Trade policy uncertainty has become a major source of global instability. Sudden shifts in tariffs, subsidies or restrictions fuel volatility.
Policy changes in one country can send shockwaves across the globe, disrupting suppliers, manufacturers and markets. The United States’ recent policy shifts illustrate this. As the world’s largest importer, even modest changes reshape supply chains and alter global trade flows.
Uncertainty as a strategy
Policy uncertainty is rarely accidental. Governments recalibrate trade rules in response to domestic pressures and sometimes use ambiguity to gain leverage in negotiations.
For decades, multilateral and regional agreements discouraged abrupt shifts and stabilized flows, with uncertainty mostly limited to episodes like Brexit, COVID-19 or US–China trade tensions. But in 2025, with weakened rules and fierce competition for critical raw materials, uncertainty has soared to record levels.
The cost of unpredictability
Trade policy uncertainty weighs on the global economy in three key ways.
- Higher costs, slower growth. Companies must carry excess inventory, hedge against losses and reconfigure supply chains, raising costs and discouraging investment.
- Risks to financial stability. Sudden shifts unsettle exchange rates and weaken investor confidence, capital flows and credit conditions.
- Erosion of trust. Weaker rules and unilateral actions fuel retaliation, making global cooperation harder.
Timing magnifies the disruption
Uncertainty over when measures will apply often triggers pre-emptive reactions. Firms rush shipments before tariff deadlines – a practice known as “front-loading” – often switching to faster and more costly forms of transport. For example, air shipments to the US jumped nearly 10% the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period a year before.
Overall imports to the US surged in the first quarter as goods were front-loaded, then dropped sharply in the second quarter, once tariffs took hold – showing that uncertainty itself can be more disruptive than tariffs.
Front-loading is more feasible for high-value, low-volume goods – the kind of goods advanced economies export the most. By contrast, least developed countries rely more on exports of bulky, low-value commodities that are harder to front-load.
Small firms in these countries struggle most to adjust, constrained by limited credit, weaker infrastructure and products that cannot easily be moved in response to sudden policy shifts. These constraints deepen their vulnerabilities.
Diversification key for resilience
Two factors can reduce vulnerabilities: diversified export markets and participation in trade agreements.
- Firms with multiple markets can redirect shipments when one closes, cushioning losses.
- Countries with broader export bases offset downturns in one region with gains elsewhere.
- Trade agreements provide rules and dispute settlement mechanisms, reducing shocks and encouraging long-term investment.
China’s recent trade patterns show the value of diversification. In the second quarter of 2025, its exports to the world rose even as shipments to the US fell, showing how multiple markets can cushion the impact of unpredictable policies.
The way forward
Predictability is essential for international trade. The report calls for practical steps to restore stability and strengthen resilience:
- Advance notice of policy changes so firms and partners can adapt in time.
- Clear, data-driven trade measures to give investors and businesses confidence.
- International coordination through UNCTAD, the World Trade Organization and others to avoid retaliatory cycles.
- Stronger trade agreements with effective dispute settlement to reduce shocks.
- Diversified export markets to cushion the impact of sudden shifts.
Stable and predictable trade policies are critical not only for sustaining growth but also for keeping development on track in the most vulnerable economies.