While the US Federal Reserve’s final interest rate meeting this year could see an unusual amount of division, financial markets view a third straight interest rate cut as nearly certain.
When the Fed last met in October, Chair Jerome Powell asserted that another rate cut in December was “not a foregone conclusion,” pointing to “strongly differing views” within the central bank.
Minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting showed many officials expect a further uptick in underlying goods inflation as President Donald Trump’s tariffs bite.
But recent comments from leading Fed officials also reflected support for cutting again because of a weakening labor market, even though inflation is still above the Fed’s two percent target.
Next week’s outcome in the “deeply divided” Fed was “too close to call,” UniCredit said, also acknowledging that favorable comments from New York Fed bank chief John Williams towards a cut were a notable “intervention.”
“As one of the most senior members of the (Fed committee), it seems unlikely Williams would have said this without Powell’s prior approval,” UniCredit said.
Policymakers generally hold rates at a higher level to tamp down price increases, but a rapidly deteriorating jobs market could nudge them to slash rates further to boost the economy.
“Usually, as you get closer to a policy meeting, it becomes quite apparent and transparent what the Federal Open Market Committee is going to do,” said Nationwide Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic, referring to the Fed’s rate-setting committee.
“This time is very different,” she told AFP late last month.
Financial markets rallied following Williams’ statement on November 21 that rates could go lower in the “near term.”
Futures markets currently show more than 87 percent odds that the Fed will cut rates to between 3.50 percent and 3.75 percent, according to CME FedWatch.
– Dearth of data –
The Fed moved into rate cutting mode this fall, with rate cuts both in September and October.
But a government shutdown from October 1 through November 12 sapped the central bank of most of the key data points for assessing whether inflation or employment is now the bigger priority.
The latest available government data showed the jobless rate crept up from 4.3 percent to 4.4 percent in September, even as hiring beat expectations.
While delayed publications on September’s economic conditions have trickled out, the US government has canceled full releases of October jobs and consumer inflation figures because the shutdown hit data collection.