Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
“Sentimental Value”
Neon
Oscars Best Supporting Actor Commentary (Updated Aug. 22, 2025): This year’s supporting actor race could offer a healthy mix of big-name stars familiar to the general public and beloved character actors long overdue for Oscar recognition.
Near the top of the list is Adam Sandler’s much-anticipated performance in Noah Baumbach’s Hollywood dramedy “Jay Kelly,” set to release on Netflix. While widely known for his comedic work, Sandler has flirted with Oscar attention over the past two decades with acclaimed turns in Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Punch-Drunk Love,” the Safdie brothers’ “Uncut Gems” and, more recently, Jeremiah Zagar’s “Hustle,” which earned him a SAG nomination. In “Jay Kelly,” he plays a seasoned Hollywood manager to a fictional movie star, portrayed by George Clooney. Early buzz suggests Sandler may be headed for a major awards run, perhaps echoing Robert Downey Jr.’s trajectory with “Oppenheimer” in 2023. The film premieres at Venice, with further festival stops expected as awards season unfolds.
Standing in Sandler’s way is the early favorite: Swedish character actor Stellan Skarsgård, a 74-year-old veteran known for his multiple collaborations with Lars von Trier. Skarsgård earned critical praise out of Cannes for his performance in Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value,” another film exploring the themes of filmmaking and personal legacy.
Beyond those two names, there’s growing anticipation around Jacob Elordi’s transformative turn as the monster in Guillermo del Toro’s epic adaptation of “Frankenstein.”
Oscar nominee Paul Mescal also enters the conversation with a potentially category-shifting performance as William Shakespeare in Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet.” If the adaptation follows the novel closely, he may be better positioned in supporting, especially with another high-profile role in Oliver Hermanus’ “The History of Sound,” which premiered at Cannes.
There’s always room for breakout stars and newcomers, such as Aidan Delbis, a neurodivergent actor said to hold his own opposite Jesse Plemons and Emma Stone in Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia.” Leo Woodall, appearing in two major projects this year, could also make waves — particularly with his role in James Vanderbilt’s Holocaust drama “Nuremberg.”
When it comes to the horror genre, Academy support remains cautious, though recent exceptions like “The Substance” show signs of change. Still, Ryan Coogler’s invigorating film “Sinners” may defy expectations, with as many as two or three actors seeking recognition — including veteran Delroy Lindo, Jack O’Connell, and musical breakout Miles Caton — all worthy of serious consideration.
This could also be the year long-overlooked actors finally get their due. That narrative may help Idris Elba, said to be a standout in Kathryn Bigelow’s “A House of Dynamite,” as well as Michael Stuhlbarg, reportedly delivering more than his usual one-scene impact in Luca Guadagnino’s “After the Hunt.” (Remember “Call Me by Your Name” and “Bones and All?”)
Of course, the landscape will shift dramatically once Venice and Telluride kick off next week. Until then, all we can do is map out an ever-evolving field — because in Oscar season, everything can change overnight.
NOTE: All titles, release dates, studios and listed category classifications are subject to change.
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