INTENSE rainfall is not uncommon in our plains and mountains. Rainfall exceeding 200mm has occurred several times in every province of Pakistan. ‘Climate change’, ‘cloudburst’ and ‘urban flooding’ are only recent additions to our media lexicon. Flood disasters, landslides, furious hill torrent flows and terrible droughts have been causing loss of life and damage to property, crops and infrastructure for decades. However, a hysterical media and a clumsy social media have sparked paranoia. The cacophony they have raised has kept us from discussing the underlying causes of these disasters. Regurgitating climate change and cloudburst rhetoric will not prevent catastrophic events.
Three human-induced factors, in particular, have made the hydro-climatic events more intense. Rampant deforestation that has denuded mountains of their green cover, increased obstructions on waterways that impede natural flows and climate-insensitive infrastructure are the root cause of the havoc. August’s second half proved calamitous for the provinces and Gilgit-Baltistan. In one week, the number of casualties dwarfed the total toll of the previous five weeks.
The disaster in these areas did not result from a few abnormal downpours or landslides. Havoc was being nurtured in the belly of the mountains for decades. Malakand, famous for its dense forests, is now infamous for its menacing pace of illegal deforestation. The Swat valley has several areas where deforestation takes place. The massive logging in Bahrain, Madyan, Kalam, Matta, Malam Jabba, Gabin Jabba and other areas is no secret. The woodlots policy has been blatantly abused in these areas. A news report last year revealed that up to 15 to 20 timber-loaded trucks were being transported to Punjab every day. Forests are a natural glue that protect mountains from fragmentation and abrasion. As forest cover thins out, the mountains are exposed to gushing flows. When natural barriers are removed, these flows attain a ferocious velocity that erodes big boulders and rocks.
Boulders roll down these denuded hills into roaring streams that rise from high altitudes and plummet sharply to thousands of metres. Buner, which endured terrible devastation, inclines upwards from 360 metres in the south to reach a maximum height of 2,910m at the Dosara Peak in the north. Given such drastic variations in altitude, a bout of intense rainfall can generate torrents of unimaginable potency. Forests in Swat were ruthlessly devoured during 2007 to 2009 when the Taliban seized the territory.
The disaster was not caused by a few abnormal showers.
Kashmir tells a similar story. A news report last month mentioned that floods in the Neelum Valley brought a huge bounty of illegally cut timber to Nauseri Dam near Muzaffarabad. Clandestine deforestation in the area intensified the floods. Research based on variations in forest cover maps in 2023 concluded that GB lost over 1,700 square kilometres of forest cover in two decades. It disclosed that Chilas subdivision witnessed the highest rate of deforestation between 2000 and 2010 when over 8,600 acres of forest vanished from the map. Darel/Tangir and Astore ranked second and third in this race to the bottom. These areas felt the impact of the recent devastation.
The upper Indus Basin is dotted with more than 3,000 glacial lakes that burst due to heavy rains and generated lethal flows. GB’s population has nearly doubled since 1998. New settlements have been created. Careless tourism has further tested the fragility of the ecosystem. The burgeoning population, especially the poor, tend to occupy empty land in
the mountains, the river plains, forests and deserts everywhere in the country, as witnessed in the floodplains of Punjab and Sindh, where large numbers of people were displaced from katcha areas due to the devastating floods in the last week of August. As admitted by Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, Sialkot was submerged due to encroachments hindering the waterways. The dry beds of the Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab rivers were massively encroached upon and hence witnessed damage and displacement when the floods roared in after four decades.
Encroachments have clogged the waterways in the urban and rural areas. Infrastructure has been developed without giving any thought to the impact of the raging climatic events. From the mountain peaks to the coastline, a comprehensive climate audit and a grand overhaul of the ecosystem has become a necessity.
Recurring disasters in the mountains of Swat and GB and the floodplains of southern Punjab and Sindh need to be scrutinised from a different angle. Putting together the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle, a sad picture reveals itself: disasters are triggered more by frequent and sustained bursts of misgovernance than cloudbursts.
The writer is a civil society professional.
nmemon2004@yahoo.com
Published in Dawn, September 2nd, 2025