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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

Oct 13 – Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) continues to dominate headlines as its stock slices through new all-time highs, fueled by powerful waves of AI demand. In just a 6 month, the chip giant delivered nearly 80% total return, outpacing the S&P 500 by more than 20%. A jolt came last Friday: news of Trump’s threat of a 100% tariff on China triggered a 6% pullback, though underlying momentum in AI spending still looks firm.

Hyperscale cloud players continue locking in deals to expand data center capacity ahead of demand. Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) saw its stock jump over 20% recently, backed by explosive year-over-year growth in multicloud database bookings. Its partnerships with Microsoft, Amazon (AMZN), and Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) have powered that surge.

Meanwhile, a major pivot in chip supply is likely underway. AMD (AMD) has inked a significant multi-year AI chip contract with OpenAI, agreed to supply about 6 gigawatts of capacity starting 2026, and granted OpenAI the option to acquire up to 10% of its shares. That deal reverberated across the sector, as AI buyers increasingly diversify beyond Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). NVDA, in turn, earlier struck a $100 billion partnership with OpenAI to help build AI infrastructure at scale.

TSM sits at the fulcrum of this shift: while chip designers like NVDA and AMD lean into R&D and architecture, they depend heavily on TSM for fabrication. Though Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) may try to reenter the race in the long term, its execution gaps leave it playing catch-up for now.

With that perspective, the TSM FY2026 appears to be very strong due to a number of mega deals with leading chip manufacturers and cloud technology companies. The volatility in the near term could be due to trade-war headlines but the broad AI tailwinds are likely to keep pushing the demand. As market mood might waver, TSM remains at the centre of the next layer of AI infrastructure development due to its fundamental positioning in terms of chip design as well as manufacturing.

Crude palm oil (CPO) futures reversed direction after a three-day rally to close lower on Friday, as traders digested news from the September Malaysia data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) and amid positioning ahead of the weekend.

The most-active December CPO futures contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell by 0.98% to 4,546 ringgit ($1,077) per tonne after trading between 4,525-4,612 ringgit per tonne and extending losses from earlier in the day, when it closed 10 ringgit per tonne lower at 4,581 ringgit per tonne at the end of morning trading session.

Losses were extended into the afternoon following data from MPOB which showed a build-up in stocks instead of a previously anticipated decline, though indications of better October exports helped to curb the drop in CPO futures.

On a weekly basis, the most-active third month contract has rose by 2.34% compared with 4,591 ringgit per tonne on October 3, with support stemming mainly from news of Indonesia’s B50 biodiesel upgrade plans and movement in related oils.

Chinese vegoil futures closed mixed on Friday after strong increases the previous day, with the most-active January palm olein futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange falling by 0.78% to 9,438 yuan ($1,323) per tonne as it tracked a similar movement with Malaysia palm oil futures.

The January soybean oil futures on DCE was marginally higher by 8 yuan per tonne to 8,302 yuan per tonne, while the January rapeseed oil futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell by 1.33% to close at 10,061 yuan per tonne.

On the news front, Malaysia’s palm oil stocks rose for a seventh straight month to 2.36 million tonnes at the end of September, against earlier average market estimates of 2.15 million-2.16 million tonnes, with the resultant increase due to smaller-than-expected declines in production, higher imports and lower local disappearance.

CPO production was marginally lower by 0.73% to 1.841 million tonnes, while exports rose by 7.69% to 1.43 million tonnes. Imports were recorded at 78,413 tonnes, up by 34% on the month, while local disappearance fell by 33% to 333,432 tonnes.

Meanwhile, cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services (ITS) and Amspec Agri Malaysia reported October 1-10 exports for Malaysia at 523,602 tonnes and 495,415 tonnes respectively, 9.86% and 19.4% higher from their respective September estimates. The increase helped limit losses in CPO futures amid optimism for stronger October export demand.

In the cash market, CPO was traded at $1,162 per tonne CFR Kandla for October shipment and at $1,170 per tonne CFR east coast India for November-December shipment.

Offers heard toward the close of the day were at $1,165-1,170 per tonne CFR west coast India (WCI) for October cargoes, while offers for November shipment were around $1,175-1,185 per tonne CFR WCI and $1,185 per tonne CFR WCI for December shipment.

At origin, CPO offers out of Indonesia were limited, while offers for olein were at $1,100 per tonne FOB Indonesia for November shipment, with a trade at $1,095 per tonne FOB Indonesia also heard concluded earlier in the day for November shipment.

Soyoil futures

In the Americas, soyoil futures plummeted in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, borrowing weakness from crude markets.

Soyoil CME futures for December delivery declined by 2.22% day on day to 49.84 cents per lb at 1pm US Eastern time, erasing weekly increases.

Crude prices weighed on the soyoil market, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate contracts down by 3.7-4.2% day on day amid risk-off positioning backed by progress in peace negotiations for the conflict in the Gaza Strip.

The US soybean market also faced headwinds from what seems to be a deteriorating atmosphere for trade negotiations between the US and China. China has been strict on the limitations to its rare earths exports and has imposed retaliatory charges on US vessels docking at Chinese ports, while US President Donald Trump threatened to cancel the meeting he is scheduled to have with Chinese President Xi Jinping in three weeks’ time.

The US dollar reversed directions from the previous trading day, devaluating when measured against a basket of reserve currencies and putting an end to a four-day rally. This helped capping soyoil losses somewhat.

December CME soymeal futures fell slightly to $276 per short ton at 1pm US Eastern time, with some underlying support from product spreading dynamics.

In the physical market in South America, the bases negotiations for both soyoil and soymeal were slower with the holiday in Argentina.

The November basis was assessed at a discount of 0.75 cents per lb in Argentina and at a premium of 0.90 cents per lb in Brazil, both to December futures.

On the soymeal front, the November basis was assessed at a discount of $7.50 per short ton in Brazil, while in Argentina the corresponding basis was assessed at a discount of $11.50 per short ton to the same futures contract.

As of 6:15pm Central European time, Euronext November rapeseed futures were trading at €467.25 ($542) per tonne, down by €4.50 per tonne from the previous session.

FOB Rotterdam rapeseed oil prices fell on Friday.

For the November–December–January (NDJ) window, offers were made at €1,087-1,093 per tonne, compared with €1,090-1,105 per tonne on Thursday October 9, while bids were made at €1,061-1,065 per tonne, compared with €1,070 per tonne on Thursday.

For the February-March-April (FMA) window, offers were made at €1,058-1,070 per tonne and bids were made at €1,048-1,050 per tonne, compared with offers of €1,065-1,082 per tonne and bids at €1,055-1,060 per tonne on Thursday.

Rapeseed oil was heard to have traded at €1,054 per tonne for the FMA window on Friday.

FOB sunflower oil prices across six EU ports eased on Friday in a correction after hitting nearly three-year highs.

For the November-December window, offers were made at $1,355 per tonne with bids of $1,330 per tonne, compared with offers made at $1,360-1,390 per tonne and bids of $1,340 per tonne on Thursday.

For the January–February–March (JFM) window, offers were made at $1,325 per tonne and drew bids of $1,310 per tonne, compared with offers of $1,327.50-1,330.00 per tonne and bids of $1,300.00-1,322.50 per tonne on Thursday.

No sunflower oil trades were heard on Friday.

Black Sea sunflower oil

The Black Sea sunflower oil market recorded limited activity on Friday, with October–November offers reported around $1,300 per tonne CIF Mersin/Iskenderun. Buyers, recognizing that earlier levels were no longer workable, have raised ideas into the $1,275–1,285 per tonne range compared with softer levels earlier in the week.

TMO has issued an international tender for 18,000 tonnes of sunflower oil for November delivery. The tender is scheduled for Thursday October 16. In its previous tender on September 12, TMO awarded 18,000 tonnes of crude sunflower oil for October delivery — 6,000 tonnes to Tekirdag at $1,256 per tonne CFR and 12,000 tonnes to Iskenderun/Mersin at $1,253.80 per tonne CFR.

In other news, Russia’s Agriculture Ministry has revised down its 2025 sunflower harvest forecast to 17.5 million tonnes, compared with 18.3 million tonnes in 2024. The downgrade reflected weaker yields, particularly in the southern regions, despite expectations of record gross production across several other crops this season.

Fastmarkets’ comprehensive coverage includes a wide range of veg oils and meals, including palm, coconut, cottonseed, peanut, sunflower and canola. Our dedicated team of price reporters and analysts monitors these markets daily to provide you with the most up-to-date pricing information.