(Corrects wording in headline.)
By Bharath Rajeswaran and Vivek Kumar M
MUMBAI (Reuters) -India’s world-beating economic growth is failing to translate into gains for equity markets as weakening pricing power and U.S. tariffs weigh on corporate earnings, turning foreign investors away.
Gross domestic product (GDP) in India grew at a faster-than-expected 7.8% in the April-June quarter in real terms. However, nominal growth, which represents output at current market prices, fell to 8.8% from 10.8% in the previous three months, indicating a drop in inflation.
This trend was also seen in corporate earnings, with revenue growth of the top 3,000 listed Indian companies slipping to a seven-quarter low of 3.4% on-year, down from 5.1% in the previous three months and 6.8% a year ago, according to Mumbai-headquartered ICICI Bank Global Market Research.
“The core corporate earnings outlook is weak and for the next few quarters at least we remain underweight,” said Sat Dhura, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors, adding that higher U.S. tariffs are an impediment to growth that India cannot afford right now.
“Weaker credit growth, weaker nominal GDP growth and warnings of weakening asset quality at the banks will continue to keep foreign investors on the sidelines,” Dhura said.
Equity analysts in India see corporate earnings growth as more closely correlated with nominal growth. Slower nominal GDP growth translates into weaker corporate revenue and profits, which can make stocks look overvalued.
Nominal GDP growth for the current financial year is expected to be 8.5%-9%, the lowest in two decades outside the COVID-19 pandemic, which could keep earnings and equity markets under pressure, analysts at Jefferies said in a report on Friday.
India’s benchmark Nifty index has risen about 4% so far this year, making it the third worst-performing across MSCI Asia countries this year, after Thailand and Indonesia.
Foreign investors have sold a net $15 billion in Indian equities so far, including $4 billion in outflows in August, when U.S. President Donald Trump hit India with tariffs of as much as 50%.
Indian consumer staples struggled in the April-June quarter, with Hindustan Unilever reporting subdued revenue growth of 4% and Colgate Palmolive India posting a 4% decline.
“In our view, markets remain on the expensive side, and we expect the impact of tariffs to lead to further earnings downgrades over the next 1-2 months,” said Peeyush Mittal, portfolio manager at Matthews Asia.
“Accordingly, our near-term is cautious.”