NBA TV analyzes Denver’s roster after it added Jonas Valančiūnas in a trade with Sacramento.
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The Denver Nuggets have ranked no lower than seventh offensively over the last nine seasons, thanks largely to having a player (Nikola Jokić) who’s both the most efficient high-volume scorer in NBA history* and one of the best passers we’ve ever seen.
* Among the 84 players who’ve averaged 20 points or more in at least 100 career games, Jokić has the highest true shooting percentage (63.8%).
Last season was actually the Nuggets’ best offensive season in that stretch, with Denver scoring 5.2 more points per 100 possessions than the league average. Jokić averaged a career-high 29.6 points and a career-high 10.2 assists, while also registering his second-best true shooting percentage (66.3%) in his 10 seasons in the league.
But the other end of the floor was an issue. Denver’s defense fell off, ranking 21st and allowing 1.4 more points per 100 possessions than the league average, its worst mark in the last seven years.
Nuggets’ record and efficiency, last five seasons
| Season | W | L | OffRtg | Rank | DefRtg | Rank | NetRtg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | 47 | 25 | 116.3 | 6 | 111.5 | 11 | +4.9 | 6 |
| 2021-22 | 48 | 34 | 113.8 | 6 | 111.5 | 15 | +2.3 | 11 |
| 2022-23 | 53 | 29 | 116.8 | 5 | 113.5 | 15 | +3.3 | 6 |
| 2023-24 | 57 | 25 | 117.8 | 5 | 112.3 | 8 | +5.3 | 4 |
| 2024-25 | 50 | 32 | 118.9 | 4 | 115.1 | 21 | +3.9 | 9 |
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions
You don’t want to be in the bottom 10. Over the last 22 years, only three teams have reached the Finals (and all three lost in the Finals) after ranking in the bottom 10 on either end of the floor.
1. Career highs on offense, a step back on defense
Jokić has led the league in on-off differential in each of the last four seasons, with the Nuggets being an amazing 20 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor than they’ve been with him off it during that span. But the defensive drop-off was mostly about the three-time Kia MVP’s minutes on the floor, in which the Nuggets allowed 4.5 more points per 100 possessions in 2024-25 than they did in ’23-24.
Nuggets DefRtg, Jokić on/off floor
| Season | On floor | Off floor |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 110.6 | 112.8 |
| 2024-25 | 115.1 | 113.4 |
| Diff. | 4.5 | 0.6 |
One issue is that opponents shot 70% at the rim when Jokić was on the court, which is his worst rim protection mark in his career. That was a worse rim-protection mark than that of Karl-Anthony Towns last season.
He’s not the quickest nor the bounciest help defender, so if Jokić doesn’t have a good angle on an opposing driver, he’s not a great deterrent.
2. Pick-and-roll defense ain’t what it used to be
The Nuggets had further issues when Jokić was at the point of attack. According to Second Spectrum tracking, Denver allowed 1.02 points per chance when he was the screener’s defender in a pick-and-roll last season. That mark ranked 68th among 78 players who defended at least 500 screens and was up from 0.93 points per chance (13th of 90) in 2023-24.
That’s a huge drop-off when it comes to defending the most important action in basketball. Jokić was the screener’s defender on 45.8 ball-screens per 100 possessions, the fourth-highest rate in the league. So how he defends the pick-and-roll, as well as how the Nuggets defend behind him, is critical to their success.
First, he has to be better at containing the ball …
Jokić’s willingness to commit to stopping a drive depends partially on his trusting his teammates to rotate to his man. Since he prefers to be up at the level of the screen on pick-and-rolls (rather than in “drop” coverage), the Nuggets’ weak-side defenders have a more important job than they would on most other teams.
Protecting the paint against a rolling big man when your own center is out on the perimeter is not easy, and the Nuggets just weren’t as good at it last season as they were in the past …
According to Synergy tracking, the Nuggets ranked last in roll-man efficiency (1.20 points per possession) last season, their third straight year in the bottom five.
3. Hoping for better help from new additions
The Nuggets have made some offseason changes, replacing Michael Porter Jr. and Russell Westbrook (second and fifth on the team, respectively, in total minutes last season) with Cam Johnson and Bruce Brown. They also acquired Jonas Valančiūnas to back up Jokić.
The Denver defense was at its worst (116.2 points allowed per 100 possessions) with Westbrook on the floor last season. Their starting lineup allowed 114.4 per 100 in its 426 minutes, but allowed just 105.6 per 100 in 123 minutes with the other four starters on the floor without Porter.
Brown and Johnson should be defensive upgrades. According to Second Spectrum, no player was the “tagger” on more screens last season than Porter. As Brown takes over that job, Johnson’s ability to help in the paint and recover out to his man will be worth watching …
Brown will be on the ball more often, so his screen navigation will be critical regarding keeping the Nuggets out of rotation …
Despite the defensive drop-off in the regular season, the Nuggets took the eventual champion Oklahoma City Thunder to seven games in the Western Conference semifinals. Though the Thunder could be even better this season, Jokić gives Denver a huge matchup advantage against every team in the league.
But the best player in the world can still be better, especially when it comes to defending the pick-and-roll. And if his teammates are better behind him, the Nuggets should finish higher in the Western Conference and be a tougher out in the postseason.
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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