Blog

(Bloomberg) — Central bankers, already uneasy about trade tensions and swelling public debt, will collectively confront a new worry in the coming week: the danger of a market crash.

Global policymakers and finance ministers will gather in Washington for the International Monetary Fund/World Bank fall meetings after a chorus of warnings that a stock bubble focused on artificial intelligence companies might burst before long.

Most Read from Bloomberg

Kristalina Georgieva, the fund’s managing director, acknowledged the financial stability risk in a speech on Wednesday that previewed topics for discussion in the coming days.

“Valuations are heading toward levels we saw during the bullishness about the internet 25 years ago,” she said. “If a sharp correction were to occur, tighter financial conditions could drag down world growth, expose vulnerabilities, and make life especially tough for developing countries.”

Her warning was arguably more forthright than the IMF’s commentary from the October 2000 meeting, when its World Economic Outlook described “still high” equity valuations and the potential for imbalances to unwind “in a disorderly fashion.” Within months, the selloff momentum was such that the Federal Reserve was forced to deliver an emergency half-point interest-rate cut.

Even before US President Donald Trump’s renewed China tariff threat tanked stocks on Friday, officials saw alarming parallels. The Bank of England just warned of the risk of a “sharp market correction,” European Central Bank policymakers worried aloud, and the Reserve Bank of Australia this month also noted vulnerabilities.

Such concerns have been mounting for a while. ECB officials were presented with the warning of “sudden and sharp price corrections” at their last policy meeting more than a month ago, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell observed in September that markets are “highly valued.”

Fast forward to the coming week, and the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report — a publication that didn’t even exist back in 2000 — may draw more attention than usual on Tuesday. The latest WEO, with economic forecasts for the world, will also be released.

Statements from Group of Seven or Group of 20 ministers attending the IMF gathering will also be scrutinized, as will the cacophony of policymakers likely to share their views.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

“Artificial intelligence might be a bubble. It is also a juggernaut. The IMF is doubtless correct to warn that valuations are stretched. More doubtful — whether those warnings register with investors gripped by fear of missing out.”

—Tom Orlik, global chief economist. For more research, click here

Elsewhere, trade and consumer price data in China and India, UK wage and growth numbers, and Monday’s announcement in Stockholm of the Nobel Prize for Economics will be among the week’s highlights.

Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.

US and Canada

In the US, where official economic data releases remain delayed by a government shutdown, investors will focus on Powell’s assessment of the labor market and inflation. He’ll offer an outlook for the economy and monetary policy at the National Association for Business Economics on Tuesday.

Powell’s speech highlights a week full of appearances by central bankers, including Fed governors Christopher Waller, Michael Barr and Stephen Miran, as well as regional Fed bank presidents Anna Paulson, Susan Collins and Alberto Musalem.

Economic data releases include the September small-business optimism index and October manufacturing surveys from the Fed banks of New York and Philadelphia. On Wednesday, the Fed issues its Beige Book — anecdotal information about economic conditions around the country.

Canada’s Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne and central bank Governor Tiff Macklem attend the meetings in Washington, with Macklem also scheduled to appear at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers is set to speak in Vancouver about Canada’s urgent need to boost productivity.

Home sales and housing start data for September will offer a look at Canada’s slow real-estate recovery, which may have gotten a mid-month boost from the Bank of Canada’s rate cut.

Asia

Asia’s week will be dominated by a mix of trade, inflation and policy signals that should help clarify how the region is coping with heightened global uncertainty and widening policy divergence.

China sets the tone at the start of the week with trade figures likely to show exports picking up in September. The same day, India is expected to report a further cooling in consumer price gains.

On Tuesday, Singapore’s central bank is likely to keep monetary settings unchanged after two rounds of easing earlier this year. The city-state also publishes advance third-quarter GDP data, which should confirm that growth cooled after a strong June quarter.

Singapore’s review follows a flurry of policy moves across the region, with Indonesia and New Zealand extending their easing cycles to support growth amid rising trade protectionism, while Thailand, Malaysia and Australia opted to hold steady as they monitor the impact of earlier cuts.

Minutes from the Reserve Bank’s September meeting on Tuesday will offer a window into how officials are weighing the risks of cutting further against a still-firm labor market. National Australia Bank’s business survey is released the same day.

China on Wednesday reports September prices data that are likely to show deflation persisting in Asia’s largest economy, underscoring how domestic demand remains fragile despite recent policy support.

India’s trade figures the same day will show the impact of hefty US tariffs, while import trends will offer a read on domestic consumption and investment appetite. The country also releases its unemployment rate that day.

Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura, a hawk who called for a rate hike last month, speaks on Thursday, followed by Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida on Friday. Given the collapse in the nation’s governing coalition after Sanae Takaichi’s victory in the ruling party leadership race, investors will be on watch for any change in tone.

Australian jobs data will show whether hiring remains strong enough to keep policy on hold into year-end. On Friday, South Korea and Malaysia report trade figures while Singapore publishes export data.

Europe, Middle East, Africa

Appearances in Washington by ECB President Christine Lagarde and BOE Governor Andrew Bailey will be among the highlights. Back in the euro region, the saga over France’s budget after another government collapse will focus investors in a relatively quiet week for data.

Among the statistics on the calendar, Germany’s ZEW investor confidence index on Tuesday and euro-zone industrial production on Wednesday may draw the most attention.

On Friday, a potential ratings update on Italy from Morningstar DBRS could be significant. With the country on a positive outlook, an upgrade would give it the highest rating since 2019 from any one of the five companies used by the ECB to assess collateral.

In the UK, wage data on Tuesday are expected to show some weakening in the measure that excludes bonuses, a result that might reassure BOE officials gauging the strength of inflation. Growth numbers two days later are predicted to show a slight increase in gross domestic product in August after no change the prior month.

In Israel, inflation data on Wednesday may show an acceleration to 3.1% in September from 2.9% in August. The central bank held rates steady last month, anticipating price growth to hover around 3% — the upper end of its range — before easing in early 2026.

Turning to Africa, Nigerian numbers the same day will probably reveal inflation slowing below 20% last month for the first time since 2022, helped by softer food prices during the main harvest and a stronger naira. Such cooling could give the central bank scope for another 50-basis-point cut in November.

With most central bankers at the IMF meeting, only a couple of rate decisions are on the calendar. In Namibia, policymakers are expected to keep their rate unchanged at 6.75% on Wednesday, with inflation edging higher. Seychelles is likely to leave borrowing costs on hold the same day.

Latin America

A $20 billion swap line with the US Treasury, along with currency market intervention on Thursday, for now likely heads off a full-blown economic crisis for Argentina, but the peso’s selloff preceding the rescue left a mark on inflation and expectations alike.

September data reported Tuesday will likely show that consumer prices rose more than 2% on the month for the first time since April.

Brazil and Peru — Latin America’s largest- and sixth-largest economies, respectively — will post August GDP-proxy figures in the coming week. Brazilian economic activity fell for a third month in July, the longest month-on-month slump since 2019.

The 50% tariffs on exports to the US that went into effect in August, coupled with tight monetary conditions, stand a good chance of dragging activity down to a fourth straight negative print.

Peruvian activity bounced back in July, and yet another private pension fund withdrawal should provide support into year-end.

Meanwhile, Colombia’s economy is riding a jump in demand that saw monthly activity rebound in July from a tumble in June.

GDP-proxy data, retail sales, manufacturing and industrial output — on the schedule for the coming week — all posted positive readings for a second straight month in July for the first time since late 2022.

Analysts, who’ve marked up third-quarter GDP estimates while trimming their forecasts for the next six months, see Colombia’s economic growth picking up for a second year, followed by a third year in 2026.

–With assistance from Vince Golle, Swati Pandey, Robert Jameson, Monique Vanek, Mark Evans, Laura Dhillon Kane, Cécile Daurat and Beril Akman.

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.