Blog

28 October 2025

Compared with August 2025:

• median consumer perceptions of inflation over the previous 12 months remained unchanged, as did median expectations for inflation three years ahead and five years ahead, while median inflation expectations for the next 12 months decreased slightly;
• expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months were unchanged, while expectations for spending growth over the next 12 months increased;
• expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months and the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time were both unchanged;
• expectations for growth in the price of homes over the next 12 months increased, as did expectations for mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead.

Inflation

In September, the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months remained unchanged at 3.1% for the eighth consecutive month. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months decreased to 2.7%, from 2.8% in August. Expectations for inflation three years ahead were unchanged at 2.5%, as were those for five years ahead, which remained unchanged at 2.2%. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged in September. Respondents in lower income quintiles continued to report on average slightly higher inflation perceptions and short-horizon expectations than those in higher income quintiles, a trend observed since 2023. However, the broad evolution of inflation perceptions and expectations remained relatively closely aligned across income groups. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 35-54 and 55-70).

Inflation results

Income and consumption

Consumers’ nominal income growth expectations over the next 12 months remained at 1.1% in September, unchanged from August. Perceived nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months decreased to 4.9%, from 5.0% in August. Expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months increased to 3.5% in September, from 3.3% in August, with respondents in the lowest three income quintiles showing slightly higher spending growth expectations than those in the highest two quintiles.

Income and consumption results

Economic growth and labour market

Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months remained stable in September at -1.2%. Expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead also remained stable, standing at 10.7% in September. As in previous months, lower-income households expected the highest unemployment rate 12 months ahead (12.7%), while higher-income households expected the lowest rate (9.4%). Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.2%), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.

Economic growth and labour market results

Housing and credit access

Consumers expected the price of their home to increase by 3.5% over the next 12 months, up from 3.4% in August. Compared with previous months, home price growth expectations were more aligned across income categories, standing at 3.5% and 3.4% for the lowest and highest income quintiles respectively. Expectations for mortgage interest rates over the next 12 months increased to 4.6%, from 4.5% in August. As in previous months, lower-income households expected the highest mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead (5.3%), while higher-income households expected the lowest rates (4.0%). The net percentage of households reporting a tightening (relative to those reporting an easing) of access to credit over the previous 12 months declined marginally, while the net percentage of households expecting tighter credit conditions over the next 12 months increased for the third consecutive month.

Housing and credit access results

The microdata underlying the aggregate results are available in the Data and methodological information section of the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) web page.

The release of the CES results for October is scheduled for 28 November 2025.

For media queries, please contact: Benoit Deeg, tel.: +49 172 1683704.

Notes

• Unless otherwise indicated, the statistics presented in this press release refer to the 2% winsorised mean. For further details, see ECB Consumer Expectations Survey – Guide to the computation of aggregate statistics.
• The CES is a monthly online survey of, currently, around 19,000 adult consumers (i.e. aged 18 or over) from 11 euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The main aggregate results of the CES are published on the ECB’s website every month. The results are used for policy analysis and complement other data sources used by the ECB.
• Further information about the survey and the data collected is available on the CES web page. Detailed information can also be found in the following two publications: Bańkowska, K. et al., “ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: an overview and first evaluation”, Occasional Paper Series, No 287, ECB, Frankfurt am Main, December 2021; and Georgarakos, D. and Kenny, G., “Household spending and fiscal support during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from a new consumer survey”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 129, Supplement, July 2022, pp. S1-S14.
• The survey results do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or staff.