Russia prides itself on being an energy superpower, but some of its citizens are suddenly struggling to fill their fuel tanks after weeks of Ukrainian drone strikes crippled refining capacity across the country.
Petrol stations in several regions have run dry while prices have surged to record highs and motorists queue for hours.
Over the summer, Kyiv has stepped up its drone campaign against Russia’s energy infrastructure, a strategy designed to put pressure on Moscow and to signal that Ukraine still holds leverage in the peace talks led by the US president, Donald Trump.
Fuel shortages are being felt most acutely in remote regions, including the far east, southern Russia and the annexed Crimean peninsula, where motorists have been forced to switch to more expensive grades because of shortages of regular A-95 petrol.
Analysts estimate that Ukraine’s recent strikes on Russian oil refineries have disrupted at least 17% of all of Russia’s refining capacity, an equivalent of 1.1m barrels a day.
Between 2 and 24 August, Ukraine carried out at least a dozen strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, according to media reports, with the majority hitting facilities along the Ryazan–Volgograd corridor in the country’s south-west.
The latest attack came on Wednesday, when Ukrainian media reported that a powerful explosion struck the Ryazan–Moscow oil pipeline, one of the main arteries supplying fuel to the capital.
“This is not the first fuel crisis; it has happened several times before the war,” said Boris Aronstein, an independent oil and gas analyst. But, Aronstein said, Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries and storage facilities had made this the most severe crisis in recent years.
“The attacks are massive, coordinated, and repeated; they come in waves, and the refineries simply do not have time to repair the damage caused by the previous attack before the next one occurs,” Aronstein added.
Wholesale prices for A-95 – Russia’s most widely used petrol – hit record highs last week, climbing to about 82,300 roubles (£760) a tonne, almost 54% higher than in January.
At first glance, fuel shortages inside Russia jar with its status as one of the world’s top energy exporters, shipping crude to markets such as China and India.
Trump this week imposed sweeping tariffs on US imports from India, citing Delhi’s reliance on discounted Russian oil.
But crude oil has to be processed into petrol and diesel, and much of Russia’s refining system is geared toward export products.
Analysts say one of the industry’s main weaknesses is the lack of any real buffer in domestic petrol production. Output only just covers domestic demand, leaving the system highly vulnerable to disruption.
And while drone strikes usually disable only part of a refinery’s capacity, sanctions have cut off Russia from western technology, making repairs slower and more complicated.
Even before the most recent attacks, Moscow had moved to tighten its gasoline export ban in July to cope with a surge in domestic demand.
Russian social media has been flooded with clips of frustrated motorists complaining about shortages and soaring prices.
“We’ve been waiting for hours, and no one knows if we’ll even get our cars filled,” said one man as he drove past a snaking queue in the far-eastern city of Dalnegorsk.
The Motorist’s Den, a popular Russian car channel on Telegram, quipped that “it feels like petrol will soon be poured into champagne glasses rather than fuel tanks”.
Another widely shared post joked: “Filling up now is almost like a trip to a boutique: you set out for a litre, and return with an empty wallet and the philosophical thought that maybe walking isn’t so bad after all.”
The current crisis has been sharpened by timing: August is traditionally the toughest month for Russia’s fuel market, when the harvest season pushes up demand, refineries undergo scheduled maintenance and exporters chase higher seasonal prices abroad.
What is usually a predictable squeeze has this year tipped into a full-blown shortage after Ukrainian drones knocked out key facilities.
Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, has been among the hardest hit. The peninsula, which usually hosts a flood of Russian holidaymakers in the summer, has had its airports shut because of the drone threat, forcing visitors on to roads and piling further pressure on already scarce supplies. Officials have urged calm.
The Kremlin-appointed head of Crimea asked residents “to understand the restrictions on 95-octane petrol”, warning that the situation could drag on for another month. “All possible measures to stabilise prices are now being taken both by the federal government and by us,” he said.
While the shortages are disruptive and politically awkward for the Kremlin, analysts caution they are unlikely for now to derail Russia’s war effort or heavy industry.
Much of the country’s industrial fleet and military equipment runs on diesel rather than petrol, and Russia still has a surplus of it.
“There is still a long way to go before the transport, agriculture and industrial sectors – or, most importantly, the army – experience any significant fuel shortages,” said Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, who previously worked at the Russian oil major Gazprom.
Still, with Ukraine showing no sign of slowing its drone campaign, economists say that the fuel squeeze could drag on well into the winter.
If the worst comes to the worst, Vakulenko said, authorities could be forced to resort to gasoline rationing.