Assessing SolarEdge After a 2024 Rebound and Steep Multi Year Share Price Collapse

  • If you are wondering whether SolarEdge Technologies at around $29 is a bargain or a value trap after its collapse from prior highs, you are not alone. This breakdown will tackle that question head on.

  • The stock is still down about 90.6% over three years and 89.9% over five years. However, it has bounced in 2024 with a 99.5% year-to-date gain and a 131.0% return over the last year, despite sliding 19.2% in the past week and 26.2% over the last month.

  • Investors have been reacting to a mix of cautious solar industry sentiment, ongoing concerns about oversupply in key markets, and shifting expectations for policy support in the US and Europe. These factors have fueled large swings in solar stocks like SolarEdge. At the same time, headlines around grid modernization, energy storage adoption, and residential solar demand volatility are influencing how the market prices SolarEdge’s role in the transition to cleaner energy.

  • Against that backdrop, SolarEdge currently scores a 5/6 valuation check score, suggesting it appears undervalued on most of our metrics. Next, we will unpack what that means across different valuation approaches and then finish with a more structured way to think about its long-term value story.

SolarEdge Technologies delivered 131.0% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Semiconductor industry.

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today using a required rate of return. For SolarEdge Technologies, the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model starts from last twelve months free cash flow of about $22.9 Million and then layers on analyst forecasts and longer term extrapolations.

Analysts expect free cash flow to climb into the low hundreds of Millions over the next several years, with Simply Wall St extending those projections further out. By 2029, free cash flow is projected to reach roughly $260 Million, and then continue growing at gradually slowing rates into the 2030s. All of those future cash flows are discounted back to today to arrive at an estimated intrinsic value of about $37.74 per share.

With the stock currently trading around $29, the DCF suggests SolarEdge is approximately 21.8% undervalued, indicating the market price may reflect a relatively pessimistic outlook compared with these cash flow assumptions.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests SolarEdge Technologies is undervalued by 21.8%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 907 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

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