Battle for the La Liga crown
Bookmakers believe it will be a very close title race in La Liga. Real Madrid are expected to push Barcelona all the way this term, while they are virtually guaranteed a place in the top four.
Los Blancos are given an even-money chance of winning La Liga. While Atletico Madrid could also compete, Xabi Alonso’s team are expected to be the main challengers to the defending champions and slight favourites, Barcelona.
The odds suggest Real Madrid are expected to hit 82 points this term. That’s actually two fewer than their tally from last season under Carlo Ancelotti. However, the betting markets anticipate a slightly lower points total for the holders in La Liga 2025/26.
Having added Trent Alexander-Arnold, Dean Huijsen and Alvaro Carreras this summer, Madrid have fresh options across the defence. If Madrid’s star forwards Vinicius Junior and Kylian Mbappe hit top form under Alonso, pre-season projections of a closely contested title race could well come true.
| Market | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Winner | +100 | 50.00% |
| Top Four | -5000 | 98.00% |
Odds via bet365 correct at time of publication. May now differ.
Last season’s table position: 2nd
Next five fixtures difficulty
| Date | Opponent | Result last season | Difficulty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24-08-25 | Real Oviedo (A) | N/A | 2 |
| 30-08-25 | Mallorca (H) | 2-1 Win | 3 |
| 14-09-25 | Real Sociedad (A) | 0-2 Win | 4 |
| 21-09-25 | Espanyol (H) | 4-1 Win | 2 |
| 24-09-25 | Levante (A) | N/A | 2 |
Real Madrid have been handed a favourable start to the new La Liga season. With three winnable home games in their opening five matches, only the trip to Real Sociedad in September is likely to provide a major test.
They kicked off with a comfortable 1-0 win over Osasuna on matchday one. Their next fixture is a trip to newly promoted Real Oviedo. However, having only played one pre-season game following the Club World Cup, we may not see Alonso’s side hit top form until at least Matchday 3.
The Mallorca game appears to be a more appealing betting opportunity for a Madrid victory. The Balearic Islanders have lost on their last nine league trips to the Bernabeu.
Player focus
Mbappe scored more goals in his debut season for Los Blancos than anyone else in their entire 123-year history. While the balance didn’t always feel right across the forward line, the Frenchman’s goal threat was constant.
He edged out Viktor Gyökeres to claim Europe’s Golden Boot. Mbappe also scored in all four of his club’s (UEFA Super Cup, FIFA Intercontinental Cup, Supercopa de Espana & Copa del Rey) finals in 2024/25. He also found the net in five goals against Barcelona in four Clasicos.
While he clearly relishes the big stage, Mbappe inflicted plenty of damage against the weaker teams too. Despite competition from Robert Lewandowski in a dominant Barca side, it was Mbappe who won the Pichichi by a comfortable margin.
The Barca forward is soon to turn 37 and may not start as many games this season, with Ferran Torres and Marcus Rashford providing competition. That should clear the path for Mbappe to finish as La Liga’s top goalscorer again.
- Best bet: Kylian Mbappe to be La Liga’s top goalscorer @ -150 with bet365
Featured stats
- No other player has registered as many goals in La Liga as Mbappe (31) did last year since Lionel Messi left the division. The 4.71 shots per 90 minutes in La Liga was surpassed only by Ousmane Dembele (4.99) in Europe’s top five leagues. Focusing on the underlying data, only Robert Lewandowski (27.1xG), who recorded four goals fewer than Mbappe, generated a more significant goal total than Mbappe’s 25.9xG across La Liga, Premier League, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1.
- Both Teams To Score – Yes won in 21 of Real Madrid’s 38 league games last season, a strike rate of 55%. Only nine other teams boasted more frequent BTTS-Yes winners in La Liga. That’s an increase from the 45% from 2023/24. Only once in the previous six seasons has Los Blancos’ BTTS – Yes percentage been that high.
Value Outright
Only six players have reached double figures for assists in La Liga in the past three seasons. Last term, only Lamine Yamal created 10 or more goals, leaving few serious contenders for the young Barca star.
One clear contender is Alexander-Arnold. At Liverpool, the right-back registered 12 or more Premier League assists on three occasions, most recently in the 2021/22 campaign.
While players like Darwin Nunez have limited his assist tallies in recent years due to poor finishing, that shouldn’t be an issue in Madrid. The lethal Mbappe will be the primary target for many of his crosses into the danger area. Meanwhile, England teammate Jude Bellingham should also relish the chance to get into the box and connect with Alexander-Arnold’s deliveries.
With an implied probability of less than 8%, the former Reds star offers strong value to finish with the most assists in La Liga 2025/26.
Real Madrid outright best bet:Trent Alexander-Arnold Most Assists @ +1200 with bet365.
Profitability
1X2 Market
| Season | Win P/L | Draw P/L | Loss P/L | Win ROI | Draw ROI | Loss ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | -1.05 | -11.86 | -4.88 | -2.8% | -31.2% | -12.8% |
| Home | 1.15 | -15.26 | -5.06 | 6.1% | -80.3% | -26.6% |
| Away | -2.21 | 3.40 | 0.18 | -11.6% | 17.9% | 1.0% |
| 2023/2024 | 7.6 | 0.85 | -35.19 | 20.0% | 2.2% | -92.6% |
| Home | 2.29 | -0.06 | -19.00 | 12.1% | -0.3% | -100.0% |
| Away | 5.31 | 0.91 | -16.19 | 27.9% | 4.8% | -85.2% |
| 2022/2023 | -1.12 | -11.03 | -6.21 | -2.9% | -29.0% | -16.3% |
| Home | -1.21 | 4.00 | -12.83 | -6.4% | 21.1% | -67.5% |
| Away | 0.09 | -15.03 | 6.62 | 0.5% | -79.1% | 34.8% |
Asian Handicap Market
| Season | AH Win P/L | AH Loss P/L | AH Win ROI | AH Loss ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | -2.48 | -0.10 | -6.5% | -0.3% |
| Home | -0.51 | -0.83 | -2.7% | -4.4% |
| Away | -1.98 | 0.73 | -10.4% | 3.8% |
| 2023/2024 | 4.63 | -6.73 | 12.2% | -17.7% |
| Home | 1.28 | -2.49 | 6.7% | -13.1% |
| Away | 3.35 | -4.24 | 17.6% | -22.3% |
| 2022/2023 | -3.55 | 0.52 | -9.3% | 1.4% |
| Home | -3.41 | 1.64 | -17.9% | 8.6% |
| Away | -0.14 | -1.12 | -0.7% | -5.9% |
Calculations are based on a single unit basis. Odds data taken from closing prices of bet365 and was correct at time of collection.
Real Madrid won 84.2% of their home league games last season, with only Barcelona, Atleti and Valencia avoiding defeat at the Bernabeu. For the second year in a row, backing Los Blancos to win their home fixtures proved profitable.
However, their winning margins were often low. That meant there was no value to be found in backing Madrid home or away in the Asian Handicap markets in 2024/25. That wasn’t the case the previous season, when a healthy 12.2% overall return was possible.
If Alonso can unleash the immense attacking potential that exists in this squad, we could see a return to those times. However, under Ancelotti, the team often misfired on the road. Backing Real to draw their away league games in both the 2023/24 and 2024/25 seasons proved profitable.
Goals market
| Season | % of Over 2.5 | % of BTTS – Yes | % of scored the first goal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | 58% | 55% | 68% |
| 2023/2024 | 55% | 45% | 68% |
| 2022/2023 | 55% | 58% | 63% |
Serious early-season injuries to Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao contributed to Real Madrid’s defensive problems last term. They were not replaced in January, and Ancelotti’s team struggled to keep clean sheets, with BTTS – Yes landing in 55% of their league games.
Early on in the campaign, Real frequently made sluggish starts, before finally turning it on after the interval against tiring defences. However, that trend reversed as the year went on, with Los Merengues netting the opening goal in 68% of their La Liga fixtures by the end of 2024/25.
The 2023/24 season served up identical figures. If that trend continues this term, there would be value in backing Madrid to score first if the odds are 1.48 or higher.
There has also been strong consistency in terms of the total number of goals in their matches. Backing over 2.5 goals has been a winning bet in between 55% and 58% of their fixtures in each of the last three years. Based on 2024/25 data, there’d be value in the Over 2.5 Goals market if the odds are 1.73 or higher.
Team xG data
| Season | Goals scored | xG | Goals conceded | xGA | GD | xG difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | 78 | 75.3xG | 38 | 42.8xGA | +40 | +32.5 |
| 2023/2024 | 87 | 68.8xG | 26 | 35.4xGA | +61 | +33.4 |
| 2022/2023 | 75 | 75.5xG | 36 | 38.9xGA | +39 | +36.6 |
Source: FbREF