Summer Box Office Won’t Reach $4 Billion

Heading into the summer, Hollywood was bullish that several promising blockbusters would be able to propel ticket sales above $4 billion for only the second time since the pandemic. But as the season winds to a close, it’s clear the domestic box office will fall short of that lofty benchmark.

Overall revenues from May 1 to Aug. 24 have reached $3.53 billion, according to Comscore. Popcorn season is typically the most profitable period for the movie business, with revenues regularly accounting for around 40% of the annual box office. But domestic ticket sales have only surpassed the $4 billion figure once since COVID lockdowns, during the glory days of “Barbenheimer” in 2023.

Disney’s “Lilo & Stitch” is the highest-grossing film of the summer with $421 million in North America and $1.03 billion globally. It’s the only 2025 release from a Hollywood studio to cross $1 billion. Other bright spots were “Jurassic World Rebirth” with $844 million, “How to Train Your Dragon” with $626 million, “Superman” with $604 million, “F1: The Movie” with $603 million, plus A24’s indie hit “Materialists” with $85 million and Zach Cregger’s sleeper hit “Weapons” with $199 million to date.

But those box office wins weren’t enough to offset a number underperforming tentpoles, like “Thunderbolts*” ($382 million) and “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” ($471 million), neither of which lived up to the heights of prior Marvel movies, as well as Pixar’s “Elio” ($150 million), “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” ($597 million) and “M3GAN 2.0” ($39 million). In the case of the latest “Mission: Impossible,” the film’s outsized $400 million budget makes it a major money loser despite its high gross. Compounding those disappointments, the season lacked a runaway sensation on the size and scale of 2024’s “Inside Out 2” ($1.69 billion), 2023’s “Barbie” ($1.44 billion) or 2022’s “Top Gun: Maverick” ($1.49 billion).

“On paper, 2025 boasted one of the strongest slates of summer movies ever,” said senior Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian. “What was not considered was that the summer movie ecosystem is very fragile; there is no margin for error. August this year is when things really slowed down. And with no July holdover smash like last year’s ‘Deadpool & Wolverine,’ the momentum was hurt in the home stretch of the season.”

This year’s revenues did manage to improve upon last summer’s $3.52 billion haul, led by “Inside Out 2” and “Deadpool and Wolverine,” as well as 2022’s tally of $3.41 billion, anchored by “Top Gun: Maverick.” But ticket sales have yet to ever return to pre-pandemic highs, like 2019’s $4.38 billion bounty, according to Comscore.

“With only one film hitting $1 billion worldwide, it’s clear Hollywood still needs some tinkering in terms of how to reengage audiences on a global level,” says Jeff Bock, a box office analyst with Exhibitor Relations. “Start with a bang, end with a bang—that’s how summer cinema should reverberate with audiences. That didn’t happen this summer, and the results speak for themselves.”

Overall fortunes might take a while to rebound through the rest of the year. That’s because the fall movie slate is missing a sure-fire success. However, Hollywood is relying on strength in numbers with a slew of upcoming September releases such as “The Conjuring: Last Rites,” “Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale,” sports thriller “Him” and Paul Thomas Anderson and Leonardo DiCaprio’s big-budgeted “One Battle After Another.” Then there’s the sci-fi sequel “Tron: Ares” and video game adaptation “Mortak Kombat II” in October. But barring a sleeper hit, business isn’t expected to start booming again until “Wicked: For Good” and “Zootopia 2” open around Thanksgiving.

“August, September and October are the slowest months of the moviegoing year,” says David A. Gross who runs the movie consultancy firm Franchise Entertainment Research. “2025’s year-to-date box office should continue to gain on 2024, but it will be at a sluggish pace.”

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