MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
No major economic or corporate trading updates expected
Opening Call:
European and U.S. stock futures rose to start the week. Asian stock benchmarks advanced; the dollar edged lower; while oil and gold futures fell.
Equities:
Stock futures rose early Monday as traders look ahead to U.S. inflation data and President Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday.
Investors will be watching closely for any evidence of prices rising in the U.S. economy due to tariffs, with data from the consumer-price index due out Tuesday. Some worry that a “stagflationary trend” risks taking hold, which involves both inflation and the unemployment rate picking up, said Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab.
Hotter-than-expected inflation could “deliver a reality check to the market,” potentially causing stocks to stumble from their recent rebound in the U.S., Gordon said.
Forex:
U.S. tariff revenue continues to increase every month and will erode profit margins if businesses don’t raise selling prices, CBA said. If U.S. July core CPI is stronger than expected by economists, risks are that the greenback recoups some of its recent losses, the bank said.
Bonds:
Local governments in the U.S. have been flooding the market with new municipal bonds. The added supply has been blamed for a decline in the price–and consequent increase in yields–of munis. Painful as they may be for bond holders, high yields are an appealing entry point for investors interested in the munis’ tax exemption benefit.
Conning’s Cindy Beualieu expects munis to remain attractive, but at more normal levels. “We aren’t calling for significantly lower rates.”
Energy:
Oil futures fell in Asia amid easing concerns about supply disruptions.
Geopolitical risks have eased, ANZ said, citing the news of talks between Trump and Putin. Also, U.S. tariffs have officially commenced, raising worries over weaker economic activity and hence, demand for crude oil, it added.
Metals:
Gold edged lower early Monday as traders assessed mixed signals on the likelihood of U.S. tariffs on the precious metal.
There was a supposed change by U.S. customs authorities over the classification for a kilogram bar and a 100-oz bar, which would lead to them being subjected to import tariffs, said UOB. However, “the White House was said to be issuing a clarification soon on this matter, but investor nerves may have been frayed amidst the constant fear of import tariffs on gold,” it added.
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LME aluminum prices have been relatively stable since July following a recovery in May and June, HSBC said. The bank expects the metal’s exports from China to stay soft after a drop in July, citing U.S. tariffs, withdrawal of China’s 13% export-tax rebate since December, capacity caps and robust domestic demand.
Aluminum industry fundamentals look solid, backed by the 45 million-ton production cap in China and resilient demand, HSBC said.
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Media reports of significant lithium-production capacity closures in China could mark an inflection point for sentiment if confirmed, Jefferies said. “According to media sources, the Jianxiawo lepidolite mine will cease production” and has no plan to restart. That huge mine is owned by battery maker CATL.
Supply cuts in China could help to reset the balance in the lithium market, the bank said. Lithium prices have fallen by as much as 90% since a 2022 peak amid a global glut of the battery metal.
TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
American Companies Are Buying Their Own Stocks at a Record Pace
American companies are repurchasing their shares at a record pace, boosting their balance sheets and fueling the U.S. stock rally.
U.S. companies have announced $983.6 billion worth of stock buybacks so far this year, the best start to a year on record, according to Birinyi Associates data going back to 1982. They are projected to purchase more than $1.1 trillion worth overall in 2025, which would mark an all-time high.
Trump’s Tariffs Won’t Solve U.S. Chip-Making Dilemma
President Trump’s chip-tariff regime could disrupt the global electronics trade and send prices of all kinds of goods higher. One thing it appears unlikely to do: bring advanced chip-making roaring back in the U.S.
Trump last week threatened a 100% tariff on “chips and semiconductors,” but offered an exemption. Companies that commit to “build in the U.S.” won’t have to pay the duty, according to Trump.
Ukraine and Europe Counter Putin’s Cease-Fire Proposal
BERLIN-European powers and Ukraine responded to Vladimir Putin’s cease-fire plan with a counterproposal that they say must serve as a framework so that coming talks between President Trump and the Russian leader can gain traction, according to European officials familiar with the talks.
The European plan rejected a Russian proposal to trade Ukrainian-held parts of the Donetsk region for a cease-fire. It was put forward in a meeting with top U.S. officials in England on Saturday.
Why India Can’t Afford to Jettison Its Relationship With Russia
President Trump is using the threat of stiff tariffs to try to peel India away from Russia, as he attempts to boost pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
But decades of close economic, political and military relations between New Delhi and Moscow mean Trump faces a challenge in persuading Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to drop a partnership that has survived great geopolitical turmoil.
Nvidia, AMD to Give U.S. 15% Cut on AI Chip Sales to China
Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices have agreed to give the Trump administration a portion of the sales from their artificial-intelligence chips to China, unusual agreements that deepen their relationships with the U.S. government.
The Trump administration will receive 15% of the sales as part of a deal to approve exports of Nvidia’s H20 AI chip to China, according to people familiar with the matter. That could amount to billions of dollars given demand for the H20 chips and is the latest example of the White House employing novel tactics to raise revenue.
Intel CEO Singled Out by Trump to Visit White House on Monday
Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan is set to visit the White House Monday after President Trump called for his removal last week over ties to Chinese businesses, according to people familiar with the matter.
Tan is expected to have a wide-ranging conversation with Trump, with the intent of explaining his personal and professional background, the people said. He could also propose ways that the government and Intel could work together, they said.
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Expected Major Events for Monday
06:00/ROM: Jun International trade
06:00/DEN: Jun External trade (provisional figures)
06:00/DEN: Jun Balance of payments (provisional figures)
06:00/NOR: Jul CPI
06:00/NOR: Jul PPI
06:00/DEN: Jul CPI
07:00/SVK: Jun Construction production
07:00/TUR: Jun Industrial Production Index
07:00/CZE: Jul CPI
07:00/CZE: Jun Import & export price indices
08:00/ITA: Jul CPI
09:00/MLT: Jun International Trade
09:00/CYP: Jun Foreign Trade (provisional)
09:00/ITA: Jun Foreign Trade EU
15:59/UKR: Jul CPI
23:01/UK: Jul BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor
23:01/UK: Jul UK Nations and Regions Growth Tracker
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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 11, 2025 00:17 ET (04:17 GMT)
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