MSCI (MSCI) just rolled out its All Country Public + Private Equity Index, a daily benchmark that blends listed stocks with modelled private equity exposures to give institutions a cleaner, portfolio level view of total equity risk and return.
See our latest analysis for MSCI.
That backdrop of product innovation sits against a softer tape, with the latest $538.26 share price reflecting a roughly 10% year to date share price decline. Even so, the five year total shareholder return above 35% still points to a longer term structural winner whose momentum has cooled rather than broken.
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With the shares down double digits over 12 months but analysts still seeing more than 20% upside, is MSCI quietly drifting into undervalued territory, or is the market already discounting its next leg of growth?
Comparing the narrative fair value of $657.56 to MSCI’s last close at $538.26, the story leans toward meaningful upside if the assumptions hold.
Accelerated development and cross-selling of proprietary data, analytics, and private capital solutions (including recently launched products and business lines like private equity benchmarks and risk tools) will tap into new client bases and increase wallet share among institutional clients, driving durable multi-year compounded revenue growth.
Read the complete narrative.
Curious how steady double digit earnings growth, rising margins, and a premium future multiple can still point to upside from here? The narrative spells out the math behind that confidence.
Result: Fair Value of $657.56 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, softer retention in analytics and ESG, along with fee pressure in passive products, could slow recurring growth and challenge today’s premium valuation assumptions.
Find out about the key risks to this MSCI narrative.
While the narrative fair value suggests upside, the market is already paying 33.1 times earnings, far above MSCI’s own fair ratio of 16.6 times and the US capital markets average of 24.3 times. If sentiment cools, could that premium compress faster than earnings grow?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
If your view diverges or you would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can shape a personalized MSCI story in just minutes, Do it your way.