Heat waves in Africa have become significantly hotter, longer and more frequent over the last four decades, according to a new study led by researchers at the University of Illinois Chicago (UIC).
The study, which used large-ensemble climate models to examine trends across the continent, links these changes primarily to greenhouse gas and black carbon emissions from fossil fuel use.
The research is published in Communications Earth & Environment.
Gaps in infrastructure and data limit Africa’s climate resilience
The researchers compared heat wave trends between two time periods: 1950–1979 and 1985–2014. The results showed that while the earlier period experienced infrequent and relatively weak heat waves, the later decades saw events occurring up to every two years and lasting three times longer on average.
The study highlights the specific vulnerability of African nations to extreme heat, due in part to limited adaptive infrastructure and insufficient meteorological data. In countries where early-warning systems and cooling infrastructure are often lacking, heat waves pose direct threats to public health, agricultural productivity and energy systems.
“Raising awareness of heat waves is critical to saving human life,” said Akintomide Afolayan Akinsanola, head of the Climate Research Lab and an assistant professor of earth and environmental sciences in the UIC College of Liberal Arts and Sciences. “In a developing continent like Africa, where the capacity for adaptive infrastructure is relatively low, heat waves can have greater consequences.”
During one particularly extreme event in April 2024, the West African city of Kayes recorded temperatures exceeding 119 °F (48 °C). Similar events strain already overburdened power grids and reduce crop yields. Populations such as infants, older adults and those with chronic conditions are especially susceptible to heat-related illness.
“The impacts are wide-ranging, from productivity to food shortage to energy,” said Akinsanola, who is jointly appointed at the Environmental Science Division of Argonne National Laboratory. “Remember that the African population is close to 2 billion. Heat waves can lead to drought, trigger migration and spark conflicts, thereby impacting regional, continental and even global stability.”
Emissions shift the balance from natural to anthropogenic drivers
Using computer model simulations from the Community Earth System Model 2—Large Ensemble, the researchers were able to isolate the factors contributing to daytime, nighttime and compound heat waves, including human-driven influences like greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions as well as natural variability.
In the earlier period, natural variability explained most of the observed activity, but by 1985–2014, only 30% of heat wave events were attributed to natural causes.
The team also notes that sulfate aerosols – a type of airborne particle produced naturally by volcanic activity and through fossil fuel combustion – once played a cooling role in the earlier decades by making clouds reflect more light back into space. However, their relative influence has diminished over time.
In the more recent data, greenhouse gas and black carbon emissions – linked to incomplete combustion of fuels – emerged as a strong contributor to increased heat wave intensity and frequency.
The study also found that rising near-surface air temperatures closely correlate with heat wave frequency, suggesting shared underlying drivers such as changes in air circulation and energy balance at the land surface.
Notably, these trends were not isolated to specific countries or regions. Instead, consistent increases in heat wave activity were observed across North, West, East, Central and Southern Africa.
“I was surprised to see that these changes were consistent across the African subregions, not just a specific isolated area,” said Vishal Bobde, a doctoral student in Akinsanola’s lab and the study’s first author.
Modelling climate futures under global emissions scenarios
Looking ahead, the researchers plan to assess how global mitigation strategies, including those proposed under the Paris Agreement, might influence future heat wave patterns in Africa.
“While Africa contributes a relatively small share of global greenhouse gas emissions, climate change is a global issue that is intensifying heat waves everywhere. Addressing this requires global cooperation to aggressively reduce emissions and build adaptive capacity,” said Kayode Ayegbusi, co-first author and UIC doctoral student in Akinsanola’s lab.
The authors suggest that their work could support more accurate forecasting of extreme heat and inform policy decisions aimed at improving early-warning systems and public health interventions across the continent.
Reference: Bobde V, Ayegbusi K, Akinsanola AA, Adeyeri OE, Morakinyo TE, Adebiyi AA. Anthropogenic warming is accelerating recent heatwaves in Africa. Commun Earth Environ. 2025;6(1):578. doi: 10.1038/s43247-025-02578-6
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