The connection between greenhouse gases and space weather might seem surprising, but it illustrates just how interconnected Earth’s atmospheric layers really are. While carbon dioxide warms the lower atmosphere by trapping heat, it has the opposite effect in the thin regions of the upper atmosphere, roughly 300-400 miles above Earth’s surface. At these extreme altitudes, carbon dioxide actually cools the atmosphere by radiating heat directly into space, causing the air to become significantly less dense over time.
This atmospheric thinning has implications for how geomagnetic storms will affect satellites in the future. When these solar disturbances strike Earth’s atmosphere, they temporarily heat and expand the upper atmospheric layers, increasing air density and creating more drag on orbiting spacecraft. This extra drag can alter satellite speeds, lower their orbits, and shorten their operational lifespans.
The familiar aurora displays are the result of geomagnetic storms
To understand how this dynamic will change, researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research used sophisticated computer models to simulate how the May 2024 geomagnetic superstorm would have behaved in different atmospheric conditions. They compared the storm’s effects in 2016 with projections for 2040, 2061, and 2084, assuming continued increases in carbon dioxide levels.
The results reveal a complex picture. On one hand, future geomagnetic storms will occur in a much thinner baseline atmosphere, 20 to 50 percent less dense at storm peaks compared to today. This means the absolute density during future storms will be lower than equivalent storms today, potentially reducing overall satellite drag. However, the relative impact of storms will actually become more dramatic.
Satellites in orbit like this telecommunications satellite are likely to be more effected by geomagnetic storms in the future
While current geomagnetic storms roughly double atmospheric density at their peak, future storms could nearly triple the density from their lower baseline. Think of it like drops of food colouring in water, the same amount of colouring creates a much more dramatic change in a smaller glass of water than in a large one.
“The way that energy from the sun affects the atmosphere will change in the future because the background density of the atmosphere is different and that creates a different response.” – Lead researcher Nicholas Pedatella from the National Center for Atmospheric Research
The research also highlights the remarkable complexity of Earth’s atmospheric system. Changes in greenhouse gas concentrations near the surface create cascading effects that reach hundreds of miles into space, demonstrating how human activities can influence regions of the atmosphere far removed from direct industrial emissions.
This shift matters enormously for satellite operators who must design spacecraft for specific atmospheric conditions and predict their orbital behaviour over years or decades. Modern society depends heavily on satellite based technologies for GPS navigation, internet communications, weather forecasting, and national security applications. As the number of satellites continues to grow exponentially understanding how space weather will evolve becomes increasingly critical.
Source : As the atmosphere changes, so will its response to geomagnetic storms