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• Gold prices recently surged past US$4,000 per ounce, reaching record highs and fueling significant earnings growth for Wheaton Precious Metals due to its unique streaming model.

• Wheaton Precious Metals’ ability to secure long-term streaming agreements at discounted prices has positioned it to benefit more than traditional miners when gold and silver prices spike.

• We’ll examine how Wheaton Precious Metals’ earnings momentum and streaming model bolster its investment narrative amid record gold prices.

We’ve found 20 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

To be a shareholder in Wheaton Precious Metals, you need to believe that gold and silver prices will remain elevated and that the company’s long-term streaming agreements will continue to deliver outsized returns relative to traditional mining peers. The recent record run in gold prices is a powerful short-term catalyst, driving strong earnings momentum, but the biggest risk remains Wheaton’s ability to secure large, accretive new streams in a market that’s becoming more competitive. For now, this gold price surge materially strengthens the company’s near-term growth story.

The surge in quarterly earnings, up 138% year over year, is arguably the most relevant announcement, as it directly reflects Wheaton’s leverage to higher commodity prices and the effectiveness of its streaming model. When prices spike, Wheaton’s margins can expand more rapidly than traditional miners, translating into both higher profits and recent dividend increases. Despite this momentum, investors should remember that these record results are heavily dependent on continued strength in precious metal prices…

Read the full narrative on Wheaton Precious Metals (it’s free!)

Wheaton Precious Metals is expected to achieve $2.2 billion in revenue and $1.1 billion in earnings by 2028. This outlook is based on an assumed annual revenue growth rate of 9.2% and an earnings increase of $311 million from the current level of $789 million.

Uncover how Wheaton Precious Metals’ forecasts yield a CA$174.47 fair value, a 9% upside to its current price.

Seven fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span a wide range, from US$65.96 to US$186.39. While some see significant upside, the risk of a shrinking pipeline of large, high-quality streaming deals could limit Wheaton’s earnings growth if competition continues to intensify, making it essential to review these diverse opinions before you make up your mind.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Wheaton Precious Metals – why the stock might be worth as much as 17% more than the current price!

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes – extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Wheaton Precious Metals research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.

• Our free Wheaton Precious Metals research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual – the Snowflake – making it easy to evaluate Wheaton Precious Metals’ overall financial health at a glance.

Right now could be the best entry point. These picks are fresh from our daily scans. Don’t delay:

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include WPM.TO.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

MSD’s investigational two-drug HIV combination has been proven safe, efficacious and non-inferior to current standard of care (SoC) in two Phase III trials.

During the MK-8591A-052 study (NCT05630755), patients treated with DOR/ISL, a combination of MSD’s marketed antiretroviral, Pifeltro (doravirine) plus investigational medication islatravir, maintained vital suppression and demonstrated non-inferiority to SoC of bictegravir/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (BIC/FTC/TAF).

There was also negligible impacts on both weight and body composition at week 48, with a mean weight drop of 0.03kg compared with baseline, while those who continued on BIC/FTC/TAF experienced a 0.28kg weight gain. Throughout the study period, 14.6% of those given DOR/ISL experienced a ≥5% weight gain, while 16.0% experienced this in the SoC group from baseline.

Meanwhile, in both the MK-8591A-051 (NCT05631093) and MK-8591A-052 trials, patients who switched to DOR/ISL from Biktarvy experienced no clinically meaningful changes in fasting lipids. This includes total cholesterol, as well as low- and high-density lipoprotein (HDL, LDL) and triglyceride levels.

Mean blood glucose and fasting insulin level changes were also minimal across treatment groups in both studies.

These findings are notable as chronic antiretroviral use can often cause weight gain or changes to body composition, as well as dyslipidaemia – all of which can contribute to a patient’s risk of developing comorbid cardiovascular conditions.

According to Dr Chloe Orkin, dean for healthcare transformation, Queen Mary University of London, the Phase III findings are “important to consider,” as many patients with HIV face weight-related issues such as obesity.

HIV landscape undergoes another shift

These results follow MSD’s previous positive Phase III readouts for Pifeltro-islatravir, which prompted the New Jersey pharma to file a new drug application (NDA) for the combination to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The target action date for the application is the 28 April 2026.

If approved, the combination would become the first two-drug regimen without an integrase inhibitor to get the regulatory green light in HIV.

Anaelle Tannen, infectious disease analyst at GlobalData, noted that this could be a “particularly important development for older patients with comorbid conditions,” as a two-drug regimen is associated with lower toxicities relative to the three-drug alternative.

However, Tannen caveated that Biktarvy will likely remain the SoC due to “physician familiarity and the drug’s strong efficacy and safety profile”.

“DOR/ISL is an oral daily drug, so it doesn’t have a benefit in terms of less frequent dosing, and islatravir itself has been associated with lymphocytopenia toxicity in previous trials,” Tannen said. “However, Biktarvy has been connected with weight gain and if DOR/ISL doesn’t have this side-effect, patients may prefer this option.”

However, penetrating Biktarvy’s market share could be a tough nut to crack for MSD, known as Merck in the US, as the drug currently holds the market-leading spot in the first-line HIV setting. Analysts at GlobalData also forecast that Biktarvy will remain in the top spot over the forecast period, with sales exceeding $11.6bn in the US alone by 2033.

GlobalData is the parent company of Clinical Trials Arena.

Meanwhile, Pifeltro-islatravir will reach blockbuster status by 2030, with the combination estimated to pull in $1.7bn by 2033, as per a patient-based forecast from analysts at GlobalData.

However, islatravir could have another shot at glory on the HIV market, as two Phase III trials are currently assessing islatravir plus Gilead’s HIV drug, Sunlenca (lenacapavir). The combination was recently found to maintain viral suppression for two years when administered orally once-weekly in a Phase II trial.

If approved, the Sunlenca-islatravir duo could become the first weekly oral treatment option for patients with HIV, which could boost medication adherence and administration convenience.

By Annabel Kartal Allen