Wondering if USA Rare Earth is actually worth the hype at its current price, or if the story has already run ahead of the fundamentals? This breakdown is designed to give you a clear, valuation focused view.
USA Rare Earth has been anything but quiet lately, jumping 28.0% over the last week and climbing 39.2% year to date. This is even though the 30 day move is roughly flat at -0.8% and the 1 year gain sits at 49.9%.
Much of that momentum has been fueled by ongoing headlines around US efforts to secure domestic supplies of critical minerals and reduce dependence on overseas rare earth processing. As USA Rare Earth positions itself as part of that strategic supply chain, investors are starting to price in the potential upside and the risks that come with policy driven demand.
Right now, USA Rare Earth scores a 2/6 valuation check score. This means it screens as undervalued on 2 of our 6 metrics, and in the next sections we will unpack those traditional valuation approaches before finishing with a more holistic way to judge whether the current price really makes sense.
USA Rare Earth scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates what a business is worth today by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to their present value. For USA Rare Earth, this uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity framework.
The company is currently burning cash, with last twelve month free cash flow at around -$39.0 Million. Analyst forecasts and subsequent extrapolations see this negative cash flow deepening to roughly -$114.4 Million in 2026 before turning positive and climbing to about $438.5 Million by 2035. These later years rely on Simply Wall St extrapolations once analyst coverage runs out.
When all those projected cash flows are discounted back, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of about $40.05 per share. Compared with the current share price, this implies the stock is trading at roughly a 57.0% discount, suggesting the market is heavily discounting the long term cash flow recovery story.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests USA Rare Earth is undervalued by 57.0%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 907 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.
USAR Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025
Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for USA Rare Earth.
For asset heavy businesses in the metals and mining space, the price to book ratio is often a useful reality check because it compares what investors are paying in the market with the accounting value of the company’s net assets. In theory, faster growth and lower risk justify a higher multiple, while slower growth or higher uncertainty should pull a fair price to book closer to, or even below, the value of the underlying assets.
USA Rare Earth currently trades on a price to book ratio of around -37.72x, which is far away from both the Metals and Mining industry average of about 2.16x and a peer group average of roughly 8.64x. To cut through those blunt comparisons, Simply Wall St uses a proprietary Fair Ratio, which estimates the price to book multiple that would be reasonable for USA Rare Earth once you factor in its specific growth profile, risk, profitability, industry positioning and market cap. Because this Fair Ratio is tailored to the company rather than the broad sector, it offers a more nuanced benchmark than simple peer or industry averages when deciding whether the current market price makes sense.
Result: UNDERVALUED
NasdaqGM:USAR PB Ratio as at Dec 2025
PB ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1452 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to link your view of a company with the numbers behind it. A Narrative is your story about a business, expressed through clear assumptions about its future revenue, earnings and profit margins, which then flow into a forecast and an estimated fair value. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, used by millions of investors, Narratives make this process easy and accessible so you can see how a company’s story connects directly to its financial future. Once you have a Narrative, you can compare its Fair Value to the current share price to decide whether USA Rare Earth looks like a buy, a hold or a sell based on your own assumptions. Narratives also update dynamically as new information, like fresh earnings results or policy news on critical minerals, changes the outlook. For example, one USA Rare Earth Narrative might assume aggressive production ramp up and a high fair value, while another bakes in execution risks and a much lower fair value.
Do you think there’s more to the story for USA Rare Earth? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
NasdaqGM:USAR Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include USAR.
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