Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) has seen its fair value estimate trimmed only marginally from Rp5,031.85 to Rp4,996.85, even as analyst sentiment has become more constructive on the back of planned liquidity support measures. The slight uptick in projected revenue growth to 20.14% and a nearly unchanged discount rate of 14.19% underscore how the narrative is shifting more on risk reward perception than on fundamentals. Read on to see how these subtle recalibrations can reshape expectations and how you can stay on top of future narrative shifts as they unfold.
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🐂 Bullish Takeaways
Goldman Sachs upgraded Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) to Buy from Neutral, signaling a more constructive view on the bank’s risk reward profile.
The firm set a price target of Rp5,180, implying modest upside from the latest fair value estimate and reflecting confidence that the bank can translate improved liquidity into sustainable growth.
Goldman Sachs argues the bank is well positioned to benefit from the government’s planned liquidity injection into deposits, which should support system wide funding stability and ease balance sheet pressures.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
Even with the upgrade, the price target suggests only incremental upside, indicating that some of the benefit from liquidity support may already be reflected in Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero)’s valuation and limiting near term rerating potential.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!
IDX:BBNI Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk has scheduled a Special or Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting for December 15, 2025, in Jakarta and electronically via the PT Kustodian Sentral Efek Indonesia platform, highlighting potential changes in corporate governance or capital structure.
The upcoming meeting is expected to focus investor attention on possible capital raising, dividend policy adjustments, or board level changes, factors that could influence the bank’s medium term strategy and risk profile.
Market participants are closely watching the agenda details and regulatory filings around the meeting, as any decisions on capital buffers or funding mix could affect the bank’s cost of capital and its ability to support loan growth.
The fair value estimate has edged down slightly from Rp 5,031.85 to Rp 4,996.85, reflecting marginally softer assumptions in the updated model.
The discount rate has decreased very slightly from 14.20% to 14.19%, indicating a nearly unchanged risk assessment for Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero).
Revenue growth has risen modestly from 20.08% to 20.14%, suggesting a slightly more optimistic outlook for top line expansion.
The net profit margin has eased marginally from 31.64% to 31.54%, pointing to a small anticipated compression in profitability.
The future P/E has declined slightly from 10.18x to 10.12x, implying a marginally lower valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.
Narratives are simple, story driven investment theses that connect the dots between what a company is doing, what its future revenue, earnings, and margins might look like, and what a reasonable fair value could be. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors use Narratives as an accessible way to link a company’s story to a financial forecast, compare fair value to the current price to decide when to buy or sell, and see those views update dynamically as new news or earnings arrive.
Read the full Narrative for Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) to see the thinking behind its latest fair value and price target here: BBNI Narrative on Simply Wall St.
Understand how digital adoption, SME expansion, and ESG lending could drive deposit growth, lower funding costs, and support structurally higher earnings.
See the detailed earnings and valuation pathway that underpins the analysts’ consensus price target versus today’s share price and implied future P/E.
Track the key risks, from margin pressure and rising OpEx to asset quality and regulatory dependence, and how they might change the risk reward balance.
Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include BBNI.
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