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Intuitive Machines (LUNR) has drawn fresh attention as investors weigh the impact of new US export curbs on tech to China. At the same time, the company is advancing its IM-3 lunar mission and securing NASA contracts.

See our latest analysis for Intuitive Machines.

Intuitive Machines stock has whipped through a period of volatility, recently clawing back gains with a 28% share price return over the past month despite ongoing US-China export tensions and scrutiny following past missions. Although year-to-date share price return remains in negative territory, the strong one-year total shareholder return of 60% suggests that long-term momentum is still firmly alive for patient investors.

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Given its recent contract wins, strong analyst sentiment, and a price still about 20 percent below consensus targets, are investors overlooking an undervalued space innovator? Or is future growth already built into the current share price?

With Intuitive Machines closing at $12.81 and the most widely followed narrative placing fair value at $15.43, this perspective sets a higher bar than the current market price. This hints at room for re-rating if assumptions hold.

Strategic vertical integration of satellite and lander manufacturing, along with proprietary advancements from the KinetX acquisition, enhances cost efficiencies, IP control, and technological differentiation. These factors support higher net margins and competitive pricing power as the company scales recurrent service contracts across civil, defense, and commercial markets.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what assumptions drive this bullish view? The narrative’s fair value hinges on powerful expansion bets, bold profit transformation, and sky-high valuation multiples rarely seen outside tech’s heavyweights. Curious which projections could justify such optimism? Discover the numbers on the next page.

Result: Fair Value of $15.43 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, persistent losses and heavy reliance on large government contracts could quickly dampen the bullish outlook if execution or funding falls short.

Find out about the key risks to this Intuitive Machines narrative.

While Intuitive Machines looks attractive when compared to its fair value estimate, a look at its price-to-sales ratio tells a different story. The company is trading at 6.7 times its sales, which is much higher than the US Aerospace & Defense industry average of 3.2 and the peer average of 2.7. The market’s fair ratio, based on regression analysis, stands at just 1.4 times sales. This large gap suggests considerable valuation risk if the company fails to maintain its growth edge. Which view should investors trust?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

If you think there’s another angle to the Intuitive Machines story or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can shape your own take on the company in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Intuitive Machines research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include LUNR.

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