Wondering if American Bitcoin at around $2.23 is a bargain or a value trap? You are not alone. This article is here to unpack what the market is really pricing in.
Despite all the hype around crypto infrastructure, the stock has been hammered recently, dropping about 47.4% over the last week, 51.9% over the last month, and 65.2% year to date. This has clearly reset expectations and risk appetite.
Those sharp moves have come alongside broader volatility in Bitcoin related names, shifting regulatory headlines around digital assets, and ongoing debates over the sustainability of crypto mining economics. At the same time, traders have been repricing high beta, speculative tech plays as interest rate expectations and liquidity conditions evolve.
Against that backdrop, American Bitcoin currently scores a 4 out of 6 on our valuation checks. This suggests it screens as undervalued on most, but not all, of our metrics. Next we will walk through those methods one by one before finishing with a more holistic way to think about what this stock is really worth.
American Bitcoin delivered 0.0% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Software industry.
A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back to today in $ terms.
For American Bitcoin, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about $26.4 Million, and the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model assumes this will grow rapidly over the next decade. Simply Wall St uses analyst estimates for the next few years, then extrapolates beyond that, with projected Free Cash Flow rising from roughly $45.7 Million in 2026 to about $231.6 Million by 2035 as growth gradually slows.
When these future cash flows are discounted back to today, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of roughly $2.99 per share. The current share price is about $2.23, so according to this DCF the stock is trading at a 25.3% discount. This indicates potential upside if the projected cash flow path occurs.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests American Bitcoin is undervalued by 25.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 907 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.
ABTC Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025
Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for American Bitcoin.
For a company that is generating profits, the price to earnings, or PE, ratio is often the cleanest way to gauge what the market is willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. It naturally ties valuation to the bottom line, which tends to be more durable than short term swings in revenue or book value, especially in a cyclical, capital intensive space like Bitcoin mining.
What counts as a reasonable PE depends on how fast investors expect earnings to grow and how risky they perceive those earnings to be. Higher growth and more predictable cash flows usually justify a higher PE, while volatile or uncertain earnings deserve a discount. Right now, American Bitcoin trades on a PE of about 12.4x, which is far below the broader Software industry average of roughly 31.5x and well under a peer group that averages around 98.3x. This suggests the market is heavily discounting its earnings.
Simply Wall St goes a step further with its Fair Ratio, a proprietary view of what PE multiple a stock should trade on after accounting for its earnings growth outlook, risk profile, profit margins, industry characteristics and market capitalization. This is more informative than a simple peer or sector comparison, because it adjusts for whether American Bitcoin truly deserves a premium or discount. On that basis, the shares appear to be trading below their Fair Ratio. This points to a market price that does not fully reflect the company’s fundamentals.
Result: UNDERVALUED
NasdaqCM:ABTC PE Ratio as at Dec 2025
PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1452 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect the story you believe about a company with the numbers that sit behind its fair value. A Narrative is your own perspective on American Bitcoin, captured as assumptions about its future revenue, earnings and profit margins, which then flow into a financial forecast and finally into an estimated fair value per share. On Simply Wall St, millions of investors build and share Narratives on the Community page, making it easy and accessible to see how different stories translate into different valuations and buy or sell decisions by comparing each Narrative’s Fair Value to today’s Price. Narratives are also dynamic, so when new information like earnings releases or major news arrives, the numbers and fair value estimates can update to reflect the latest outlook. For example, one American Bitcoin Narrative on the platform might see aggressive growth and a high fair value while another assumes muted growth and a much lower fair value, giving you a clear sense of the range of reasonable outcomes.
Do you think there’s more to the story for American Bitcoin? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
NasdaqCM:ABTC Earnings & Revenue History as at Dec 2025
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ABTC.
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