MTN Group’s fair value estimate has inched up to about $176.89 from $172.50, even as expected revenue growth is nudged slightly lower and the discount rate holds steady at 16.73%. This subtle recalibration reflects how markets are increasingly rewarding clear execution and credible long term plans over short term headline numbers. Stay tuned to see how you can track these evolving valuation signals and follow the changing MTN Group narrative.
Analyst Price Targets don’t always capture the full story. Head over to our Company Report to find new ways to value MTN Group.
🐂 Bullish Takeaways
Among the more constructive voices, firms such as Truist, Stifel and Mizuho continue to rate Vail Resorts with Buy or Outperform stances, even as they trim price targets, signaling ongoing confidence in the long term earnings power that underpins valuation for MTN linked exposure.
Truist highlights that EBITDA was roughly in line with expectations helped by strong snowfall in Australia, while Stifel notes that recent results do not fundamentally alter the long run bull or bear debate, suggesting that analysts still reward consistent execution and clearer guidance on FY26 and FY27 earnings.
Mizuho, despite lowering its price target to $195, maintains an Outperform rating, framing the softer fiscal 2026 EBITDA outlook as underwhelming rather than thesis breaking, which helps anchor the upper band of fair value assumptions in current models.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
Jefferies flags leadership risk as a negative for MTN linked exposure, questioning whether Andre Maestrini is the right choice for a mature and challenging North American market, a concern that feeds into higher perceived execution risk and a tighter margin of safety around current valuations.
Barclays, BofA and Morgan Stanley all cut price targets, with Barclays moving to $145, BofA to $165 and Morgan Stanley to $146, citing disappointing pass sales trends, a below consensus initial FY26 outlook and a prolonged turnaround narrative, which together temper assumptions for growth momentum and multiple expansion.
Across these cautious notes, analysts stress that while turnaround plans show some potential, meaningful and sustainable growth may not emerge until FY27 at the earliest, reinforcing the idea that near term risks and execution milestones must be met before the market is willing to ascribe a richer valuation multiple to MTN related assets.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!
JSE:MTN Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
CEO Ralph Mupita has pushed back on renewed market speculation about a potential MTN takeover of Telkom SA, stressing that there are currently no active talks, no mandated advisers and no live transaction under consideration.
Mupita has reiterated that building a new fibre network in South Africa would be an uneconomic use of capital for MTN, arguing that the country already has sufficient fibre infrastructure in place.
MTN continues to see partnerships or acquisitions as the only viable ways to scale meaningfully in home and fixed internet, keeping strategic interest in fibre assets front and centre even as formal Telkom discussions remain off the table.
The company previously walked away from an estimated ZAR 30 bn bid for Telkom in 2022 after rival Rain made a competing merger approach, with MTN’s interest understood to have focused primarily on Telkom’s Openserve fibre business.
The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly to approximately $176.89 from $172.50, reflecting modest upside despite softer operating assumptions.
The Discount Rate is unchanged at 16.73%, indicating no revised view on MTN Group’s risk profile or cost of capital.
Revenue Growth has edged down marginally, with the medium term annual growth assumption reduced from about 13.02% to 12.96%.
The Net Profit Margin has fallen significantly, with the long run margin assumption reduced from roughly 19.63% to 16.69%.
The future P/E multiple has increased meaningfully from around 8.9x to 10.8x, suggesting a greater share of fair value now comes from anticipated multiple expansion.
Narratives are simple, story driven views that connect your own expectations for a company’s growth, margins and earnings to a financial forecast and a fair value. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors use Narratives to link MTN Group’s evolving story to the numbers, compare Fair Value to the current share price and decide when to buy or sell. As news, earnings and forecasts change, the Narrative automatically refreshes so your investment view stays current without extra effort.
Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on MTN Group to stay on top of:
How African connectivity and fintech adoption support MTN’s double digit revenue and earnings growth potential.
Whether disciplined CapEx, improving FX trends and stronger cash generation can unlock future multiple expansion.
How competition, regulation and macro volatility could derail the thesis and change MTN’s Fair Value versus its current price.
Read the full MTN Group Narrative and track every update in real time.
Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include MTN.jse.
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