were 18 percentage points less likely to import those goods from the US after 2007. The value of such imports fell by roughly 89% from the pre-period mean. Substitution from the rest of the world only partly offset the loss: the probability of importing controlled goods from any foreign source fell by about ten percentage points, and import value dropped by roughly 55%. Event-study estimates show a sharp break in 2007 that persists thereafter.
Figure 1 Response of Chinese firm imports to export controls
Notes: The specification includes firm fixed effects, county-by-year fixed effects, and interactions of pre-period firm characteristics with year fixed effects. The pre-period characteristics include average pre-2007 firm sales growth, R&D spending, patent counts, and inventor counts. Standard errors are clustered at the firm level. The bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Source: Liu et al. (2025), Figure 2.
Exposed firms responded with a broad surge in innovation
Firms exposed to the export controls substantially increased innovation activity (see Figure 2). Compared to firms in the control group, they were 3.6 percentage points more likely to report any R&D spending, and their R&D outlays rose by about 49%. They were also 2.8 percentage points more likely to file any patent, with total applications up by about 41%. The innovation response was broad: patents related to controlled technologies rose by about 65%, while patents on other topics rose by about 42%. The number of active inventors at a firm increased by about 30%. These effects emerged quickly after 2007 and grew over time, indicating a persistent shift. The aggregate response is driven by non-state-owned firms.
Figure 2 Response of Chinese firm innovation to export controls
Notes: The specification includes firm fixed effects, county-by-year fixed effects, and interactions of pre-period firm characteristics with year fixed effects. The pre-period characteristics include average pre-2007 firm sales growth, R&D spending, patent counts, and inventor counts. Standard errors are clustered at the firm level. The bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Source: Liu et al. (2025), Figure 3 (a) and (b).
Exposed upstream suppliers increased innovation in sanctioned domains
We also examine upstream domestic suppliers, defined as firms that sold controlled products to treated firms before 2007. We identify suppliers of treated and control firms by leveraging firm-to-firm relationships from China’s VAT invoice database. Treated suppliers were 4.4 percentage points more likely to file any patent in controlled domains, and their related patent counts rose by roughly 360% relative to baseline. Patenting in other topics did not increase significantly. Thus, while directly exposed firms innovated broadly, upstream suppliers concentrated innovation specifically in the sanctioned technologies. These results highlight the importance of production-chain spillovers in the innovation response to export controls.
Conclusion
A growing literature studies how export controls matter for issuing countries. For example, Crosignani et al. (2024) show that US export controls hastened financial and real decoupling from Chinese firms: US suppliers saw lower stock returns, reduced bank lending, weaker profitability, and job losses. Other work shows how sanctions affect third countries. For example, US export controls on China prompted Japanese multinationals to exit the Chinese market; US Entity List sanctions on Huawei led Japanese suppliers to export less to China.
By contrast, much less is known about how export controls affect the targeted economies. Recent work by Alfaro et al. (2025) finds that China’s 2010 rare-earth export quotas induced alternative supply and downstream innovation worldwide, while Egorov et al. (2025) document how post-2022 export sanctions disrupted production and supply chains in Russia, especially in strategic sectors. Our study complements this emerging literature by providing evidence on how a destination-specific export control can stimulate innovation within the targeted country itself.
Overall, our results provide new empirical evidence on a key trade-off inherent to export controls as a geopolitical instrument. In the short run, they reduce the target’s access to critical inputs. Yet controls can also spur domestic innovation, and our results show that this response is economically meaningful in magnitude and persistence. As policymakers deploy export controls, they will need to weigh the short-run benefits against the long-run costs to ensure that the policies do not create the very problem they were intended to prevent.
References
Alfaro, L, H Fadinger, J Schymik and G Virananda (2025), “Trade and Industrial Policy in Supply Chains: Directed Technological Change in Rare Earths”, NBER Working Paper 33877.
Clayton, C, M Maggiori and J Schreger (2023), “A Framework for Geoeconomics”, Working Paper.
Clayton, C, M Maggiori and J Schreger (2024), “A Theory of Economic Coercion and Fragmentation”, Working Paper.
Crosignani, M, L Han, M Macchiavelli and A F Silva (2024), “Geopolitical Risk and Decoupling: Evidence from US Export Controls”, Working Paper.
Egorov, K, V Korovkin, A Makarin and D Nigmatulina (2025), “Trade Sanctions”, Available at SSRN 5404040.
Fukao, K and I Deseatnicov (2025), “US export controls and the restructuring of global value chains: An analysis of Japanese multinationals’ exits from China”, VoxEU.org, 14 February.
Hayakawa, K and K Ito (2025), “The ripple beyond borders: Indirect effects of US export controls on Japanese firms”, VoxEU.org, 1 August.
Liu, X, Y Liu, A Makarin and J Wen (2025), “Export Controls and Innovation in Sanctioned Countries”, CEPR Discussion Paper 20690. https://cepr.org/publications/dp20690
Mohr, C and C Trebesch (2025), “Geoeconomics”, Annual Review of Economics.
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Plumbers, electricians and welders will be in huge demand as part of a national plan to train people for an extra 400,000 green jobs in the next five years, Ed Miliband has said.
The energy secretary revealed a new scheme to double those working in green industries by 2030, with a particular focus on training those coming from fossil fuel jobs, school leavers, the unemployed, veterans and ex-offenders.
He said the plan would involve measures to ensure companies receiving public grants and contracts need to create good jobs across the clean energy sector. It will also promote greater trade union recognition and collective bargaining in the clean energy sector, including when jobs are offshore.
Miliband’s announcement was welcomed by unions from Unite to the GMB, which have long been pushing for a more detailed plan for how people will switch from old fossil fuel industries to those in clean energy in the future.
As part of the plan, 31 professions will be designated as priorities for recruitment and training, with plumbers, heating and ventilating installers at the top of the list with an additional 8,000 to 10,000 needed by 2030. Carpenters, electricians and welders are the next highest in demand on the list, with 4,000 to 8,500 extra of each required.
Miliband said the national plan “answers a key question about where the good jobs of the future will come from”.
Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, says the national plan makes clear what jobs are needed for the green energy transition. Photograph: James Glossop/Reuters
As well as flagging to jobseekers what kind of green jobs are needed, the energy secretary said it would “send a signal to the mayors, regional mayors, who have lots of responsibilities in this area about where they need to be directing their further education colleges and others where the big opportunities are.
“It sends a signal to industry, who have been saying … set out what are the needs going be and how are we going to fill them.”
Miliband said the promise of hundreds of thousands of new roles in the renewables and clean energy sector would show that Reform UK is “waging war on jobs” by challenging the switch to net zero.
“Obviously, this is a massive fight with Reform,” he said. “Reformers said they’ll wage war on clean energy. Well, that’s waging war on these jobs … It’s all part of their attempt at a culture war, but I actually think they’re out of tune with the British people because I think people recognise that we need, that we want the jobs from clean energy.
“We want the lower bills that it can bring. So let’s have the argument as a country about what we’re going to do. I’m really confident we can win this argument.”
He said estimates show jobs in wind, nuclear, and electricity networks all advertise average salaries of more than £50,000, compared with the UK average of £37,000, and are spread across coastal and post-industrial communities.
Other announcements in the plan include five new technical excellence colleges that will help train young people into essential roles, with skills pilots in Cheshire, Lincolnshire and Pembrokeshire to be backed by £2.5m towards new training centres, courses or career advisers.
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There will also be a new programme to match veterans up with careers in solar panel installation, wind turbine factories and nuclear power stations, with other tailored schemes for ex-offenders, school leavers and the unemployed.
Government research suggests that 13,700 people who were out of work possessed many of the skills required for key roles in the clean energy sector, such as engineering and skilled trades.
There will also be a focus on upskilling existing oil and gas workers, who will benefit from up to £20m in total from the UK and Scottish governments to provide bespoke careers training for thousands of new roles in clean energy.
Sharon Graham, Unite’s general secretary, said: “Well paid, secure work must be at the heart of any green transition. Unite members will welcome the commitment to 400,000 green jobs with strong collective bargaining rights. The actions set out in this plan are initial steps in what must be an ambitious strategy for tangible jobs, backed by an equally ambitious programme of public investment.”
Charlotte Brumpton-Childs, a national officer at the GMB, said: “GMB has long campaigned for a jobs-first transition. The government is listening and having a jobs plan to underpin the industrial strategy is exactly what this country needs.”
Drug resistance remains one of the greatest challenges in the treatment of advanced lung cancer, particularly in patients with tumors harboring monogenic alterations. Despite significant progress in targeted therapies, resistance ultimately limits the effectiveness of treatment, underscoring the need for new strategies to overcome both intrinsic and acquired resistance mechanisms.
At the European Society for Medical Oncology 2025 Congress in Berlin, Germany, Pasi A. Jänne, MD, senior vice president for Translational Medicine and David M. Livingston, MD chair at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, a professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School, discussed the underlying mechanisms of resistance, how to prevent resistance, and the role of antibody drug conjugates (ADCs) in overcoming barriers to optimal treatment response.
Understanding the Origins of Resistance
Resistance in lung cancer arises primarily through 2 mechanisms: pre-existing resistant clones and drug tolerance states. Pre-existing clones are subpopulations of tumor cells that harbor inherent resistance mechanisms before therapy begins. In contrast, the drug tolerance state emerges when tumor cells survive initial targeted therapy, entering a reversible, persistent state. These cells maintain some sensitivity to therapy but can eventually acquire multiple resistance mechanisms over time.
Targeted therapy resistance is highly heterogeneous. In individual patients, multiple resistance pathways may develop simultaneously, including secondary mutations, bypass signaling pathways, and histologic transformation. For example, EGFR-mutant lung cancers can develop compound mutations, downstream pathway activation, or transform into small cell or squamous histology, each representing a distinct resistance mechanism. This complexity makes designing effective treatment strategies particularly challenging.
“”Cancer is heterogeneous, and multiple resistance mechanisms can develop simultaneously,” explained Jänne, “which makes it challenging to determine the best therapeutic strategy.”
Preventing Resistance Through Combination Therapies and Advanced Inhibitors
One approach to managing resistance is the development of more potent inhibitors capable of overcoming resistance to earlier-generation drugs. For instance, osimertinib (Tagrisso; AstraZeneca) was designed to inhibit EGFR T790M mutations, while lorlatinib (Lorbrena; Pfizer Inc) targets resistance mutations arising after prior-generation ALK inhibitors.
Combination therapy also plays a critical role. Clinical studies have shown that pairing targeted inhibitors with additional agents can improve response rates and delay the emergence of resistance. In EGFR-mutant lung cancer, trials combining osimertinib with MET inhibitors—such as capmatinib (Tabrecta; Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation) or savolitinib (Orpathys; HUTCHMED; AstraZeneca)—demonstrated higher response rates in patients with MET amplification or high MET expression. These biomarker-driven approaches illustrate the potential of combination strategies to preemptively circumvent specific resistance pathways.
Targeting Drug-Tolerant, Persistent Cancer
A challenging subset of lung cancer involves drug-tolerant, persistent tumor cells. These cells survive initial targeted therapy, often displaying stem cell-like properties, slow cycling, epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) characteristics, and epigenetic modulation. Local therapies, such as consolidated radiation to residual lesions, have shown potential controlling these populations. Small studies demonstrate improved progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) when radiation is combined with ongoing targeted therapy.
“This drug-tolerant persistent state represents a therapeutic opportunity,” said Jänne. “If we can eliminate this intermediate population [cells that survive therapy but aren’t fully resistant], we may extend the benefit of first-line targeted therapy and delay resistance.”
Preclinical models have further illustrated the potential of targeting this drug-tolerant state. In a mouse model of EGFR-mutant lung cancer, chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy cured 4 out of 10 mice with durable responses, whereas treatment with osimertinib alone or with ADCs failed to produce long-term cures. These findings suggest that novel systemic therapies, including cellular therapies, may effectively eliminate residual resistant populations and extend the duration of benefit from first-line targeted therapy.
Addressing Acquired Resistance
Acquired resistance occurs when tumors initially respond to therapy but later progress. The pattern of progression—whether systemic or focal—guides subsequent treatment decisions. For localized progression, clinicians may employ targeted local therapies such as radiation, while continuing systemic targeted therapy. For systemic progression, tissue biopsies, often combined with liquid biopsies, provide critical insights into the mechanisms of resistance, which can then inform tailored treatment approaches.
For example, EGFR-mutant tumors that acquire MET amplification can respond to combination therapy with osimertinib and MET inhibitors, showing response rates up to 58% compared with 34% for chemotherapy. Similarly, resistance mechanisms involving RET or ALK rearrangements can be addressed with combination strategies targeting the specific alterations. However, the heterogeneity of resistance mechanisms in individual tumors means that a single approach rarely addresses all pathways simultaneously.
Small Cell Transformation and Novel Therapeutics
Another mechanism of resistance in EGFR-mutant NSCLC is transformation into small cell lung cancer (SCLC). These transformed tumors are treated according to standard SCLC protocols, typically platinum-etoposide chemotherapy. Novel approaches, including tarlatamab (Imdelltra; Amgen) and ADCs, are being evaluated for efficacy in transformed SCLC. Early evidence suggests that combining targeted therapy with chemotherapy may enhance responses in this context, and ongoing trials will clarify the role of immune checkpoint inhibitors and ADCs in these transformed tumors.
The Role of ADCs and Broader Therapeutic Approaches
ADCs are emerging as a promising therapeutic option in resistant lung cancers, including those with EGFR mutations. ADCs can target a broad range of resistance mechanisms independent of the specific mutation, providing a more universal approach for patients lacking identifiable targetable alterations. For example, data from trials of troponin-2 ADCs and datopotamab deruxtecan-dlnk (Datroway;_Daiichi Sankyo, Inc) show response rates of approximately 40% in EGFR-mutant lung cancer, with some durable responses. These agents offer hope for patients whose tumors exhibit complex or polyclonal resistance mechanisms.
The Need for Biomarkers
Despite these advances, a major limitation in treating resistant lung cancers is the lack of predictive biomarkers. Biomarkers are essential for identifying which patients are most likely to benefit from combination therapy, local interventions, ADCs, or novel cellular approaches. Ongoing research aims to discover robust markers to guide treatment decisions and maximize therapeutic benefit while minimizing unnecessary toxicity.
“Careful biomarker-driven strategies will be key to tailoring treatments and improving patient outcomes in resistant lung cancers,” Jänne said.
Conclusion
Drug resistance remains a formidable challenge in advanced lung cancer, but evolving strategies offer new hope. By understanding the origins of resistance—from pre-existing clones to drug-tolerant persistent states—clinicians can better tailor therapy to individual patients. Combination therapies, local interventions, ADCs, and CAR T cells all provide promising avenues to overcome resistance, while ongoing research into biomarkers will be crucial for guiding these approaches.
REFERENCES
Wolf J, Jänne P, Leighl N. Targeting oncogenes in NSCLC. Presented at: European Society for Medical Oncology 2025 Congress. October 17, 2025, to October 21, 2025. Berlin, Germany.
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