Export growth likely slowed in August, with U.S.-bound shipments declining due to Trump’s higher tariffs. The median forecast in a Wall Street Journal poll of 11 economists is for a 3.7% on-year rise in exports, compared with a revised 5.8% increase for July. The poll’s forecast is for a 0.6% on-year drop in imports in August, likely resulting in a monthly trade surplus of $6 billion.
Brisk semiconductor shipments likely sustained export growth, but momentum in overall export growth is gradually weakening on tougher U.S. tariffs that weigh on global demand, Hana Securities economist Chun Kyu-yeon said.
The median forecast from a separate WSJ poll of nine analysts expects a 1.9% on-year rise in the benchmark consumer-price index, after a 2.1% increase in July.
The CPI might have edged up 0.2% on month in August, the same pace as the prior month, the poll showed.
Lower crude prices–as well as a temporary discount to mobile phone service charges at the country’s largest wireless carrier after a cybersecurity breach–likely offset higher agricultural-product prices, the analysts polled said.
Headline inflation is expected to hover around the central bank’s 2% target until the end of 2025, Meritz Securities chief economist Seunghoon Stephen Lee said.
Thailand
Thailand is due to release its inflation data for August, which will show if consumer prices remain in deflation. Headline inflation likely stayed negative last month due to favorable supply conditions and weak demand pressures, ANZ said.
Philippines
The Philippines is scheduled to release its August inflation data on Friday, and will be closely watched to see if price growth fell within the policymakers' target range. A smaller decline in retail fuel prices likely led to a slightly higher CPI inflation reading last month, Barclays said.
Taiwan
Taiwan is slated to release August consumer prices data, which is expected to have remained subdued after a reading of 1.54% in July and 1.37% in June. Economists' estimates range from 1.4% to 1.6%.
Food inflation likely eased, while fuel prices could edge higher with CPC Corp, Taiwan's state-owned oil company raising domestic fuel prices, ANZ said in a note.
Despite the moderate inflation pressure, ING economists still expect Taiwan's central bank to keep rates on hold at the September meeting.
Any references to days are in local times.
Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Jihye Lee at jihye.lee@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 31, 2025 17:14 ET (21:14 GMT)
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