Backblaze’s latest narrative shift comes with a modest trim to its fair value estimate from $10.55 to about $10.11 per share, even as long term revenue growth expectations remain essentially unchanged near 10.69% and the discount rate nudges up only slightly from roughly 9.69% to 9.70% to reflect a touch more perceived risk. This subtle recalibration captures a market that still believes in the company’s growth runway but is balancing enthusiasm over stronger demand signals and pipeline visibility with more caution around valuation and execution. Read on to see how you can track these evolving assumptions and stay informed about future updates to the Backblaze story.
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🐂 Bullish Takeaways
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Oppenheimer reiterated its Outperform rating and nudged its price target up to $11 from $10. The firm signaled confidence that Backblaze can deliver solid quarterly results within the broader analytics, data, infrastructure, and security software group.
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Channel checks cited by Oppenheimer point to healthy fundamentals, with solid Q3 deal flow, Q4 pipeline generation, and normal competitive dynamics. These factors support the view that Backblaze’s growth momentum and execution are on track.
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The firm remains bullish longer term on the group. This indirectly supports Backblaze’s valuation as a potential beneficiary of sector wide demand, provided it continues to execute and maintain transparent guidance.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
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B. Riley’s Zach Cummins lowered his price target to $9 from $11 while maintaining a Buy rating. This reflects increased caution around upside potential even as the fundamental stance remains positive.
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The cut from $11 to $9 suggests growing concern that some upside may already be priced in. It also indicates that near term risks around execution or valuation may warrant a more conservative target, even for analysts who still recommend owning the stock.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!
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Backblaze integrated its B2 Cloud Storage with Shareio, enabling creators to securely store, control, and monetize digital content while benefiting from low cost storage and free egress for content delivery.
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The company completed a share repurchase of 142,069 shares, or about 0.25% of outstanding shares, for a total of $1.18 million under its previously announced buyback program.
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Backblaze issued fourth quarter 2025 revenue guidance of $37.3 million to $37.9 million, outlining management’s expectations for near term top line performance.
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The company narrowed its full year 2025 revenue outlook to a range of $145.4 million to $146.0 million, tightening but slightly lowering the top end of prior guidance.