By Dow Jones Newswires staff
Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting Aug. 11.
U.S. inflation data for July will be closely watched, particularly after recent weak jobs data increased prospects for U.S. interest-rate cuts, while retail sales will also give a clue about how tariffs are affecting consumers.
Investors will also watch closely for any further news on tariffs after reciprocal duties recently came into effect against multiple countries.
In Europe, U.K. gross domestic product data will be watched after the Bank of England cut interest rates but was cautious about prospects for further reductions in borrowing costs. A rate decision is also due in Norway.
In Asia, a closely watched deluge of data from China is expected to be released, offering fresh clues on the health of the world's second-largest economy. Central bank decisions from Australia and Thailand will shed light on policymakers' thinking, while price data from India and growth figures from Singapore and Malaysia will provide insight into how trade-reliant economies are faring.
U.S.
U.S. inflation data for July on Tuesday will mark the key focus for investors in the coming week.
These figures have the potential to switch the market's attention toward concerns about the inflationary impact of tariffs, after hefty tariffs on multiple countries took effect on Aug. 7. This follows recent much weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data, which significantly increased the prospect of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September.
The recent U.S. ISM services PMI data showed a significant rise in the prices paid sub-index, which reminded markets that "inflation is still a force to be reckoned with," said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at trading platform IG, in a note.
Economists at Citi said investors will be watching to see the extent to which tariffs are affecting prices after the previous data for June showed "early signs of larger increases in goods prices."
They expect this pass-through to expand modestly in July, resulting in a stronger increase in core goods prices. The impact is likely to be more evident into the fall however, and shouldn't prevent the Fed from cutting rates next month, particularly given a weak labor market, they said.
Evidence on pipeline inflationary pressures will be provided later, with July producer price data due on Thursday.
Other data later in the week could highlight a wobbly economy, however. Weekly jobless claims data are due Thursday, followed by retail sales for July and the University of Michigan preliminary consumer survey for August on Friday.
Investors will also pay close attention to any further news on U.S. tariff plans for specific sectors in the coming week, particularly on pharmaceuticals. Reciprocal U.S. tariffs on imports from multiple countries came into force on Aug. 7.
Latin America
Inflation data from Brazil for July are due on Tuesday.
Eurozone
The week is relatively light in terms of eurozone data.
Final inflation figures for July are released from Italy on Monday, then from Germany and Spain on Wednesday and from France on Thursday.
Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index for August will be released on Tuesday and will give an indication of how much relatively high U.S. tariffs on eurozone goods have knocked sentiment.
Eurozone industrial production for June is due on Thursday, alongside second-estimate eurozone GDP data for the second quarter.
Government-bond issuance swings into the seasonal slowdown with auctions from Finland on Tuesday and Germany on Wednesday. Germany will offer 5 billion euros in August 2035 Bunds.
U.K.
The Bank of England reduced interest rates by 25 basis points in its latest decision. However, the vote was very tight, with four out of nine members preferring to leave rates unchanged. The vote highlighted a very tricky outlook for the economy, with inflation high as the economy weakens.
The tight vote, concerns about inflation and the BOE's forecast that annual inflation would peak at 4.0% in September caused sterling and gilt yields to rise as investors pared back expectations for another rate reduction in November.
Upcoming data, however, have the potential to switch investors' focus back toward concerns about the economic outlook. These include jobs and wages data on Tuesday, followed by gross domestic product data for the second quarter and June industrial production on Thursday.
Other data include the British Retail Consortium's retail sales survey for July on Tuesday and the RICS housing survey for July on Thursday.
The U.K. plans to sell government bonds maturing in March 2030 on Tuesday.
Scandinavia
Inflation data for July are due from Norway on Monday and from Sweden on Thursday.
Norges Bank also announces a policy decision on Thursday, where interest rates are expected to be left on hold at 4.25% after they were lowered at the previous meeting.
"We expect Norges Bank to leave rates on hold and reiterate the message from June that while further interest rate cuts are likely this year, 'a restrictive monetary policy is still needed'," Capital Economics economist Jack Allen-Reynolds said in a note.
Sweden will auction 1 billion kroner in 2031-dated bonds and 5 billion kroner in May 2035-dated bonds on Wednesday.
Japan
Japan will release second-quarter gross domestic product figures, after the Bank of Japan reiterated its view that growth will likely moderate. The central bank expects underlying CPI inflation to improve only gradually, citing continuing uncertainties around global trade policies, according to minutes from its July meeting.
Goldman Sachs economists now forecast an annualized 0.1% gain for the quarter ending June, a slight upward revision from their previous forecast of 0%. They attribute this to resilient private consumption and solid capital expenditure, despite a slowdown in exports as U.S. tariffs take effect.
While a trade deal with the U.S. has helped reduce some uncertainty, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda remains cautious. He noted that the economic impact of high tariffs remains unclear, and underlying inflation is still below the 2% target.
"We expect the BOJ to maintain the policy rate as a precautionary measure for the time being," Goldman Sachs economists wrote, reiterating their view that the next interest-rate hike will likely come in January 2026.
China
A flurry of official data due Friday will offer the most comprehensive look yet at China's economic momentum in July. A Wall Street Journal survey of economists suggests industrial production and investment likely softened from a year earlier, as extreme weather, including heavy rainfall, disrupted activity. However, consumption appears to have held up, buoyed by continued government subsidies.
Industrial output likely grew 5.8% on year in July, down from 6.8% growth in June, while fixed-asset investment is expected to have risen 2.7% in the January to July period, slightly below the 2.8% pace set in the first half. Retail sales, a key consumption indicator, likely rose 5.0% in July, up from June's 4.8% growth, supported by the summer travel rush.
The deluge of data will also offer an update on the struggling property sector, with economists expecting no meaningful rebound. Property investment, new housing starts, and first-hand home sales likely continued to decline.
Economists say the mixed data is unlikely to prompt additional policy easing.
"China's Politburo meeting on July 30, held after the China-U.S. trade talks in Stockholm, indicated no additional stimulus but focused on fine-tuning the existing fund utilization," ANZ economists said, suggesting authorities are broadly comfortable with current momentum.
Meanwhile, investors await clarity on whether Beijing and Washington will extend their tariff truce ahead of the Aug. 12 deadline.
While China's exports continued to outperform expectations in July, with U.S.-bound shipments falling for a fourth straight month but rising elsewhere, economists expect the pace to slow later this year as front-loading fades.
"Export growth may decelerate as the effect of front-loading in anticipation of U.S. tariffs wears off," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
Australia and New Zealand
It will be a data-heavy week in Australia, with the Reserve Bank of Australia set to deliver a third interest-rate cut this cycle and update its economic forecasts.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock is expected to maintain a cautious tone, emphasizing global risks and the need to move gradually. Markets will pay close attention to any changes in the RBA's unemployment forecasts, especially after a surprise uptick in the jobless rate last month.
Key economic data includes second-quarter wage growth on Wednesday and July employment figures on Thursday. While the RBA is expected to highlight strength in sectors like construction, another rise in unemployment could increase pressure on the bank to ease further.
India
India's inflation data, due Tuesday, will show whether consumer prices continued to ease in line with the central bank's expectations.
Analysts at ANZ and Citi expect July to record the lowest monthly inflation reading since the current series began in 2012. ANZ attributes the subdued reading to deflation in food and beverages and stable gold prices.
Citi analysts added that favorable base effects and below-trend seasonal increases in vegetable prices likely contributed to the cooling inflation.
Thailand
The Bank of Thailand is set to announce its interest-rate decision on Wednesday, just weeks after the U.S. imposed a 19% tariff on Thai goods, a rate notably lower than the 36% announced in April.
Barclays economists expect the BOT to hold rates steady, noting that the 19% tariff aligns with the central bank's reference scenario and doesn't yet pose a major downside risk to growth projections.
Malaysia
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August 10, 2025 17:14 ET (21:14 GMT)
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