Thinking about whether Expand Energy is a bargain or overpriced? You are not alone, and digging into valuation can reveal some unexpected insights.
The stock has powered up with a 21.4% jump over the past month, and is now up 27.1% over the last year, making investors wonder if there could be more growth ahead or if the risk profile has changed.
Expansion plans and recent announcements about new project partnerships have caught the market’s attention, with analysts crediting these developments as the catalysts behind recent price moves. The increased investor interest seems to tie directly to these strategic moves rather than to earnings chatter.
Currently, Expand Energy scores 2 out of 6 on our valuation checks. This means it is undervalued on just a third of the key measures we track. Let us break down how analysts typically assess value, and why there might be an even better way to spot opportunities. Stay tuned for that at the end.
Expand Energy scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s intrinsic value by taking its future projected cash flows and discounting them back to today’s value. This approach aims to determine what the business is truly worth, regardless of current market sentiment.
For Expand Energy, the DCF is based on projected Free Cash Flow (FCF) figures. Over the last twelve months, Expand Energy generated $1.07 Billion in cash flow. Analyst estimates cover up to five years, with projections beyond that extrapolated by Simply Wall St’s model. Five years out, FCF is expected to rise to $2.90 Billion by 2029. By 2035, total annual FCF could reach approximately $3.13 Billion, if current trends persist.
According to this two-stage DCF approach, the resulting estimated intrinsic value per share is $275.13. Compared to the current market price, this implies the stock is trading at a 55.7% discount, a significant degree of undervaluation.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Expand Energy is undervalued by 55.7%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 920 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.
EXE Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025
Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Expand Energy.
For profitable companies like Expand Energy, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is often the go-to valuation tool. It gives investors a quick sense of how much they are paying for each dollar of earnings the company generates, offering a direct way to compare value across businesses with positive bottom lines.
A “normal” or “fair” PE ratio considers not just how much a company is currently earning, but also how fast those earnings are growing and the risks involved. Faster-growing or lower-risk companies tend to deserve a premium with higher PEs, while slow-growth or higher-risk companies typically trade at a discount.
At the moment, Expand Energy trades at a PE ratio of 33.49x. This is more than double the average PE for the Oil and Gas industry, which sits at 13.30x, and it is also significantly higher than the average for its closest peers at 15.33x. These comparisons might make the stock look expensive at first glance.
However, Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” offers a more nuanced benchmark. Unlike basic peer or industry averages, the Fair Ratio takes into account the company’s specific growth outlook, profit margins, size, and risk profile as well as industry and market cap, to deliver a more precise estimate of what would be a fair multiple for Expand Energy. For this company, the Fair Ratio comes out at 23.07x.
When we compare Expand Energy’s current PE of 33.49x with its Fair Ratio of 23.07x, it suggests that investors are paying a premium well above what is justified by its fundamentals and outlook.
Result: OVERVALUED
NasdaqGS:EXE PE Ratio as at Nov 2025
PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1442 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Earlier, we mentioned there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let’s introduce you to Narratives.
A Narrative is simply your story about a company. It is how you connect the numbers, like future revenue or margins, with what you believe is actually possible for that business. Instead of just relying on a single forecast, Narratives let you combine your perspective on things like expansion plans, market risks, or breakthrough events with realistic financial assumptions to generate an independent view of fair value.
Narratives link a company’s story to a forecast, and then connect that forecast to a fair value, making the entire investment decision process much more intuitive. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors are already using Narratives to build, share, and compare these perspective-driven valuations. No spreadsheets or complex models are required. Narratives auto-update whenever new news or fresh earnings arrive so your story can keep pace with the real world.
For example, with Expand Energy, some investors are bullish, expecting rapid digital-driven margin gains and forecasting a high fair value of $154.00. More cautious analysts, concerned about stranded asset risks, see a fair value closer to $98.00. The platform lets you easily compare these views to the current share price and decide if it is time to buy or hold.
Do you think there’s more to the story for Expand Energy? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
NasdaqGS:EXE Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include EXE.
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