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“Highly significant” cyber-attacks rose by 50% in the past year and the UK’s security services are now dealing with a new nationally significant attack more than every other day, figures from the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) have revealed.

In what officials described as “a call to arms”, national security officials and ministers are urging all organisations, from the smallest businesses to the largest employers, to draw up contingency plans for the eventuality that “your IT infrastructure [is] crippled tomorrow and all your screens [go] blank”.

The NCSC, which is part of GCHQ, said “highly sophisticated” China, “capable and irresponsible” Russia, Iran and North Korea were the main state threats, in its annual review published on Tuesday. The rise is being driven by ransomware attacks, often by criminal actors seeking money, and society’s increasing dependence on technology which increases the number of hackable targets.

The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, the security minister, Dan Jarvis, and the technology and business secretaries, Liz Kendall and Peter Kyle have written to the leaders of hundreds of the largest British companies urging them to make cyber-resilience a board-level responsibility and warning that hostile cyber-activity in the UK has grown “more intense, frequent and sophisticated”.

“Don’t be an easy target,” said Anne Keast-Butler, the director of GCHQ. “Prioritise cyber risk management, embed it into your governance and lead from the top.”

NCSC dealt with 429 cyber incidents in the year to September and nearly half were classed as of national significance – more than doubling in the past year. Eighteen were “highly significant”, which means they had a serious impact on the government, essential services, the mass population or the economy. Most of those were ransomware incidents, including the attacks that significantly affected Marks & Spencer and the Co-op Group.

“Cybercrime is a serious threat to the security of our economy, businesses and people’s livelihoods,” said Jarvis. “While we work round the clock to counter threats and provide support to businesses of all sizes – we cannot do it alone.”

The NCSC declined to comment on reports that one line of investigation into the crippling attack on Jaguar Land Rover, which has halted manufacturing, is examining Russian involvement. It said Russia is inspiring informal “hacktivists” who are targeting the UK and the US, as well as European and Nato countries.

Overall, the number of attacks in the year to September represented the highest level of cyber threat activity recorded by the NCSC in nine years. Over the 12 month period, the UK and its allies uncovered a Russian military unit carrying out cyber-attacks for the first time, issued advice to counter a China-linked campaign targeting thousands of devices and raised the alarm over cyber-actors working for Iran, according to the NCSC. But the threat is also homegrown, and last week two 17-year-olds were arrested in Hertfordshire over the alleged ransomware hack of children’s data from the Kido nursery chain.

Hackers are also increasingly using artificial intelligence (AI) to sharpen their operations, and while the NCSC has yet to face an attack initiated by AI, it said: “AI will almost certainly pose cyber-resilience challenges to 2027 and beyond.”

“We do see our attackers improving their ability to cause real impact, to inflict pain on the organisations they have breached and those who rely on them,” said Richard Horne, the NCSC’s chief executive. “They don’t care who they hit or how they hurt them. That is why we need all organisations to act.”

He stressed the emotional impact of becoming a victim of cyber-attacks and said: “I’ve sat now in too many rooms with individuals who have been deeply affected by cyber-attacks against their organisations … I know the impact the disruption has on their staff, suppliers and customers, the worry, the sleepless nights.”

BBC

Lukman Ashraf

“Rare earths are a very useful weapon for China,” the private equity mogul told Fortune in an interview. “For giving up a little bit of revenue, they are achieving a pretty good bang for the buck.”

China doesn’t control most of the world’s rare earth mines, but it does dominate the refining and processing systems where 90% of global capacity sits. These materials— about 17 obscured elements like neodymium and dysprosium—are essential inputs in electric vehicles, magnets, wind turbines, high-end semiconductors, F-35 fighter jets, and guided missiles. 

Ross says U.S. vulnerability has been building quietly for years, but only became visible after China introduced new export licensing requirements that he calls a “disguised rationing system.”

“They have imposed a registration process, which is just a way to mask the controls,” Ross said. “Who knows how deliberately slow they’ll make the approvals.”

 In other words, Ross thinks China can now ration supply to U.S. manufacturers, and do it without formally violating trade agreements.

 “It’s a very effective weapon … and it attacks our high-tech things and our national defense needs.”

Factory shutdowns now a real risk

Ross warned that supply strain may start hitting U.S. industry within six to 12 months unless trade tensions ease. Several automakers stockpiled rare earths at the start of the trade war, he said, but those reserves were only ever “a rounding error.”

“No one knows exactly how big the excess quantities of rare earths that American companies built up are,” he said. “But you probably would have some shutdowns if this standoff continues.”

Ford Motor Co. has already publicly warned it could be forced to idle at least one factory if rare earth supplies tighten further. And while that would represent only a small portion of U.S. capacity, Ross says it could mark the start of broader disruptions.

“Rare earths are used in fighter planes, rockets, all kinds of applications,” Ross said. “Basically anything that requires advanced semiconductors usually has some need for rare earths.”

Even small interruptions matter because of how heavily modern manufacturing depends on advanced chips. A typical U.S. vehicle now contains 400–500 semiconductors, and EVs require even more—making rare earths a single point of failure for both the clean energy transition and national defense.

Ross: China has ‘no incentive’ to negotiate

Asked whether a trade resolution with China is realistic, Ross was skeptical. 

“It’s not at all clear to me that China really wants a trade deal,” he said, adding that years of negotiations across both the Trump and Biden administrations have yielded “not a heck of a lot to show for it.”

Ross said Beijing sees no urgency to bargain. 

“[President] Xi [Jinping] can continue portraying this as something the evil U.S. is doing,” he said, explaining that China benefits politically from framing itself as the target of American aggression.

“So far, there hasn’t been enough pain inflicted on China for them to feel a need to get serious about negotiating.”

The next front may be even more volatile. Lawmakers in Washington have floated the idea of tightening advanced AI chip exports to China, but Ross warned that could set off a dramatic escalation.

“Putting an embargo is a pretty hard thing to do. That could very well be interpreted as an act of war,” he said. “If we did that, China might put a blockade on Taiwan.”

Such a move would cripple global technology markets overnight. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) makes more than 90% of the world’s most advanced chips, including those used in U.S. defense systems and cutting-edge AI. 

“That would be catastrophic,” Ross said.

Now, he believes the U.S. is still playing catch-up in a minerals conflict that China prepared for years ago. Domestic processing plants are being built in the U.S. and Europe, he said, but they won’t be operational fast enough to eliminate short-term supply risk.

“We have a timing disconnect,” he said. “China is acting now.”

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