Wondering if Expedia Group is still a smart buy after its run up, or if the easy money has already been made? Let us unpack whether the current share price lines up with the underlying value.
Expedia has quietly kept climbing, with the stock up 2.1% over the last week, 2.4% over the past month, and 42.7% year to date, adding to a 40.6% gain over 1 year and 178.8% over 3 years.
Recent headlines have focused on the travel recovery gaining momentum and Expedia sharpening its focus on core platforms and loyalty programs, which has helped rebuild investor confidence in the business model. At the same time, analysts have been highlighting the long term shift to online and app based bookings and framing Expedia as a key beneficiary of that structural trend.
Right now, Expedia Group scores 5/6 on our valuation checks, suggesting it looks undervalued on most of the metrics we track but not all. Next we will walk through those different valuation approaches, and then return at the end with a broader way to think about what the stock may be worth.
Expedia Group delivered 40.6% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Hospitality industry.
A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back to today in $ terms.
For Expedia Group, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The company generated roughly $2.93 billion in free cash flow over the last twelve months, and analysts expect this to grow steadily as the travel platform scales. Based on analyst inputs and extrapolated trends, free cash flow is projected to reach around $4.87 billion by 2035, with intermediate milestones such as about $3.34 billion in 2028 and $3.68 billion in 2029.
When all these future cash flows are discounted back to today, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of about $520.55 per share. This implies the stock is trading at roughly a 49.2% discount to its estimated fair value, based on these model assumptions.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Expedia Group is undervalued by 49.2%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 901 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.
EXPE Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025
Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Expedia Group.
For a profitable business like Expedia Group, the price to earnings ratio is a practical way to gauge whether investors are paying a reasonable price for each dollar of current profits. In general, companies with faster, more reliable earnings growth and lower risk tend to justify higher PE ratios, while slower growth or higher uncertainty usually calls for a lower multiple.
Expedia currently trades on a PE of about 23.3x. That is roughly in line with the broader Hospitality industry average of around 23.4x, but below the peer group average of about 27.9x. This suggests the market is a bit more cautious on Expedia than on some comparable names. To refine this further, Simply Wall St calculates a proprietary Fair Ratio of 29.6x for Expedia, which reflects its specific mix of earnings growth prospects, profitability, industry positioning, market cap and risk profile.
This Fair Ratio framework is more tailored than a simple peer or industry comparison, because it adjusts for Expedia’s own fundamentals rather than assuming all companies deserve the same multiple. Comparing Expedia’s current 23.3x PE to the 29.6x Fair Ratio points to the shares trading below what its fundamentals would typically warrant.
Result: UNDERVALUED
NasdaqGS:EXPE PE Ratio as at Dec 2025
PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1454 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of Expedia Group’s business with a financial forecast and a fair value estimate. A Narrative is your story behind the numbers, where you spell out what you believe about Expedia’s future revenue, earnings and margins, and the platform turns that view into a clear forecast and implied fair value. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors can create and compare these Narratives, making it an easy, accessible tool for deciding whether to buy or sell by comparing each Narrative’s Fair Value to today’s Price. Narratives are updated dynamically as new information, like earnings or AI related news, comes in, so your story can evolve with the facts. For example, one Expedia Narrative might assume strong AI driven efficiency, rising margins and a fair value closer to the upper analyst target of about $290. In contrast, a more cautious Narrative might focus on competitive and platform risks and arrive nearer the lower target of around $168.
Do you think there’s more to the story for Expedia Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
NasdaqGS:EXPE 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include EXPE.
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