Nutanix’s fair value estimate has been cut from about $85.78 to $70.70 as analysts recalibrate expectations for the company in light of its latest quarter. With the discount rate nudging higher from roughly 8.66% to 8.79% and modeled revenue growth easing from 14.83% to 13.00%, the market narrative is shifting to a more balanced view of Nutanix’s opportunity and execution risk. Read on to see how these changing assumptions are reshaping the story around Nutanix and how you can stay ahead of future narrative shifts.
Stay updated as the Fair Value for Nutanix shifts by adding it to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our Community to discover new perspectives on Nutanix.
🐂 Bullish Takeaways
Several firms, including Oppenheimer, JPMorgan, Piper Sandler, Barclays, and Needham, maintain positive stances (Outperform, Overweight, Buy) even after trimming price targets. This signals continued confidence in Nutanix’s long term growth and execution.
Oppenheimer, with a Street high $90 target, argues Nutanix is well positioned to benefit from the shift to HyperConverged Infrastructure, potential VMware displacement at renewal, and growing demand for unstructured data to power AI applications.
JPMorgan, with a modestly lower $78 target, still expects near term revenue and earnings upside from AI related demand. The firm suggests that AI leveraged use cases could support the company’s growth trajectory and valuation over time.
Needham, despite cutting its target to $65 from $80, highlights that a greater mix of contracts with future start dates mainly depresses in quarter revenue rather than free cash flow. The firm believes that, absent this timing issue, Nutanix would have exceeded the high end of revenue guidance.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
Price targets have been broadly revised down, with Piper Sandler moving to $72 from $88, Barclays to $64 from $82, JPMorgan to $78 from $81, and Needham to $65 from $80. These changes reflect tempered expectations for Nutanix’s near term growth and, by implication, its valuation upside.
Piper Sandler flags that Nutanix missed expectations for the first time in more than 5 years and cut its FY26 guide by about 3%. This combination has weighed on sentiment and raised questions about the durability of prior growth assumptions.
BWG Global has shifted its view to Mixed from Positive, and Northland has downgraded the stock to Market Perform from Outperform. These moves underscore a more cautious stance on risk reward and suggest that some of the upside may already be reflected in the share price.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!
NasdaqGS:NTNX Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
Nutanix issued Fiscal 2Q 2026 revenue guidance of $705M to $715M and a full year Fiscal 2026 revenue outlook of $2.82B to $2.86B, reflecting management’s expectations for continued top line growth.
The company announced support for Microsoft Azure Virtual Desktop on Nutanix AHV for hybrid environments, allowing customers to run Azure Virtual Desktop on premises while relying on Azure for management and brokering in the cloud.
DartPoints joined the Nutanix Elevate Service Provider Program to offer fully managed, compliance focused private cloud solutions built on Nutanix hyperconverged infrastructure for highly regulated industries.
Nutanix shares were added to the S&P 400, S&P 400 Application Software, S&P 400 Information Technology, and S&P Composite 1500 indices, which may increase the company’s visibility and potential ownership among index and passive investors.
The fair value estimate has fallen significantly, from approximately $85.78 to $70.70, reflecting lower modeled revenue growth and a slightly higher discount rate.
The discount rate has risen slightly, from about 8.66% to 8.79%, modestly increasing the hurdle rate applied to future cash flows.
Revenue growth has been trimmed meaningfully, from an expected 14.83% to 13.00%, indicating more conservative top line assumptions.
Net profit margin has improved modestly, from roughly 14.75% to 15.84%, incorporating higher long term profitability expectations.
The future P/E multiple has been reduced notably, from around 52.6x to 41.8x, aligning the valuation more closely with the updated growth and risk profile.
Narratives are investor written stories that connect what a company does with where its finances might go, linking your view on Nutanix’s strategy to explicit forecasts for revenue, earnings, margins, and a Fair Value estimate. On Simply Wall St’s Community, millions of investors use Narratives as an easy tool to compare Fair Value with today’s share price, decide when to buy or sell, and automatically keep their view up to date as new news, guidance, or earnings arrive.
Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on Nutanix to stay on top of:
How partnerships with Google Cloud, AWS, Azure, Dell, and Pure support multi cloud adoption and potential long term market share gains.
Whether projected revenue growth of ≈13% and margin expansion can justify analysts’ Fair Value compared with the current price.
Key risks, from public cloud competition to pricing pressure, that could derail the story or create new entry points.
Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include NTNX.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
