Cactus’ estimated fair value is US$80.54 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Cactus’ US$42.92 share price signals that it might be 47% undervalued
Our fair value estimate is 66% higher than Cactus’ analyst price target of US$48.63
Does the November share price for Cactus, Inc. (NYSE:WHD) reflect what it’s really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock’s intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There’s really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
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We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today’s dollars:
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$286.6m
US$278.7m
US$276.3m
US$277.4m
US$280.9m
US$286.1m
US$292.6m
US$300.1m
US$308.5m
US$317.5m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x2
Analyst x2
Est @ -0.83%
Est @ 0.39%
Est @ 1.25%
Est @ 1.86%
Est @ 2.28%
Est @ 2.57%
Est @ 2.78%
Est @ 2.92%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.0%
US$268
US$243
US$225
US$211
US$200
US$190
US$182
US$174
US$167
US$161
(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$2.0b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today’s value at a cost of equity of 7.0%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$8.7b÷ ( 1 + 7.0%)10= US$4.4b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$6.4b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$42.9, the company appears quite good value at a 47% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope – move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
NYSE:WHD Discounted Cash Flow November 30th 2025
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company’s future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Cactus as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 7.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.816. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
See our latest analysis for Cactus
Strength
Weakness
Opportunity
Threat
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It’s not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company’s cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Cactus, we’ve compiled three further factors you should look at:
Risks: Be aware that Cactus is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about…
Future Earnings: How does WHD’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
