For September, retail sales, a key gauge of consumption, likely grew 3.0% on year, down from August’s 3.4% increase, the poll shows. Industrial production is estimated to have grown 5.3%, marginally above August’s 5.2%. Fixed-asset investment likely stayed flat in the first three quarters of the year, compared with a 0.5% rise through August. Property data due the same day are expected to show another weak month for the housing sector.
The People’s Bank of China will also announce the country’s benchmark lending rates on Monday, which are widely expected to remain unchanged.
Separately, China’s ruling communist elites are set to convene a meeting from Monday to Thursday to review the country’s 15th Five-Year Plan, mapping out key policy initiatives for the world’s second-largest economy for the rest of the decade. While detailed targets will be unveiled next March, economists at Morgan Stanley expect the focus to remain on “technological self-sufficiency, innovation and national security,” with limited market-moving surprises.
Australia / New Zealand
In Australia, attention will be focused on further communication from the Reserve Bank of Australia. While senior officials have recently signaled more interest-rate cuts, they may start rowing back those comments after data showed unemployment jumped to its highest level since late 2021.
Even with inflation risks lingering, the rise in unemployment to 4.5% in September adds pressure on the RBA to keep lowering the official cash rate. The increase may reflect weaker government hiring and continued softness in the private sector, compounded by global trade uncertainty and China's tariff headwinds.
A speech by RBA Gov. Michele Bullock on Friday will be a key focus in an otherwise light data week.
In New Zealand, third-quarter inflation data on Monday will draw close attention. Policymakers appear increasingly attuned to signs of weakness, making further rate cuts all but certain.
Indonesia
Bank Indonesia is set to announce its policy decision on Wednesday and is widely expected to continue cutting interest rates to support growth.
UOB economist Enrico Tanuwidjaja thinks the easing cycle is not complete, but the end is near. He expects a 25-basis-point cut to 4.50% in October, followed by another reduction in the first quarter of 2026, with rates likely to remain steady through the year after that.
Malaysia
Malaysia's September inflation data is likely to show a small uptick in price pressures but not enough to move the needle for the central bank.
ANZ expects CPI to have edged up to 1.5% from 1.3% in August, driven by slightly higher utilities and transport costs. However, with the government reduction of fuel prices, transport inflation could ease in the coming months, ANZ said.
Overall, inflation is expected to stay subdued, supported by weak global commodity prices and moderating domestic demand. ANZ doesn't anticipate Bank Negara Malaysia to cut rates again soon unless growth weakens significantly.
South Korea
The Bank of Korea is expected to hold rates when the monetary policy board meets on Thursday, keeping policy settings unchanged for a third consecutive session.
Analysts have recently pushed back forecasts for the central bank to deliver a rate cut from October to November or later, citing continued financial stability risks tied to household debt and Seoul's overheated property market. Lower borrowing costs could further stoke mortgage lending, complicating the BOK's decision.
Goldman Sachs economists said the government's latest housing stabilization measures-tightening mortgage and property transaction rules-support the case for the BOK to hold rates in October while signaling a dovish bias for November.
The central bank may wait for home prices to stabilize before delivering another cut, Citigroup economist Jin-Wook Kim said.
Singapore
Singapore will release its September inflation data on Thursday. The central bank recently said core inflation, a measure excluding private road transport and accommodation, could bottom out soon and rise gradually in 2026.
Core inflation cooled to 0.3% on year in August from 0.5% in July. ANZ Research expects September to mark the low point of weak inflation, forecasting a 0.2% on-year rise in core prices and a 0.6% gain in headline inflation.
Any references to days are in local times.
Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Jihye Lee at jihye.lee@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 19, 2025 17:14 ET (21:14 GMT)
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