Viasat (VSAT) is back in focus after a one two punch of product momentum and new client wins, from upgraded NexusWave maritime connectivity to a fresh in flight Wi Fi deal with Azerbaijan Airlines.
See our latest analysis for Viasat.
Those connectivity wins come after a volatile stretch for the stock, with a roughly 252 percent year to date share price return and a 263 percent one year total shareholder return, suggesting momentum is very much rebuilding around the Viasat story.
If you like how Viasat is repositioning around connectivity demand, it could be worth scanning high growth tech and AI stocks for other tech names riding similar structural growth trends.
With the shares up more than 250 percent this year but still trading at a steep intrinsic discount and only a modest gap to Wall Street targets, is Viasat a mispriced turnaround, or is the market already banking on years of growth?
With Viasat closing at $33.57 against a narrative fair value of $36.25, the implied upside leans modestly positive, hinging on improving profitability and capital discipline.
The focus on operational efficiency, portfolio review, and progressing integration with Inmarsat, in addition to CapEx peaking with the ViaSat-3 program, sets up Viasat for positive free cash flow inflection, deleveraging, and earnings improvement as major investment cycles wind down. Rising government and commercial interest in bridging the digital divide, especially in underserved and remote areas, provides a multi-year tailwind through subsidy programs and public/private contracts, supporting stable, recurring revenue streams and margin visibility.
Read the complete narrative.
Want to see the math behind that upside call? The narrative leans on slower but steady revenue gains, sharply better margins, and a future earnings multiple that might surprise you.
Result: Fair Value of $36.25 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, execution risk around ViaSat-3 spending and intensifying competition from Starlink and Project Kuiper could quickly undermine the turnaround narrative that investors are embracing.
Find out about the key risks to this Viasat narrative.
If this take does not quite match your view, or you would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom storyline in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Viasat research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.