(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders drove stocks higher ahead of results from Nvidia Corp. — the last of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps to report. Short-dated Treasuries climbed. The dollar erased gains.
With earnings from the world’s most valuable company coming shortly, both the S&P 500 and Nvidia bounced from session lows. In addition to a take on artificial-intelligence spending, the numbers could have implications for the broader market due to the firm’s massive influence on major indexes.
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With a $4.4 trillion market capitalization, Nvidia has an 8.1% weighting in the S&P 500. Options traders are pricing in a move of about 6% in either direction for its shares the day after results, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“Saying this is the most-important stock in the world is an understatement,” noted Jay Woods at Freedom Capital Markets. “The bar keeps getting higher and the chipmaker keeps exceeding it. The growth projections continue to expand exponentially and there’s been no slowdown in sight.”
Nvidia’s stock has added roughly $2 trillion in market value since early April to trade near a record on optimism around the AI boom.
“Valuations are elevated heading into earnings,” said Clark Bellin at Bellwether Wealth. “Now that the stock market has been all but assured of a September rate cut, the next hurdle for markets to climb is Nvidia’s earnings.”
To Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report, a miss could spark meaningful volatility while a positive surprise would likely see the major indexes make a run at all-time highs.
Short-dated Treasuries continued to outperform amid bets on Federal Reserve policy easing. The 30-year yield was flat, following the recent announcement by President Donald Trump that he was firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook amid allegations of mortgage fraud.
His top economic adviser Kevin Hassett said Cook should go on leave while her status on the board is being litigated.
As Nvidia gets ready to report its results, analysts estimate that the biggest buyers of AI hardware are still investing heavily in new gear.
That means demand for the company’s chips and systems should remain strong — with sales set to grow at a pace of more than 50% this year.
“We’re expecting really solid numbers,” said John Belton at Gabelli Funds. “There’s a couple different dynamics under the hood, but I think this remains a supply-constrained growth story. It’s pretty amazing.”
Belton notes that Nvidia’s revenue is basically a function of how fast the supply chain can crank out product.
“I think the demand environment remains very strong so that’s not the issue,” he said. “The question is how fast the supply chain is able to accommodate product.”
Traders are hoping it can soothe fears about AI spending and effectively confirm that the stock market’s latest rally isn’t just a technology bubble.
Its megacap customers reported mostly solid results earlier in the earnings season, including pledges to increase the billions of dollars they’ve been pouring into capital expenditures. That’s encouraging for the chipmaker’s earnings and outlook.
“Without taking any single name views, we expect the results to be another key driver for tech sentiment ahead,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Second-quarter earnings for big tech have been robust. The outlook for large-cap tech remains compelling.”
While the tech-heavy Nasdaq has soared from its April lows, Haefele noted that momentum for the trade has slowed over the past two weeks.
To Thomas Lee at Fundstrat Global Advisors, when it comes to Nvidia, it might reflect investor apprehension into results.
“Thus, we think odds favor a rally post-quarterly results,” he noted. “NVDA is a stock that has shown every dip has proven to be profitable. So we would recommend buying any dip.”
Traders are loading up on September puts and calls tied to Nvidia by the most in three months.
Over the next month, only the highly anticipated Sept. 17 Fed policy meeting is expected to have a bigger trading impact than Nvidia on Thursday, and only barely, going by swings implied on derivatives markets, according to Piper Sandler & Co.
Dimming the excitement is confusion over how much business Nvidia will be able to do in China.
The US government has restricted the country’s access to Nvidia products due to national security concerns. And though the Trump administration offered a recent reprieve on export curbs, China has urged local customers to find other suppliers.
Jensen Huang
Therefore, analysts and investors are eagerly awaiting Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang’s remarks on China. And that’s especially relevant now that Beijing is reportedly urging local companies to avoid using Nvidia’s less-advanced H20 processors.
“There’s a bit of a question mark about what they will be assuming for China in the forward looking outlook,” said Belton at Gabelli. “I don’t think they will include China in the forward outlook because that’s what other semiconductor peers, like AMD, have done.”
A conservative approach would be the “fair thing to do”, noted Belton, given there are still uncertainties around when they are going to get some of these export license for the new China-compliant products.
“Outside of the ongoing H20 drama, NVDA has a strong track record of beating expectations,” said Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial. “Over the last five years, NVDA has only missed on earnings in one quarter.”
Corporate Highlights:
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. said it’s getting rid of a new logo that had sparked controversy and prompted a slump in its share price. On the back of the American Eagle Outfitters Inc. Sydney Sweeney buzz, the company has nabbed Travis Kelce as its newest face. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. raised its full-year sales guidance following a stronger-than-expected quarter at the teen-focused Hollister brand. Kohl’s Corp. offered a more optimistic full-year sales outlook, the latest indication that consumer spending hasn’t yet run out of steam. Peanut butter and jelly maker JM Smucker Co. reported that first-quarter net sales were weighed down by decreased sales of coffee, dog snacks, sweet baked goods and fruit spreads. Williams-Sonoma Inc. raised its full-year sales growth target as a strong second-quarter showing across all brands kept concerns of increased tariffs on imported furniture at bay. PayPal Holdings Inc. said a recent service disruption was to blame for irregularities experienced by several German banks. Boeing Co. has accelerated 737 Max deliveries to Ryanair Holdings Plc, the Irish airline’s chief executive officer said, and has expressed confidence that it will be able to raise production rates on the top-selling jetliner by October. Elliott Investment Management has built an active stake in Los Angeles-based real estate investment trust Rexford Industrial Realty Inc., according to people familiar with the matter. Royal Bank of Canada topped estimates on strong performance across its biggest businesses and as the firm set aside less money than expected to cover possible loan losses, a rebound from notable misses on credit earlier this year. Cambricon Technologies Corp. swung to a record profit in the first half, reflecting a wave of demand for Chinese chips after Beijing encouraged the use of homegrown technology in a post-DeepSeek AI boom. Japan’s Sompo Holdings Inc. struck a deal to buy Aspen Insurance Holdings Ltd. for about $3.5 billion, building out its foothold in the property-casualty insurance market. Meituan warned of major losses this quarter while waging a price-based battle with Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and JD.com Inc., the most striking sign yet that its internet rivals are threatening its longstanding dominance of a lucrative home market. China’s Cnooc Ltd. saw profits slump in the first half of the year as oil prices tumbled amid tariff volatility and muted demand in its domestic market. Nikon Corp. soared after Bloomberg reported that EssilorLuxottica SA, the maker of Ray-Ban sunglasses, is exploring a potential deal to increase its stake in the Japanese optical equipment manufacturer. What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Nvidia has delivered on Wall Street’s high projections for much of the past two years, yet that hasn’t always resulted in a positive share reaction. In fact, the average move after the past four earnings announcements is -2.8%. With so much baked into its valuation, the whisper numbers are often higher and the company’s ability to surprise diminishes.”
– Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.
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Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 2:35 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4% The MSCI World Index rose 0.2% Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.1% The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.6% Nvidia rose 0.1% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was little changed at $1.1632 The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.3498 The Japanese yen was little changed at 147.43 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.9% to $112,372.54 Ether rose 0.7% to $4,619.54 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.24% Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.70% Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.74% The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 3.62% The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.91% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.5% to $64.20 a barrel Spot gold was little changed ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.