TJX Companies (TJX) delivered a strong third-quarter earnings report, easily outpacing sales and profit expectations for fiscal 2026. The company followed up by raising its full-year sales and earnings forecasts, which signals management’s confidence in ongoing growth and market share gains.
See our latest analysis for TJX Companies.
TJX shares recently hit a new all-time high, reflecting a wave of investor optimism after the company beat estimates and raised its outlook for the year. The momentum is clear in the numbers, with a share price return of 25.4% year-to-date and a one-year total shareholder return of 22.4%, compounded by an impressive 97.5% over three years. With upbeat earnings and rising investor confidence, TJX is showing strong signs of durable long-term growth.
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With TJX shares pushing to fresh highs, investors face a pressing question: does the stock have further room to run, or has upbeat performance led the market to already price in sustained earnings growth?
With TJX Companies’ last close of $151.92 and the most-followed narrative fair value at $159.16, market consensus suggests there is still some upside for the stock based on updated business momentum.
The company’s strong portfolio of brands and ability to adjust pricing across nearly all categories have allowed it to maintain value proposition scores, supporting customer loyalty in a dynamic retail environment.
Read the complete narrative.
Want to know the secret behind this premium valuation? There is a delicate mix of ambitious earnings forecasts, margin improvements, and bold assumptions for future growth. Click through to uncover what figures drive this narrative’s punchy price target and just how bullish those projections really are.
Result: Fair Value of $159.16 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, risks remain. An accelerating shift to e-commerce or changes in sourcing dynamics could dampen TJX’s future growth story and margin outlook.
Find out about the key risks to this TJX Companies narrative.
Looking through a different lens, TJX shares are trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33x. This is much higher than the US Specialty Retail industry average of 18x and the peer group at 20.2x. The market’s fair ratio points to 21x, so today’s valuation carries added risk if expectations slip. Does this premium suggest the stock has already run too far ahead?