Dwayne Johnson will rock awards season

He was a superhero in Black Adam, an archaeologist in Jumanji, and a demigod in Moana. Is Dwayne Johnson about to add “Oscar nominee” to his résumé?

On Oct. 3, the actor and former professional wrestler known as the Rock brings the story of mixed martial artist and UFC fighter Mark Kerr to the big screen in A24’s The Smashing Machine. Johnson stars alongside Oscar-nominated actress Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) in the film that’s written and directed by indie darling Benny Safdie.

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Kerr rose to prominence during the early days of the Ultimate Fighting Championship while privately struggling with a serious drug addiction. To portray Kerr, Johnson underwent a dramatic physical transformation, aided by two-time Academy Award-winning makeup artist Kazu Hiro (Darkest Hour, Bombshell). The performance is already generating awards buzz, particularly after the film’s debut at the Venice Film Festival. Let’s take a look at The Smashing Machine‘s instant Oscar predictions.

PICTURE

The Smashing Machine currently ranks within the top 20 of Gold Derby’s Oscar odds for Best Picture, with a 5 percent chance of being nominated. Movies about wrestlers have received Oscar nominations in the past, but never in the top category. The Wrestler (2008) earned acting bids for Mickey Rourke and Marisa Tomei, while Foxcatcher (2014) received five total nominations, including for Steve Carell and Mark Ruffalo. In recent years, The Iron Claw (2023) starring Zac Efron and Unstoppable (2024) starring Jharrel Jerome were both KO’ed at the Oscars, earning zero nominations. The Smashing Machine is now hoping to make history for wrestling films.

Best Picture

Contender

Odds

1.

Sinners

91.9%

2.

Wicked: For Good

85.0%

3.

Marty Supreme

83.7%

4.

Hamnet

81.5%

5.

Bugonia

74.5%

6.

Sentimental Value

73.4%

7.

Jay Kelly

64.9%

8.

Rental Family

63.9%

9.

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

62.5%

10.

One Battle After Another

55.1%

11.

Frankenstein

38.5%

12.

It Was Just an Accident

33.5%

13.

After the Hunt

30.0%

14.

Avatar: Fire and Ash

29.6%

15.

A House of Dynamite

17.9%

16.

No Other Choice

9.0%

17.

The Secret Agent

5.9%

18.

Roofman

4.8%

19.

The Smashing Machine

4.8%

20.

Ballad of a Small Player

4.7%

DIRECTING AND SCREENPLAY

Benny Safdie was recently an awards contender for directing (with his brother, Josh Safdie) and editing Uncut Gems, getting in at the Critics Choice Awards but missing the Oscars. Now he’s in the conversation again for his solo directorial debut on The Smashing Machine, which he also wrote. Safdie sits at 20th for Best Director, per the Gold Derby data.

Best Director

Contender

Odds

1.

Ryan Coogler

Sinners

87.6%

2.

Chloe Zhao

Hamnet

79.8%

3.

Joachim Trier

Sentimental Value

70.2%

4.

Yorgos Lanthimos

Bugonia

53.0%

5.

Paul Thomas Anderson

One Battle After Another

37.4%

6.

Jafar Panahi

It Was Just an Accident

34.4%

7.

Josh Safdie

Marty Supreme

33.8%

8.

Hikari

Rental Family

24.1%

9.

Guillermo Del Toro

Frankenstein

15.6%

10.

Kathryn Bigelow

A House of Dynamite

10.6%

11.

Park Chan-wook

No Other Choice

7.0%

12.

Noah Baumbach

Jay Kelly

6.7%

13.

Derek Cianfrance

Roofman

4.6%

14.

Jon M. Chu

Wicked: For Good

4.1%

15.

Kleber Mendonca Filho

The Secret Agent

2.0%

16.

Nia DaCosta

Hedda

1.5%

17.

Kelly Reichardt

The Mastermind

1.2%

18.

Luca Guadagnino

After the Hunt

0.9%

19.

Edward Berger

Ballad of a Small Player

0.9%

20.

Benny Safdie

The Smashing Machine

0.7%

For Best Original Screenplay, his chances are slightly better, coming in at No. 16 for penning the biographical sports drama. Critics agree that Safdie avoided the typical sports movie conventions and tropes when crafting The Smashing Machine.

Best Original Screenplay

Contender

Odds

1.

Sinners

91.2%

2.

Marty Supreme

80.2%

3.

Sentimental Value

72.7%

4.

Jay Kelly

67.1%

5.

Rental Family

63.7%

6.

It Was Just an Accident

32.1%

7.

After the Hunt

31.9%

8.

A House of Dynamite

9.0%

9.

Weapons

6.5%

10.

Roofman

6.0%

11.

The Secret Agent

5.2%

12.

If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

2.3%

13.

Sorry, Baby

1.9%

14.

The Mastermind

1.3%

15.

Father, Mother, Sister, Brother

1.2%

16.

The Smashing Machine

0.9%

17.

Materialists

0.8%

18.

Ella McCay

0.8%

19.

Anemone

0.8%

20.

Blue Moon

0.6%

ACTING

Johnson has skyrocketed up the Gold Derby Best Actor chart in recent weeks, now coming in fifth place for a nomination. Taking on a physically demanding role in a sports movie has helped other leading men get into the category, including the aforementioned Rourke, Will Smith (Ali), Sylvester Stallone (Rocky), Denzel Washington (The Hurricane), plus Robert De Niro (Raging Bull), who won. Johnson’s character of the mixed martial artist, nicknamed the Smashing Machine, feels right at home on that list of former Best Actor Oscar nominees.

Best Actor

Contender

Odds

1.

Timothee Chalamet

Marty Supreme

66.4%

2.

Jeremy Allen White

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

64.5%

3.

Brendan Fraser

Rental Family

63.4%

4.

Michael B. Jordan

Sinners

54.4%

5.

Dwayne Johnson

The Smashing Machine

47.8%

6.

George Clooney

Jay Kelly

41.9%

7.

Jesse Plemons

Bugonia

33.6%

A24 has not yet confirmed whether Blunt will campaign in lead or supporting for playing Dawn Staples, the ex-wife of Mark Kerr. A final decision for her category placement will be made later. The British actress currently ranks in 10th place for Best Actress, and 50th place for Best Supporting Actress, but it’s still early this Oscar season and the odds are likely to change once a film is more widely seen.

Nominations for the 2026 Oscars will be announced Jan. 22.

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