Dec. 4, 2025, London: As the global energy transition accelerates, rising demand for some critical metals is outpacing supply chain capacity, creating structural market imbalances that threaten to constrain decarbonisation efforts, according to BloombergNEF’s Transition Metals Outlook 2025. Copper, graphite, aluminium, lithium, cobalt and manganese are all seeing sharp demand increases thanks to electric vehicles, energy storage, grid expansion and data centers.
According to the report, China continues to dominate global supply chains, holding midstream capacity in aluminium, graphite, manganese, cobalt and rare earths. Other regions have made efforts to diversify: Europe and the US have strengthened domestic supply for some metals, while Southeast Asia has expanded nickel production, with Indonesia and the Philippines anchoring upstream operations. Australia, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia and South Africa are implementing policy measures such as export restrictions, sovereign investments and fiscal incentives. Nonetheless, upstream refining capacity remains largely concentrated in China, leaving many regions dependent on imports and exposing global supply chains to disruption.
Copper faces significant pressure, with the market entering a structural deficit next year and facing a projected shortfall of 19 million metric tons by 2050 if new mines and recycling facilities are not developed. Graphite is expected to face a technical deficit after 2030 as battery demand grows faster than primary supply. Meanwhile, lithium production is set to expand significantly, supported by new extraction projects in South America and Africa and increased recycling of retired batteries.
The analysis also highlights the growing importance of policy and investment in shaping metals markets, as well as developments in company strategy. Recent interventions in cobalt production in the Democratic Republic of Congo have helped stabilize prices. Major mining companies – including BHP, Anglo American, Rio Tinto and Glencore – have begun to prioritize capital expenditure over shareholder distributions, with explosive copper demand emerging as a central driver in this reorientation.
For the past 30 years, China was able to build its mineral empire by pouring money into securing raw materials from the world’s suppliers, securing access to crucial mines in countries like Australia, Chile, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and then systematically building out massive processing capabilities. Through economies of scale, it has become the lowest-cost producer globally. Looking to diversify this concentration in a single region, other countries are now looking to build up their own domestic supply chains.
Decarbonizing metal production is also critical as renewables scale. Steel, aluminium and copper contribute the majority of embodied emissions in wind and solar projects. Operational carbon offsets allow many technologies to achieve payback in just months, but neglecting upstream decarbonization prolongs embedded emissions, underlining the need for a holistic approach that prioritizes both upstream and downstream investment.
Other key findings of the report include:
- Total lithium capacity from both primary and secondary sources could reach 4.4 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2035, up from 1.5 million metric tons LCE in 2025.
- The manganese market is projected to remain balanced through 2050. Unlike other energy transition commodities, manganese faces no major supply risks concerning reserves or production capacity, though regional policy and logistics constraints may influence short-term availability. Total supply is set to grow by roughly 1% a year between 2025 and 2050, as primary supply utilization rates adjust to meet demand.
- Cobalt prices are likely to remain elevated in 2026 as a result of the DRC’s export ban.
- Iron ore remains the dominant revenue source for most companies analyzed, though exposure has declined with falling prices. Copper has also become another key revenue driver. Its share of BHP revenues rose to 38% in 2024 from 27% in 2020, while Anglo American doubled its exposure to 26% from 13%, making copper its largest contributor. Rio Tinto increased to 16% from 11%, and Zijin held steady at 20%.